The Iceman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:14 AM, delijoe said: 0z GFS is rain for basically everyone I-95 on SE and even interior areas don't get much. The track is much further inland. If the Euro caves I think we're in trouble. Expand awful awful analysis. read more, post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Sharp ENE turn at hour 90 helps many weenies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:31 AM, The Iceman said: awful awful analysis. read more, post less Expand Hate that stuff...Joe needs to spend less time in the deli and more time learning models!! This would be fun, even at half these amounts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:31 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: I think between the dynamics of the storm bombing and actually having a good airmass in place to start keeps the r/s line at bay while the thermal levels begin collapsing s and e toward the slp center. Expand ^^^^^THIS!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:36 AM, snowwors2 said: Hate that stuff...Joe needs to spend less time in the deli and more time learning models!! This would be fun, even at half these amounts!! Expand shemATC is gonna lose it when he sees this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ukie sounds like a big hit as well per MA thread....no details yet. Good signals still. I promised myself I wouldnt lock into this big storm scenario until 12z Sunday earliest and I still admittedly remain skeptical even with all of the positive supporting data staring me in the face. Intrigued.....borderline excited, but I am not sold yet. Ghosts of March '01 haunt me to this day. Safely conservative and cautiously optimistic for me is the way to go with this for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:39 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Ukie sounds like a big hit as well per MA thread....no details yet. Good signals still. I promised myself I wouldnt lock into this big storm scenario until 12z Sunday earliest and I still admittedly remain skeptical even with all of the positive supporting data staring me in the face. Intrigued.....borderline excited, but I am not sold yet. Ghosts of March '01 haunt me to this day. Safely conservative for me is the way to go with this for now. Expand Not a bad idea with March 2001 as the #7 analog for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:39 AM, Violentweatherfan said: shemATC is gonna lose it when he sees this. Bucks County quite the gradient.....26" NW part of the county to 5" SE part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:47 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Bucks County quite the gradient.....26" NW part of the county to 5" SE part of the county. Expand big shift towards euro though...not too concerned. I mean there's a chance we see that gradient but it's going to change every 6 hours. the shift towards the euro is all I wanted to see at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:47 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Bucks County quite the gradient.....26" NW part of the county to 5" SE part of the county. Expand A lot of mixing, or dry slotting? Looks great for here, but that gradient is still a little scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:52 AM, The Iceman said: big shift towards euro though...not too concerned. I mean there's a chance we see that gradient but it's going to change every 6 hours. the shift towards the euro is all I wanted to see at this time. Expand This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:39 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Ukie sounds like a big hit as well per MA thread....no details yet. Good signals still. I promised myself I wouldnt lock into this big storm scenario until 12z Sunday earliest and I still admittedly remain skeptical even with all of the positive supporting data staring me in the face. Intrigued.....borderline excited, but I am not sold yet. Ghosts of March '01 haunt me to this day. Safely conservative and cautiously optimistic for me is the way to go with this for now. Expand They haunt me as well. Keep tellin myself models are much better now though. I think they were riding the eta back then because it was having a good winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:53 AM, mattinpa said: A lot of mixing, or dry slotting? Looks great for here, but that gradient is still a little scary. Expand On the this gfs run it's most due lost precip to rain. Also, I don't think we need to worry about dryslotting at all since this isn't a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:05 AM, Violentweatherfan said: On the this gfs run it's most due lost precip to rain. Also, I don't think we need to worry about dryslotting at all since this isn't a Miller B. Expand Thanks. Heard the GFS mean was east, the Ukie s good and the Canadian is most east but better. So not too worried about the GFS OP run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:11 AM, mattinpa said: Thanks. Heard the GFS mean was east, the Ukie s good and the Canadian is most east but better. So not too worried about the GFS OP run yet. Expand Over in the NYC forum someone posted the op... I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 I meant ensemble mean sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:15 AM, Violentweatherfan said: I meant ensemble mean sorry Expand Thanks - looks very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 0z Gefs mean = 1.6" qpf for Philly region‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 MA forum saying they taint on the Euro, but NYC forum very happy. I guess we are fine here based on the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 6:22 AM, mattinpa said: MA forum saying they taint on the Euro, but NYC forum very happy. I guess we are fine here based on the maps? Expand It's the best ECM run for all of us so far, widespread 18-22" SEPA-Jersey and North Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 6:25 AM, RedSky said: It's the best ECM run for all of us so far, widespread 18-22" SEPA-Jersey and North Delaware Expand Great to hear! I was a bit confused because of the different reactions. I'll check back tomorrow. Good night, all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's a BEAUT CLARK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 6:25 AM, RedSky said: It's the best ECM run for all of us so far, widespread 18-22" SEPA-Jersey and North Delaware Expand few lollipops near 30 inches moving north and west of PHL into NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 6:43 AM, Animal said: few lollipops near 30 inches moving north and west of PHL into NNJ Expand Wait until Newman wakes up and sees the Kuchera making Berks ground zero with 34" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 6:49 AM, RedSky said: Wait until Newman wakes up and sees the Kuchera making Berks ground zero with 34" lol Expand This storm may "save"Glenn "Hurricane's" Schwartz winter forecast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 6:49 AM, RedSky said: Wait until Newman wakes up and sees the Kuchera making Berks ground zero with 34" lol Expand Not a fan of those kuchera maps, better offf ignoring them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 6:52 AM, Violentweatherfan said: Not a fan of those kuchera maps, better offf ignoring them. Expand Fully aware they can be way off learned the hard way in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The usually conservative EUROwx map 24-30" large portion of eastern PA, upper portions Bucks,Montco, Chester north. January 2016 levels. Far from nailed down however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Okay sorry about earlier I was looking at a premature map... better to say the 0z GFS is a close shave for SE of I-95... I find it hard to believe that PHL could get 16" and TTN 6" in this setup but whatever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 6:52 AM, Violentweatherfan said: Not a fan of those kuchera maps, better offf ignoring them. Expand Me neither. I look at them for comparison, but base what might happen off the 10:1 maps. Less chance for heartbreak that way. Anything above and beyond the 10:1 accumulation is bonus snow...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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