Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bliz299 said: OK, I'll take that! Quite honestly, though, I would be happy with 10" if all you guys north & west got bumped back up the rest. However it seems right now the trend may end up no one's friend. I was wondering if you would chime in on the storm. I know there is a poster from Cape May on here. You need the perfect set-up to get the big snows...... Best of Luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Animal said: I was wondering if you would chime in on the storm. I know there is a poster from Cape May on here. You need the perfect set-up to get the big snows...... Best of Luck! "Thank you, thank you very much" as Elvis would say. Now, reality. Probably do need the perfect set up now. It just seems this storm has the potential be good for all in the form. I know that's not easy anytime let alone mid-March, but it's sure teasing us! Best of luck to ALL of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM way west. Can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Winter Storm Watch issued for the entire area a few min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18z GFS garden variety SECS out to sea she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 OP ECM and GFS acting like they hit a block at the latitude of Delaware and skirt east some crazy stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z GFS garden variety SECS out to sea she goes Yeah, really. Kind of pathetic what the GFS just did. After all those runs pummeling almost everyone all the way up into New England, now it wants to exit the storm stage right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's still a good sized storm on the GFS. Just have to move those blue tones a bit more west again for the huge totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18 gfs is still a good dump of snow in the philly area. Talk of historical snow totals are slim at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18 gfs is still a good dump of snow in the philly area. Talk of historical snow totals are slim at this point.At least this one run of the 18Z GFS model.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Weenies never learn LOL. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me for the 29th time at least and I'll just never learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 obviously wrong. Monmouth County didn't jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS ensemble mean is hilarious bad, the OP must be the single outlier to the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS ensemble mean is hilarious bad, the OP must be the single outlier to the southeast Is there a particular reason why the Euro and GFS OPs would both be eastern outliers like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 This poster has been MIA, but solid as you can get. Recommended reading this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The GFS drops 7 millibars in 6 hours, yet turns hard right like it's a push over. Also it's amazing the difference in snow maps between WxBell and Tidbits. Tidbits gives Allentown 3" and WxBell 9-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The GFS drops 7 millibars in 6 hours, yet turns hard right like it's a push over. Also it's amazing the difference in snow maps between WxBell and Tidbits. Tidbits gives Allentown 3" and WxBell 9-11.Maybe Allentown NJ you're talking about? But not Allentown pa. Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, shemATC said: The GFS drops 7 millibars in 6 hours, yet turns hard right like it's a push over. Also it's amazing the difference in snow maps between WxBell and Tidbits. Tidbits gives Allentown 3" and WxBell 9-11. When WxBell first began they had algorithm issues with their snow maps. It was thought to have been addressed a few years back, but I just ignore them like click bait. The post with the NYC link has great info as to why the drop off in QPF. There is an upper level low that closes off in western PA and then shuts off the "fire hose" from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Maybe Allentown NJ you're talking about? But not Allentown pa. Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Here is what i see when you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: When WxBell first began they had algorithm issues with their snow maps. It was thought to have been addressed a few years back, but I just ignore them like click bait. The post with the NYC link has great info as to why the drop off in QPF. There is an upper level low that closes off in western PA and then shuts off the "fire hose" from the Atlantic. That post by jets was outstanding. Myself and probably most others only look at the 500mb and surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, wkd said: That post by jets was outstanding. Myself and probably most others only look at the 500mb and surface. I was wondering where he went. i recall his first post in the NYC forum. He is definitely a top 5 poster on this entire site. This post alone and what I learned from it was worth the the bust potential alone. He couldn't have posted this info at a better time. So good LOL, posters are even enamored with his writing ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I was wondering where he went. i recall his first post in the NYC forum. He is definitely a top 5 poster on this entire site. This post alone and what I learned from it was worth the the bust potential alone. He couldn't have posted this info at a better time. So good LOL, posters are even enamored with his writing ability. His location is very close to where I live. Wish he would post in here some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Here is what i see when you post.That's because he's using Tapatalk. The image post service is not functioning properly.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ok, so I forgot Allentown PA was that far down in Lehigh County, but if you look at this map, it shows that most of Lehigh county is 3-6 (north to south respectively) while the WxBell map takes 10-12 almost to Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow, I'm glad I didn't look at the models today (well now I did anyway). It looked like we were locking in a decent snowstorm across the board, but now who knows what. Will it continue to trend with less QPF and east? Or will it go back to a HECS? I know which one I'm betting on. And speaking of model algorithms, the most reasonable and realistic most of the time is EuroWx, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Newman said: Wow, I'm glad I didn't look at the models today (well now I did anyway). It looked like we were locking in a decent snowstorm across the board, but now who knows what. Will it continue to trend with less QPF and east? Or will it go back to a HECS? I know which one I'm betting on. And speaking of model algorithms, the most reasonable and realistic most of the time is EuroWx, in my opinion. Last year's HECS had a hiccup about 4 days out to right before onshore sampling started ... lucy and the gfs went out on a date together while the Nam operatonal did the heavy lifting for a run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, zenmsav6810 said: Last year's HECS had a hiccup about 4 days out to right before onshore sampling started ... lucy and the gfs went out on a date together while the Nam operatonal did the heavy lifting for a run or two. Oh I remember that from last year. DT was talking trash on the NAM and praising the oh holy Euro for being correct. I'm so glad the NAM scored a coup on that one just for that reason. Anyway, this storm is obviously completely different than last year. I'm leaning further east and less QPF just to lower my expectations and because we've been screwed all winter so why not again but like last year, sometimes the Operational models hiccup 3-4 days out but come back later. We'll see what happens with tonight's runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Newman said: Oh I remember that from last year. DT was talking trash on the NAM and praising the oh holy Euro for being correct. I'm so glad the NAM scored a coup on that one just for that reason. Anyway, this storm is obviously completely different than last year. I'm leaning further east and less QPF just to lower my expectations and because we've been screwed all winter so why not again but like last year, sometimes the Operational models hiccup 3-4 days out but come back later. We'll see what happens with tonight's runs! How bad was that though a pro getting lucy'd by the nam. Beings that their might be a closed secondary this might play out as a weaker version of a miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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