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Pittsburgh PA spring 2017


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Just now, north pgh said:

Precipitation really shrinks on GFS. 1 inch line comes across Ohio-Pa border. Too close for comfort.

Crazy to see that precip come down that much. GFS is off from all other models so far. Looks like the track is similar, but the GFS just doesn't drop as much snow this side of the storm

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Nobody in the Pittsburgh area is going to know what this is truly gonna bring until it happens. We could wind up with only a few inches, but (I truly believe) we could end up getting a foot plus out of this. This is a MASSIVE, complex system and we're right on the a$$ end of it. Remember February 6th 2010? I spent that night in a hotel near the airport in anticipation for 3-6 inches. I figured I'd "play it safe" since I had a flight to CA in the morning, and didn't wanna run into trouble fighting rush hour traffic to make my flight on time. I woke up the following morning to 2 feet, my flight was canceled indefinitely, and I spent the next 6 hours driving from Moon twp back home to Saltsburg in a white, alien landscape. So......I say anything is possible atm.  

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4 minutes ago, snowsux said:

Nobody in the Pittsburgh area is going to know what this is truly gonna bring until it happens. We could wind up with only a few inches, but (I truly believe) we could end up getting a foot plus out of this. This is a MASSIVE, complex system and we're right on the a$$ end of it. Remember February 6th 2010? I spent that night in a hotel near the airport in anticipation for 3-6 inches. I figured I'd "play it safe" since I had a flight to CA in the morning, and didn't wanna run into trouble fighting rush hour traffic to make my flight on time. I woke up the following morning to 2 feet, my flight was canceled indefinitely, and I spent the next 6 hours driving from Moon twp back home to Saltsburg in a white, alien landscape. So......I say anything is possible atm.  

At this point with the 2010 storm most of us knew we were getting a foot plus.

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1 minute ago, snowsux said:

Lol, Kevin Benson said that if numbers had to be adjusted, they'd be adjusted up instead of down. Now 2 models contradicting that idea a few hrs later.

The local mets are always a model behind it seems. He looks at the 18z models going up. He apparently doesn't have the new data. They will go down at 6:00 am and then adjust accordingly.

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Some of you guys act like feb 5-6 2010 didn't have HUGE model support for a 20" storm for 5 days. There was some slight wobbling in and out of the excessive totals, but to be clear -- there was a TON of support it was coming in the Pgh area.  The final pre-event NWS forecast for PIT was "8-14 with locally up to 16"". This of course went up through the night, but didn't start as low As some recall.

Now, The broadcast TV mets were a very conservative 4-8" (except for Bowman who had 8-12" in the morning, only to have JV knock it down in the afternoon)

They were conservative because because while we were on the good side of 20"+ modeled totals, they dropped off RAPIDLY to the north and west. A slight shift and it would have been a moderate event. Thus, much of the general public was "surprised" as the local forecasts were low.

The other thing about the local forecasts that ticked a lot of us off was that there was 12" on the ground at 11:00, and at least 2 of the locals had TOTALS like 12-15". The 0z American models gave us in excess of an additional foot. And even if you backed out the 3-4" that had fallen since 7 PM, it was looking very much like 20"+ was happening.

So that's the way it evolved...promise.

It wasn't a bunch of models showing 4" that turned in to 21"

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2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Some of you guys act like feb 5-6 2010 didn't have HUGE model support for a 20" storm for 5 days. There was some slight wobbling in and out of the excessive totals, but to be clear -- there was a TON of support it was coming in the Pgh area.  The final NWS forecast for PIT was "8-14 with locally up to 16"". This of course went up through the night, but didn't start as low As some recall.

Now, The broadcast TV mets were a very conservative 4-8" (except for Bowman who had 8-12" in the morning, only to have JV knock it down in the afternoon)

They were conservative because because while we were on the good side of 20"+ modeled totals, they dropped off RAPIDLY to the north and west. A slight shift and it would have been a moderate event. Thus, much of the general public was "surprised" as the local forecasts were low.

The other thing about the local forecasts that ticked a lot of us off was that there was 12" on the ground at 11:00, and at least 2 of the locals had TOTALS like 12-15". The 0z American models gave us in excess of an additional foot. And even if you backed out the 3-4" that had fallen since 7 PM, it was looking very much like 20"+ was happening.

So that's the way it evolved...promise.

It wasn't a bunch of models showing 4" that turned in to 21"

Its exactly what i remembered, 5 days out there was great support. The local broadcast TV mets were extremely conservative which made the public caught off guard, i don't like the local broadcast TV met because most of them are lousy at best. Regarding this system my safe bet right now would be 6 inches but with being on the back edge of the system. Just an slight shift either way could be a game changer. East shift we get light amounts, and West shift we get significant to major amounts over the area. We will not know till the storm starts to organize in about 24 hours

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1 minute ago, Burghblizz said:

Some of you guys act like feb 5-6 2010 didn't have HUGE model support for a 20" storm for 5 days. There was some slight wobbling in and out of the excessive totals, but to be clear -- there was a TON of support it was coming in the Pgh area.  The final NWS forecast for PIT was "8-14 with locally up to 16"". This of course went up through the night, but didn't start as low As some recall.

Now, The broadcast TV mets were a very conservative 4-8" (except for Bowman who had 8-12" in the morning, only to have JV knock it down in the afternoon)

They were conservative because because while we were on the good side of 20"+ modeled totals, they dropped off RAPIDLY to the north and west. A slight shift and it would have been a moderate event. Thus, much of the general public was "surprised" as the local forecasts were low.

The other thing about the local forecasts that ticked a lot of us off was that there was 12" on the ground at 11:00, and at least 2 of the locals had TOTALS like 12-15". The 0z American models gave us in excess of an additional foot. And even if you backed out the 3-4" that had fallen since 7 PM, it was looking very much like 20"+ was happening.

So that's the way it evolved...promise.

It wasn't a bunch of models showing 4" that turned in to 21"

Like I said, I wasn't watching the models. I just listened to KDKA, watched TWC in my hotel room, and caught the evening news that night. That was seven years and several thousand bong loads ago for me, so perhaps my memory's a little foggy as to the specifics as far as numbers go. All I know is that I was surprised as hell by what fell that night.

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1 minute ago, snowsux said:

Like I said, I wasn't watching the models. I just listened to KDKA, watched TWC in my hotel room, and caught the evening news that night. That was seven years and several thousand bong loads ago for me, so perhaps my memory's a little foggy as to the specifics as far as numbers go. All I know is that I was surprised as hell by what fell that night.

JV on KDKA had a rough month, as we got almost 50" and he probably called for half that. 

The big storm the next week wasn't a direct hit, but had 8-10" totals and was wind driven as the storm I believe retrograded in upstate New York. 

His call of breezy with snow showers, turned into a blizzard warning for Westmoreland county, and close for other areas.

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Just now, Burghblizz said:

JV on KDKA had a rough month, as we got almost 50" and he probably called for half that. 

The big storm the next week wasn't a direct hit, but had 8-10" totals and was wind driven as the storm I believe retrograded in upstate New York. 

His call of breezy with snow showers, turned into a blizzard warning for Westmoreland county, and close for other areas.

My flight was basically a 1-day trip to CA for a funeral. I missed that, and 48 hours later my then-girlfriend and I drove down to Ft. Lauderdale to embark on a Royal Caribbean cruise for the remainder of the month. I missed all the action after that up here, but came home in early March to find plenty of snow still on the ground.

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2 minutes ago, snowsux said:

My flight was basically a 1-day trip to CA for a funeral. I missed that, and 48 hours later my then-girlfriend and I drove down to Ft. Lauderdale to embark on a Royal Caribbean cruise for the remainder of the month. I missed all the action after that up here, but came home in early March to find plenty of snow still on the ground.

That was a great month.

Although some places to the east literally doubled their snowiest ever months We kind of edged ours out

i still remember thinking "what could have been", proving this can be an insatiable hobby if u let it be.

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Hate to be a party pooper but watching you guys track this thing has been hilarious. This has shades of 2014 written all over. The low hugged the coast but we were just too far West and north to receive anything significant. The srefs are garbage and shouldn't be taken seriously. At this point be happy about the 4-6 and hope for more. Once again we are fringed literally except every other part of the state. This hobby is becoming tiring and I'm losing the enjoyment from tracking storms. I'm starting to accept the reality that our area sucks for big snows. Sorry for the rant but this isn't 2010. We aren't gonna get 12+. We will be lucky to break 6. Il

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5 minutes ago, SteelCity08 said:

Positive trends all day ruined in a span of an hour. Not sure why any of us put ourselves through this lol. The para nam and gfs were very sobering.

Exactly my thoughts. Maybe 6z changes but even with the more western track the gfs just cut qpf down which kills us too. 

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