Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Newman said: I was just asking because I remember seeing the snow map of 1993 and the rain/snow line seemed to set up right along I-95. And yes, that always sucks when you lose your best rates to rain/sleet. I hope you fare well down there. Mount Holly has said that there could be some areas that pick up an inch or more of sleet. I always expand those r/s lines due to the fact that there is nothing holding the warm air to a specific location Kinda like a spill on the floor, its gonna go where it wants to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 +/- 10 miles from the Delaware River is going to mean a whole lot for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, shemATC said: +/- 10 miles from the Delaware River is going to mean a whole lot for this storm. Were cooked. I wonder how much precip we lose to sleet/rain. The euro is colder, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I was just asking because I remember seeing the snow map of 1993 and the rain/snow line seemed to set up right along I-95. And yes, that always sucks when you lose your best rates to rain/sleet. I hope you fare well down there. Mount Holly has said that there could be some areas that pick up an inch or more of sleet.Out here i think we stay all snow maybe at the end of the storm as things wind down maybe we mix a little but we should be good out hereSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, Newman said: I was just asking because I remember seeing the snow map of 1993 and the rain/snow line seemed to set up right along I-95. And yes, that always sucks when you lose your best rates to rain/sleet. I hope you fare well down there. Mount Holly has said that there could be some areas that pick up an inch or more of sleet. '93 was a unique event in that the low ended up taking a very rare track almost up the spine of the Appalachians. It was quite far inland due to the nature of the triple-phase. I was young at the time (7) but I do remember we didn't get a ton of snow in Montgomery county. At least as I remember it, the storm was more notable for the intense wind conditions and not so much a blizzard locally, though I do remember the blizzards elsewhere in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Eurowx snow map very close to 0z but it did tick east 5-8 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I would go 8-14" Philly with the IP mix and they only get single digits if they get a huge amount of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Eurowx snow map very close to 0z but it did tick east 5-8 miles. I saw some map with temp gradients, verifying that it might be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think it will be interesting as well as significant in the effects of the storm if it is a dry blowing drifting snow or a heavy wet snow with tree and wire trouble - or (which I think is possible) - both as the storm evolves. Heavy and wet as the warm air from NJ approaches and then as the storm moves north we get into the colder air with dry and drifting. Depending on the amount of each the "damage" outcome changes. IF we get a significant amount of sleet then less effect - doesn't build up on trees and it doesn't drift much. I think we in the NW suburbs of Philly are in the zone as referenced above. Further north and west less wet snow type - further south and east less dry snow type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Violentweatherfan said: Is that the furthest the 0 line gets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 My expectations are set at 15-20" and will need exactly 17.5" to hit normal winter average lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, B Dawk 20 said: Is that the furthest the 0 line gets? It pivots from there pushing up a bit further in central Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Isn't this about the point where the globals become a bit irrelevant? Seeing a lot of people still living and dying by these fine details on the globals with the storm only 8-10 hours away. Nws leaning heavily on the short terms (warmer) models at this time. Very strong wording from them on this storm. Don't know if I ever saw an AFD from them with the word "hammered" involved lol. Anyway good luck to all. Hope the r/s line stays well southeast of I95. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Final call now that the 12z suite is in. Philadelphia- 10-14" Lower bucks/montgomery/western mercer/ western burlington 14-18" Central bucks/montgomery/chester co to lower Lehigh Valley 18-22" lollipops of 24" lehigh valley/poconos 16-20" Central jersey 10-14" South Jersey 6-10" Shore points 3-6" will be happy to bust too low but storm speed and possible mixing issues prevent a widespread 18 to 24 save for NW of the city. Anything over 8 inches in my backyard will make me a happy camper. would put above average snowfall wise on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Final call now that the 12z suite is in. Philadelphia- 10-14" Lower bucks/montgomery/western mercer/ western burlington 14-18" Central bucks/montgomery/chester co to lower Lehigh Valley 18-22" lollipops of 24" lehigh valley/poconos 16-20" Central jersey 10-14" South Jersey 6-10" Shore points 3-6" will be happy to bust too low but storm speed and possible mixing issues prevent a widespread 18 to 24 save for NW of the city. Anything over 8 inches in my backyard will make me a happy camper. would put above average snowfall wise on the year. I think this is a great call. Would your 18-22" include the Royersford-Collegeville area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is a big deal - 40-50mph wind gusts in SEPA to near 70 eastern Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Sup fellas, I am 10 minutes from sails up and joining the party, thinking Stroudsburg, hope to be in by midnight but that front end is going to come in like a boss to SE PA around 9. Open to some minor adjustments based on local climo which I know zero about NE PA, appreciate the commentary over the past several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I think this is a great call. Would your 18-22" include the Royersford-Collegeville area? I'd be thrilled with this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Sup fellas, I am 10 minutes from sails up and joining the party, thinking Stroudsburg, hope to be in by midnight but that front end is going to come in like a boss to SE PA around 9. Open to some minor adjustments based on local climo which I know zero about NE PA, appreciate the commentary over the past several days. 9:00 am right. I have no clue on timing other than start and finish time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Sup fellas, I am 10 minutes from sails up and joining the party, thinking Stroudsburg, hope to be in by midnight but that front end is going to come in like a boss to SE PA around 9. Open to some minor adjustments based on local climo which I know zero about NE PA, appreciate the commentary over the past several days. Welcome to the party, Stroudsburg would be a fine location to experience this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Isn't this about the point where the globals become a bit irrelevant? Seeing a lot of people still living and dying by these fine details on the globals with the storm only 8-10 hours away. Nws leaning heavily on the short terms (warmer) models at this time. Very strong wording from them on this storm. Don't know if I ever saw an AFD from them with the word "hammered" involved lol. Anyway good luck to all. Hope the r/s line stays well southeast of I95. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Yeah, I was just watching the euro to see placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: 9:00 am right. I have no clue on timing other than start and finish time I think he was referring to 9pm tonight. Stroudsburg might be a good place to aim to start, and then adjust north or east (into NJ) if the storm looks to take a different final track. I'm sure you could book a last minute room most places up there since it's midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: 9:00 am right. I have no clue on timing other than start and finish time I think I heard between 10 and Midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 just told my wife to go ahead to cancel her appointments tomorrow in chadds ford...if last second shifts brings rain and roads are clear in the morning there will be hell to pay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Well I digress we are under a Blizzard Warning way out here now huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, MacChump said: just told my wife to go ahead to cancel her appointments tomorrow in chadds ford...if last second shifts brings rain and roads are clear in the morning there will be hell to pay Tomorrow morning I doubt conditions will be good, snow/mix/rain or all of the above. The afternoon might be different if there is more mix/rain in the morning. I'd still bet it will be snow morning and minimally a slushy mess in the afternoon (otherwise all snow and definitely not drivable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Changed to Mt Pocono, close to 80 so I should have access getting out Wednesday, I can adjust a little once I get in to SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I can't remember the last time we had a major coastal with such a wide precip field. So many have had a sharp cutoff north and west. Really nice that so many will get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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