The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 54 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I think this is a great call. Would your 18-22" include the Royersford-Collegeville area? yeah you guys are in a great spot. not likely to mix but close enough to the low to get a ton of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, MacChump said: Oh yeah...watched this band just chill a few miles a way for what seemed like hours Can you guess how fast I checked the date on that? four hours under that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 I just saw temp profiles from a post over in the NYC forum and it bumps above 32 degrees after the peak of heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Can you guess how fast I checked the date on that? four hours under that brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, shemATC said: +/- 10 miles from the Delaware River is going to mean a whole lot for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The storm obviously hates South Jersey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 I know its the HRRR....but i had too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18z NAM for Hrs 16-20 is what scares me. Going to be looking at a whole lot of clear "snow" at this rate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 And the 18z 4k NAM is yuck for everyone pretty much those same hours all the way to Lancaster/Reading/Allentown. Though that might be more sleet than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 temps were running 3 or 4 degrees colder than forecasted highs today fwiw. I'm standing firm that no one west of the river will see any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, The Iceman said: temps were running 3 or 4 degrees colder than forecasted highs today fwiw. I'm standing firm that no one west of the river will see any rain. I hope you are right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, shemATC said: And the 18z 4k NAM is yuck for everyone pretty much those same hours all the way to Lancaster/Reading/Allentown. Though that might be more sleet than rain. Yeah just saw that...talk about a let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, shemATC said: I hope you are right.... That looks like a soaker. Temps today don't mean much since the warm air aloft from the atlantic is whats causing the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, shemATC said: And the 18z 4k NAM is yuck for everyone pretty much those same hours all the way to Lancaster/Reading/Allentown. Though that might be more sleet than rain. 850 temps are only above freezing for 1 perhaps 2 hours at most on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: 850 temps are only above freezing for 1 perhaps 2 hours at most on the NAM More like 3 hrs, but more importantly almost 1" of qpf falls during that time. Lot of accumulation wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, shemATC said: More like 3 hrs, but more importantly almost 1" of qpf falls during that time. Lot of accumulation wasted. LOL Its 1 hour in my backyard AND.....its the 18Z NAM....my God just stop already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: LOL Its 1 hour in my backyard AND.....its the 18Z NAM....my God just stop already So which mesoscale model should I not ignore since almost ALL of them show lower bucks and philly losing 3 hrs and 1" of qpf while above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 LOL Its 1 hour in my backyard AND.....its the 18Z NAM....my God just stop alreadyYeah i dont see that verifying out here Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 hmmmm 12z euro or 18z nam. hmm model what do I trust more... tough decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: hmmmm 12z euro or 18z nam. hmm model what do I trust more... tough decisions... NAM tends to run a little warm. How are the very short term models looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: hmmmm 12z euro or 18z nam. hmm model what do I trust more... tough decisions... Use the 3/4K resolution if you going with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: NAM tends to run a little warm. How are the very short term models looking? Only one that shows prolonged mixing really n/w is the 4k NAM (though the 3k is almost as bad). The RGEM, NMM, ARW all show about 3-6 hours of mix within 10-15 miles n/w of the river. Most coincide with a pretty strong jet coming straight in off the ocean, which is where the warm air is being drawn in. HRRR really is just hitting the range where this change would be occuring. The next 2 hours of runs for that will see where they fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, shemATC said: Only one that shows prolonged mixing really n/w is the 4k NAM (though the 3k is almost as bad). The RGEM, NMM, ARW all show about 3-6 hours of mix within 10-15 miles n/w of the river. Most coincide with a pretty strong jet coming straight in off the ocean, which is where the warm air is being drawn in. HRRR really is just hitting the range where this change would be occuring. The next 2 hours of runs for that will see where they fall. We'll have to watch for this the rest of the day. The 3k snow map looks good just north and west. Sometimes models have trouble setting up the mixing line in cases like these. Really hope it isn't a bust since blizzard warnings are out. Many people changed their schedules for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Whats one more map huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, shemATC said: So which mesoscale model should I not ignore since almost ALL of them show lower bucks and philly losing 3 hrs and 1" of qpf while above freezing? so you'll mix a little in Langhorne, big deal. It's March 13th and you are about to see around a foot of snow and blizzard conditions for a time! I'll tell ya, some people on here....sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 An Amazing storm developing. Currently it is affecting and building into the northern two thirds of Florida to most of the great lakes. Reminds me of the 1993 super storm...which happened at about the same time. We won't come close to the low pressure in that storm. But wow...Area covered is incredible. Here is a like to Sarcus' great ob thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 the warmest layer on the NAM at my house is 800 mb at 18 hrs. 0.8 degrees. 850 below freezing at -0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This storm is going to be very impressive throughout the area. Even the shore will have flooding, erosion, and very strong wind issues to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What do people think of the latest RGEM? Lots of heavy precip and I am thinking the red band NW could easily be snow with those bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 go Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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