shemATC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 SLP is farther east, but not as much of a thump close to the R/S line. Gradient for SEPA is litterly right along the river. 15 miles takes you from 12" to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Noise at this range probably but GFS really cut totals. Biggest takeaway this run is the Western slp trend finally stopped. The qpf noise is probably more a function of the GFS coming in line aloft with other guidance like the Euro more than anything else and adjusting features at the surface. I'm willing to bet totals spike again at either 0z or at 6z. Still, 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at for SE PA in mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 From what I have been reading from the MA forum is that the GFS is trending towards the Euro solution. This may benefit the MA forum more so than us up here, but i'll take it. Plenty of time to nudge east, for become more intense therefore drawing in colder air moving the r/s line east even if the slp isn't east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Noise at this range probably but GFS really cut totals. Biggest takeaway this run is the Western slp trend finally stopped. The qpf noise is probably more a function of the GFS coming in line aloft with other guidance like the Euro more than anything else. I'm willing to bet totals spike again at either 0z or at 6z. Still, 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at for SE PA in mid-March. I'm looking for a day off and this will do it. I want January 2016 wind too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Noise at this range probably but GFS really cut totals. Biggest takeaway this run is the Western slp trend finally stopped. The qpf noise is probably more a function of the GFS coming in line aloft with other guidance like the Euro more than anything else and adjusting features at the surface. I'm willing to bet totals spike again at either 0z or at 6z. Still, 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at for SE PA in mid-March. Or it was tougher trying to figure out what was left over from today's snow. This is the first run completely outside today's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, shemATC said: I cant remember when Levittown/Langhorne received only 6" while Newtown and north get 12", Ralph is probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 And this is my second fear. Within 10 miles of a fairly significant dryslot (Yes I'm getting a bit IMBY focused, but this storm has a potential to leave some people really lacking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Or it was tougher trying to figure out what was left over from today's snow. This is the first run completely outside today's event.Nah, I always use the 24 hour total snowfall maps to specifically avoid seeing possible totals from other events. Storm was hauling arse this run. Again though, I think this might just be noise as the GFS transitions towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 I was trying to figure out if this was a Miller A or Miller B storm and thought it was more like a hybrid of the two. Sure enough psuhoffman and bob chill both agreed, and dryslotting isn't such an issue......yet. Wait til tonight's gfs run to see if it falls in line with the euro, assuming the euro holds serve. I did say to check out the nyc forum for humor and did they deliver. "If I was the owner of this board, I would bring in grief counselors since we haven't had a 12" snowfall in the warmest winter to date"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I wouldn't worry too much about the drop in qpf on the GFS. If other guidance tonight and tomorrow AM begin to speed this thing up and we see significant qpf drops across the board, then we can say its a real trend. For now, biggest takeaway is track is off the coast rather than inland over the Western DE/MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 NBC (Glenn) and ABC (Cecily) are really playing the "potential" card....nothing more/nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 NBC (Glenn) and ABC (Cecily) are really playing the "potential" card....nothing more/nothing less. And rightfully so. Very tricky. Especially if this ticks west. Not much room on right goal post if you believe GFS. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: And rightfully so. Very tricky. Especially if this ticks west. Not much room on right goal post if you believe GFS. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Cant blame them, their "backyard" is quite large. Getting it right for everyone is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm jumping on board, why not. Were playing with house money at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: And rightfully so. Very tricky. Especially if this ticks west. Not much room on right goal post if you believe GFS. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Certainly...but more than normal..not even talking about it? Hell, Glenn doesn't even give a forecast any longer. He'll say "look at the bottom of the screen". WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Certainly...but more than normal..not even talking about it? Hell, Glenn doesn't even give a forecast any longer. He'll say "look at the bottom of the screen". WTF? I wonder if their feeling the impact of social media weather outlets, most if not all are very good and update more frequently. Think of the payroll that the their staff must be when it's possible it isn't in demand as much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I only have 24 hour intervals of European, but is 18z navgem identical to 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 actually its low placement at 12z Tuesday and 12z Wednesday is identical to 12z eps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Totally in NAM la la land, but Oz will make central PA very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM is a big-time interior crush job. Fast mover....in and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wxsim still on board with 16" to 22"....I will be watching from sunny Clearwater FL but tracking with all of you as whatever will be...will be Enjoy! Monday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Snow likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 14 to 29. Wind east-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the evening, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 21 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Snow likely. High 30. Wind chill ranging from 14 to 20. Wind east around 13 mph, gusting to 22 mph, in the morning, becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 0z GFS is rain for basically everyone I-95 on SE and even interior areas don't get much. The track is much further inland. If the Euro caves I think we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Total QPF line shows 2.5" cutting through central SEPA. The low is so close it's over south jersey yet 10 miles NW of I95 stays snow, outrageous wouldn't think that was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, delijoe said: 0z GFS is rain for basically everyone I-95 on SE and even interior areas don't get much. The track is much further inland. If the Euro caves I think we're in trouble. ^^^^^^^^Wrong!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS is getting close to Jan 2016 level QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Total QPF line shows 2.5" cutting through central SEPA. The low is so close it's over south jersey yet 10 miles NW of I95 stays snow, outrageous wouldn't think that was possible. yea that's impressive. Crazy gradient with it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 cmc looks like a great track. much narrower strip of the heaviest snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 0z GFS is rain for basically everyone I-95 on SE and even interior areas don't get much. The track is much further inland. If the Euro caves I think we're in trouble.Huh? GFS is widespread 16-20"+ SE PA to the Delaware River with hardly any mixing except right on I95 *maybe* verbatim. S and E drops off quickly. Otherwise epic run. Models moving towards euro. CMC came west and coming in line now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Total QPF line shows 2.5" cutting through central SEPA. The low is so close it's over south jersey yet 10 miles NW of I95 stays snow, outrageous wouldn't think that was possible. I think between the dynamics of the storm bombing and actually having a good airmass in place to start keeps the r/s line at bay while the thermal levels begin collapsing s and e toward the slp center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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