shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM 4k and NAM 3k are sweet. crushers. Nudge East near our latitude keeping the snow going and getting parts of the region under the deform band. Good run imo. Not perfect and yet another solution. Steady as she goes. Well that's good, because the 12k NAM doesn't give any snow to Lower Bucks, Philadelphia County, Chester County and everyone east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Well that's good, because the 12k NAM doesn't give any snow to Lower Bucks, Philadelphia County, Chester County and everyone east of there.12km is too far W imo. 3k has done well with several of our "events" this season. Im not hugging it but I wont toss it either. These rates are insane: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: PHL 16" on 3k NAM and still getting hammered Tuesday AM. Do you buy that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4k and 3k NAM are awesome. We get the WAA and the CCB snows as the low gets cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Do you buy that? Hells no lol, not verbatim anyway. I do buy convective lift and a dynamic mid March developing storm with insane qpf rates (qpf bomb) somewhere in our region. Something to watch. Could be some real big winners nearby with crazy lollis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Fwiw, 12k thermals are wonky. If the low were occluding and cutting off I could buy the uber warm look, but the critical levels should be crashing. Couple that with the extreme dynamics, frontogenic lift, and intense convection exploding NW of the slp those rates even on the 12k should have borderline areas as blinding snow. The trend is now also to have heaviest precip falling before sunup. Another plus. The mega precip rates on the 12k echo the 3k so there is support. The 3k (the highest resolution) shows what could happen if dynamic cooling occurs with those insanely heavy rates. NAM was a solid step imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hells no lol Shiet no! Thinking about punching myself in the face at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 And to think if you want to stay up for the euro, you'll lose an hour of sleep after as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, shemATC said: And to think if you want to stay up for the euro, you'll lose an hour of sleep after as well..... Just sleep an hour later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 We find out real soon if the NAM is onto anything or if better radiosonde data sampling makes a difference with the big boys 0z Sunday runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Shiet no! Thinking about punching myself in the face at this point. Why?? If someone held a gun to my head right now and said make a call for our area (DYL reporting station) I would say 7-14" with no hesitation. Thats a damn good storm dude. I dont get the gloom and doom in here, I really dont lol. I know its been a rough winter but this is a nice way to end a lousy season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why?? If someone held a gun to my head right now and said make a call for our area (DYL reporting station) I would say 7-14" with no hesitation. Thats a damn good storm dude. I dont get the gloom and doom in here, I really dont lol. I know its been a rough winter but this is a nice way to end a lousy season. It's because we've seen the 7-14 @48 hours turn into 1-3. You may think you can handle Lucy, the rest of us have PTSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 And to think if you want to stay up for the euro, you'll lose an hour of sleep after as well.....Just look at it in the AM. Sacrificing sleep to make tomorrow a wreck just to see data "hot off the presses" isnt worth it imo when u can see the same exact data output when you wake up after a good night's sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just look at it in the AM. Sacrificing sleep to make tomorrow a wreck just to see data "hot off the presses" isnt worth it imo when u can see the same exact data output when you wake up after a good night's sleep. I don't ever stay up for that anymore. Just poking fun at those who do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It's because we've seen the 7-14 @48 hours turn into 1-3. You may think you can handle Lucy, the rest of us have PTSD.Lucy cant handle this. That Comcast building top floor has her name all over it. She better not whiff us. Like I said earlier, Lucy has everything, all the ingredients, lined up that we need. It looks like she will allow Mother Nature a fg attempt for realz this time. Its up to MN now to nail the fg and not hit the upright or shank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It's because we've seen the 7-14 @48 hours turn into 1-3. You may think you can handle Lucy, the rest of us have PTSD. I doubt severely that this turns into a 1-3" event for my area btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Lucy cant handle this. That Comcast building top floor has her name all over it. She better not whiff us. Like I said earlier, Lucy has everything, all the ingredients, lined up that we need. It looks like she will allow Mother Nature a fg attempt for realz this time. Its up to MN now to nail the fg and not hit the upright or shank it. Lucy will leave the ball but just flip the laces, and Mother Nature will be Finkel... or is it Einhorn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Lol this has to fake, here ya go shemATC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yup, that looks about right. Less than half an inch, Doylestown with 3", and Scranton with 3 feet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 48hr RGEM extrapolated looks like it would be a big hit up here. Slp is developing stronger and farther South. NS trying to get involved. Thus far 0z is about as good as one could want to see irt to trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yup, that looks about right. Less than half an inch, Doylestown with 3", and Scranton with 3 feet.....Yeah, and 4-5 foot+ widespread totals in much of NY State. That is either photoshopped or a programming algorithmic error on that website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Lol this has to fake, here ya go shemATC. Holy crap, what a screw job. I only get 25 while Binghamton ends with 53. It just ain't fair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah, and 4-5 foot+ widespread totals in much of NY State. That is either photoshopped or a programming algorithmic error on that website. LOL, so you don't think Syracuse should prepare for close to 6 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Okay here is reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Actually it must have been from the 12k NAM, because, while it in NO WAY matches the obscene numbers, the distribution matches. I guess Kuchera just means multiply totals by 5 or 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: Just sleep an hour later Well, it will be Sunday after all - a day of rest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why?? If someone held a gun to my head right now and said make a call for our area (DYL reporting station) I would say 7-14" with no hesitation. Thats a damn good storm dude. I dont get the gloom and doom in here, I really dont lol. I know its been a rough winter but this is a nice way to end a lousy season. Hell, I'd take 6 in right now (no sexual comments) .. It's March and we have snow on ground and it's f'en cold out there. What more can we ask for? I'll easily take a walk and be happy...it's certainly cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Even with the rain that the 4k NAM brings in, its still dumps the frozen stuff here in SJ. Even 6 inches would be this winter's highest total here....and in mid March no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS more tucked in. SLP just off Norfolk @hr 54. Maybe the NAM was on to something. Or it's just model noise with where the SLP gets labeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS is a South Jersey snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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