shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Ralph, does this count as Lucy being Lucy, or is this even a bit sadistic for even her? I still think someone needs to go off the Comcast building anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Birds~69 said: 90% of the time the warm air goes further west than predicted...never fails. especially in March. can't believe none of the pros noticed this or even put a blurb of this being possible. it's like everyone hugged the gfs and euro, myself included[except im not a pro] and said **** it to this possibility despite philly never seeing a foot in March like ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I seem to remember 12 hours ago people telling me to relax and stop complaining, as well as to not be disappointed because that anything in March is a bonus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Ralph, no! NO! Think about your family! Just put it down and we'll talk this over. Oh I have too much to live for. Im not talking about me. Lucy is getting doused in gasoline, set on fire, then kicked off the Comcast building. She wants to pull the ball away? I'll show her how to make a proper kick! Good riddance Lucy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh I have too much to live for. Im not talking about me. Lucy is getting doused in gasoline, set on fire, then kicked off the Comcast building. She wants to pull the ball away? I'll show her how to make a proper kick! Good riddance Lucy! By the time you get there, it might be raining enough to douse her flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 can't believe blizzard warnings are still up. really really embarrassing actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 In all seriousness the sleet line just keep pushing N and W. It is going to be nearly impossible for it to crash back S and E in any meaningful way at this point. Local news is scratching their heads they look confused. For the first time 2 outlets have said "Mostly mixing in Southeast PA but the NWS says heavy snow into double digits is on the way still". The finger pointing has begun. It looks/sounds like they are waiting for the downgrade from the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Winter mosaic radar on most sites has snow well SE into South Jersey but that is nowhere near accurate at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Winter mosaic radar on most sites has snow well SE into South Jersey but that is nowhere near accurate at all. I was just going to say that. What criteria do those p-type radars use to determine what type to show? They are almost 40-50 miles off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Not to shake the hornet's nest, but didn't we always know that mixing was a possibility? Yes, but this has turned out to be 90% mixing for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, shemATC said: Yes, but this has turned out to be 90% mixing for most. yup zero mentioned by anyone saying that this much mixing was possible. the low worst case scenario was 8-12"... now looking like 8" will be a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 427 AM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017 VALID 12Z TUE MAR 14 2017 - 12Z FRI MAR 17 2017 ...NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES... 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NC... WHICH IS WELL WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE FROM 24 HRS AGO AND REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE 00Z CYCLE OF MODELS. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL TRACK OF THE STORM MEANS A TREMENDOUS ATLANTIC SURGE OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR AND MAJOR PTYPE VARITIES OVER THE MID-ATL REGION. THUS TREMENDOUS WIDESPREAD BRIGHT BANDING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR TRANSITIONING THE EVENT NEAR THE DELMARVA FROM A SNOW EVENT TO MORE OF A SLEET STORM WITH SNOW FARTHER INLAND AND NORTH AND WEST. THUS AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW DRIVES UP THE COAST... HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE REST OF I95 CORRIDOR FROM PHL TO BOS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SHIFTING TOWARDS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND A BRUSH FOR THE MAJOR MARKETS. THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE LOW TRACK AT THE MOMENT HAS MINIMAL SPREAD WITH A POSITION ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST AT 12Z TO SOUTHEAST MA BY 00Z/15. TAKING THE WPC QPF AND USING A 5 WAY BLEND FOR PTYPE OF THE NAM/NAM CONEST... ECMWF/EC MEAN AND GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE I95 CORRIDOR AND A WEALTH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. IN FACT... A FOOT TO TWO FEET AND LOCALLY MORE CAN BE ANTICIPATED FROM THE POCONOS OF NERN PA AND NRN NJ TO MAINE... WHICH INCLUDES ALY/BTV. AS EXPECTED... THE VERY FINE DETAILS WERE NOT DECIDED TO THE FINAL MINS OF THE EVENT... MEANING INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT THERMALS. ALSO ON TUES... MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WRN NY STATE... A SOLID AND PERSISTENT LAKE BAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD IMPACT NERN IL AND NWRN IN WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD YIELD FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. ON WED... EXPECT LINGERING DEFORMATION HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND MAINE WITH A POSSIBLE HEFTY LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: yup zero mentioned by anyone saying that this much mixing was possible. the low worst case scenario was 8-12"... now looking like 8" will be a miracle. Well I was going to post Mt. Holly's "Minimum" Map since we'll have only barely beaten that, but they have since taken it down. They still have up the 12-18 "most likely" map though. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, shemATC said: Well I was going to post Mt. Holly's "Minimum" Map since we'll have only barely beaten that, but they have since taken it down. They still have up the 12-18 "most likely" map though. LOL and still haven't taken down the blizzard warnings...seems like they are intent on looking as poorly as possible...their minimum map this morning was still like 8 or 9 inches. not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I seriously want what the HRRR is smoking. At least models like GFS and NAM tell us their maps "include sleet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Literally the changeover line is a mile or two to my south and not stopping. Is this for freakin real. Come on. And to make it worse, Mount Holly has no mention of sleet making it up this way. I don't think 18-24 is possible with mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, Newman said: Literally the changeover line is a mile or two to my south and not stopping. Is this for freakin real. Come on. And to make it worse, Mount Holly has no mention of sleet making it up this way. I don't think 18-24 is possible with mixing. don't worry, mount holly has been horrible mentioning the sleet possibility for everyone. I really cannot believe the blizzard warnings are still up. Looks like they are going to ride that forecast until it crashes, burns, and the fire put out by the incoming rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, PennQuakerGirl said: In terms of the commute, this pounding sleet is worse than snow, right? not really, sleet melts pretty quick on treated roads. almost all major roadways are just wet where if this was snow they'd all be snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 31 minutes ago, Newman said: Literally the changeover line is a mile or two to my south and not stopping. Is this for freakin real. Come on. And to make it worse, Mount Holly has no mention of sleet making it up this way. I don't think 18-24 is possible with mixing. I had feared this from Sunday night all through Monday. I even mentioned the possibility to my boss lol. (I said this was the most likely scenario for the forecast to bust.....of course dealing with 6~10" of snow with sleet in it is not fun) I think even near Allentown, if a low even TOUCHES the coast north of the NC border, you are going to get mixing. (unless it's Jan-Feb AND with brutally cold, deep air) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4.0" in Ewing, the top 1/2" is mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, famartin said: 4.0" in Ewing, the top 1/2" is mostly sleet. Ray what were the odds Ewing and Quakertown would be neck and neck with accumulations could you ever have believed that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Mt Holly needs to step to the plate and discuss the situation and scenerios...the 4:06 disco was quite pathetic. Where are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Mt Holly needs to step to the plate and discuss the situation and scenerios...the 4:06 disco was quite pathetic. Where are they? probably thinking of the best way to put in writing "well, we ****ed up. big time." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 How do you "sell" the next blizzard that comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Oh well, back to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: How do you "sell" the next blizzard that comes. you can't. this is going to set the publics faith in winter forecasting back years. no one is going to cancel anything until there's actual snow on the ground next time and I can't blame anyone since pro forecasters have yet to explain why their forecast is failing miserably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Lucy.....Stella is not cooperating!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 It is quite disheartening to read words like "life threatening" and you get nothing remotely close. Flash flooding maybe? We'll see. It's been an unbelievable bust of every storm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 It is quite disheartening to read words like "life threatening" and you get nothing remotely close. Flash flooding maybe? We'll see. It's been an unbelievable bust of every storm this winter. Not sure your location but this is turning into a potential life threatening situation up here really quickly for all the wrong reasons. Epic sleet/ice storm unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure your location but this is turning into a potential life threatening situation up here really quickly for all the wrong reasons. Epic sleet/ice storm unfolding. getting crushed in the far reaches of the Mt Holly zone. No bust in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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