Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 I think I'm gonna treat winter weather like its the WWE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 01Z HRRR lcoming in slightly colder with a less mixing in SEPA at this [point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 12k and 4k NAM both get mixing into my yard and enough to knock down snow amounts to the 12-15" range. It's good the storm isn't another 24 hours away it would have trended to an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 It is what it is. Let's enjoy whatever comes in everyone's backyard. Still winter an its a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 You guys crack me up. We all knew the mix line was going to teeter near I95. This was covered now for 48 hours. And why r you guys using the NAM which is clearly overamped as usual to forecast an event that is a nowcast? If you two were first time posters I could understand but neither of you are rookies. Hrrr is East with slp. Smell the rain to see the heaviest totals or whatever the saying is. Chill with the bust stuff until this is over please. If it turns into a total bust we can analyze post mortem but it wont. Complaining about it doesnt help anyone here. If you are that disappointed already perhaps its bed time ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12k and 4k NAM both get mixing into my yard and enough to knock down snow amounts to the 12-15" range. It's good the storm isn't another 24 hours away it would have trended to an apps runner. Just take it easy man. If you don't already follow CrankyWxGuy on Twitter, you should do so. He was just talking about the short range models moving back and forth in the next couple hours as the center of the actual storm begins to fully take shape. I really think you get more than 12-15", but I guess we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lothianjavert Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Light snow here, will probably mix, north eastern MD ( just below Oxford ) Whatever we get at this point is a bonus- I wasn't expecting any of this after the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 12k and 4k NAM both get mixing into my yard and enough to knock down snow amounts to the 12-15" range. It's good the storm isn't another 24 hours away it would have trended to an apps runner. Poor you, only 12-15" lol. Believe me, u might smell the mix line but it doesnt reach you imo. You are in a great great spot! You likely see higher totals than what u r suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 looking at the latest snow maps it is apparent that sleet is include as snow both with tidbits and wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You guys crack me up. We all knew the mix line was going to teeter near I95. This was covered now for 48 hours. And why r you guys using the NAM which is clearly overamped as usual to forecast an event that is a nowcast? If you two were first time posters I could understand but neither of you are rookies. Hrrr is East with slp. Smell the rain to see the heaviest totals or whatever the saying is. Chill with the bust stuff until this is over please. If it turns into a total bust we can analyze post mortem but it wont. Complaining about it doesnt help anyone here. If you are that disappointed already perhaps its bed time ;-) Not me....I am with you on the NAM stuff, Don't trust it one bit in this setup,m and I like that the HRRR is standing pat for now. Still sticking with my initial thoughts of 12-16 in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Brand new Mount Holly AFD at 10:05PM made no mention of mixing West of I95 in PA as far as I saw when I quickly skimmed it. It even says "Snow will be the predominant precipitation type across PA with this storm". Chill guys....they are pro forecasters for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Brand new Mount Holly AFD at 10:05PM made no mention of mixing West of I95 in PA as far as I saw when I quickly skimmed it. It even says "Snow will be the predominant precipitation type across PA with this storm". Chill guys....they are pro forecasters for a reason. people always bug out with the last minute swings. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Brand new Mount Holly AFD at 10:05PM made no mention of mixing West of I95 in PA as far as I saw when I quickly skimmed it. It even says "Snow will be the predominant precipitation type across PA with this storm. Sounds like Mt. Holly is all in! Loving my nook of N. Chesco /Eastern Berks ready for a jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 hrrr much better than the nam at least at this time range. check it on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I didn't see this posted yet. New (well kinda) MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 can someone please post the latest HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Poor you, only 12-15" lol. Believe me, u might smell the mix line but it doesnt reach you imo. You are in a great great spot! You likely see higher totals than what u r suggesting. No I am ok with IP and tons of graupel evreybody should be. It's mid March and snow melts FAST even on 32F day if it's sunny. Sleet provides durability to the pack lol My 4" sleet in 2007 gave me the longest lasting ground cover in March I ever seen and the sledding was unbeatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Not me....I am with you on the NAM stuff, Don't trust it one bit in this setup,m and I like that the HRRR is standing pat for now. Still sticking with my initial thoughts of 12-16 in my area. I cant see location on the app Im using. Where u at? And yes, the NAM could potentially be right but I've seen this before with some big bombing storms and the NAM ALWAYS overamplifies even during the event and is usually if not always the Westernmost outlier and warmest thermals in general. I would watch the hrrr for general slp location as well as radar sim trends. Thermal stuff is going to be wonky at this point with such a dynamic and bombing storm. Heck, I know it was before we had so much technology but Philly was forecast to be plain rain during March 93 up until nowcasting so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I cant see location on the app Im using. Where u at? And yes, the NAM could potentially be right but I've seen this before with some big bombing storms and the NAM ALWAYS overamplifies even during the event and is usually if not always the Westernmost outlier and warmest thermals in general. I would watch the hrrr for general slp location as well as radar sim trends. Thermal stuff is going to be wonky at this point with such a dynamic and bombing storm. Heck, I know it was before we had so mich technology but Philly was forecast to be plain rain during March 93 up u til nowcasting so yeah. Wrightstown, PA may be low end 12-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: can someone please post the latest HRRR? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017031400&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 What a frigging hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 much less sleet than they Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, MacChump said: What a frigging hobby It makes people nutty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Holy Heck peoples.... Mt. Holly throws out most likely snowfall of 18"-24" for most of the NW burbs (with a potential for up to 27" in berks county, read again 27") and at least 12" almost everywhere else barred the shore and you guys are arguing over the NAM!? Unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 One negative with the HRRR is it dropped QPF by .50", but that model changes every hour. That 16" NE tip of Bucks is with all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: It makes people nutty... I am doing much better since I started going to Weenies Anonymous, our first rule is "Thou shall not hug any one model". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Jesus, not sure whether to expect 5" or "15 in trenton . This sleet is the ultimate wild card... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Bluescat1 said: I am doing much better since I started going to Weenies Anonymous, our first rule is "Thou shall not hug any one model". Where can I sign up? Ill gladly take 14" in lower bucks county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: can someone please post the latest HRRR? Has trended to look awfully similar to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, AbsoluteVorticity said: Has trended to look awfully similar to the euro I asked about the GFS earlier, and it's maps say "including sleet". Do the HRRR maps include sleet as snow? They must to some extent because there are several hours of simulated radar that are mixing/rain yet the snow totals increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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