JTA66 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This reminds me of a storm from Dec 1995, mid month (can't recall the exact date). We were forecasted to get 12-16 or so, but it turned into a huge sleet fest instead. That winter was so epic, with the Jan '96 blizzard, no one remembers the let downs from that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just took the dogs out, and it was literally sleeting, then snowing, then raining. Though the rain might just be the snow and sleet being annihilated mid air and hitting me as plain water. And it is definitely heavy stuff. If you can, get out and shovel some now. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure your location but this is turning into a potential life threatening situation up here really quickly for all the wrong reasons. Epic sleet/ice storm unfolding. I am located in southern chester county in mushroom country. Not even close to blizzard criteria happening, it's still a mix here and has been since about 3:30am. There is little accretion happening, I don't know, should we experience some wind soon will have power issues. Snow accumulation 2 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5.0" in Ewing, 1.5" of that is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 So, I realize there were warm layers aloft, but usually high precip rates would drop the temps. Why were the deform bands for this storm more sleet? Or were what we were thinking were deform bands on radar simply higher echos because they were sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 From what I have heard, the more western track of the low pressure system vs. most of the modelling (save for perhaps the NAM) introduced more warm air at the mid-levels. Thus, the warmth (between 700 and 850) was more impressive than models indicated and led to the sleetfest in the Philly suburbs / Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The NAM had some warm solutions but everyone dismissed it as the NAM being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The NAM had some warm solutions but everyone dismissed it as the NAM being the NAM. The NAM still tends to amp in the mid-range but it has been performing well for suggesting final outcomes. Storm is starting to pull away from the south but will be interesting to see if any of those NW bands wrap around to hit here as the storm moves NE. My temp continues to slowly drop. Still some blowing snow with the SN-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 hours ago, shemATC said: So, I realize there were warm layers aloft, but usually high precip rates would drop the temps. Why were the deform bands for this storm more sleet? Or were what we were thinking were deform bands on radar simply higher echos because they were sleet? Once the warm air it here there is no getting rid of it... Damage is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The NAM still tends to amp in the mid-range but it has been performing well for suggesting final outcomes. Storm is starting to pull away from the south but will be interesting to see if any of those NW bands wrap around to hit here as the storm moves NE. My temp continues to slowly drop. Still some blowing snow with the SN-. The NAM has scored a couple of minor coup's this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Looks like we are done here with just some flurries. Currently 30F and breezy with some blowing snow & fog. Still standing @ 3.75" compacted sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 I was about to ask when this was done, radar looks like it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I mean even the para nam and 4k nam were majorly wrong. they sided mostly with the gfs and euro. 12k nam and rgem were the winners. yesterday's 12z rgem may have been the best run of what actually happened, though 18z 12k nam was accurate as well. I think in general if it comes down to short term models vs globals then the short term models should be given the edge even if the globals have been consistent. the short term models picked up on the possible mixing issues yesterday and they were ignored by everyone because gfs and euro had been remarkably consistent. I will at least give the short term models much more weight in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 In the few years I've been lurking here, always thought the short range NAM was pretty good no? It seemed to be the only model yesterday that showed all that sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I was about to ask when this was done, radar looks like it's done. it's done save for maybe a stray snow shower. this is ithe, unbelievable I know since the forecast was 18-24" last night but that's all she wrote on this ****storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Lady Di said: In the few years I've been lurking here, always thought the short range NAM was pretty good no? It seemed to be the only model yesterday that showed all that sleet. it tends to overdue warmth and qpf at times especially if it is warmer and wetter than every model. yesterday was not one of those times though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: it's done save for maybe a stray snow shower. this is ithe, unbelievable I know since the forecast was 18-24" last night but that's all she wrote on this ****storm. Wow, maybe climatology wise we are headed back to the '70/80's it seemed almost every storm we would get wound up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, Lady Di said: In the few years I've been lurking here, always thought the short range NAM was pretty good no? It seemed to be the only model yesterday that showed all that sleet. For me, was so intoxicated with 18+ inches and tossed it and disregarded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Starting here at this post JetsPens87 offers interesting info about warm air intrusion and levels about atmosphere. It might ease the pain/angst for us along I95 corridor once understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 OK how bad is the HRRR? Well the latest HRRR 15z is not finished running it's out 4 hours and has 5" additional snow falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: OK how bad is the HRRR? Well the latest HRRR 15z is not finished running it's out 4 hours and has 5" additional snow falling! It's been terrible for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: OK how bad is the HRRR? Well the latest HRRR 15z is not finished running it's out 4 hours and has 5" additional snow falling! Yeah, I'm taking the under. The radar does show a little back building with a snow band in the Balt/DC area ... waiting to see if that swings through a little later (probably not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Well, may have not lived up to some of the "potential" before hand. But I can't complain about what I got up here, we got a decent storm... ready for spring and eventually next season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 40 minutes ago, RedSky said: OK how bad is the HRRR? Well the latest HRRR 15z is not finished running it's out 4 hours and has 5" additional snow falling! I believe! put on your rally caps folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 NAM seems to really nail the larger impact storms. Nailed the blizzard last January, led the way with this storm....it gets little respect tho because it chokes on the basic forecasts more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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