March 13-14 Storm

[Newman]

Just now, RedSky said:

GFS isn't showing winds at blizzard level in Berks need to be near I95

 

Yeah that's what I thought. Winds rarely perform well out this way. Hopefully being further NW can help with ratios and less mixing, if any.

[The Iceman]

13 minutes ago, Newman said:

You think the wind can perform out here?

doubtful. looking like closest to blizzard warnings going west would be phildelphia and lower bucks/montgomery and that's just based on the gfs. mesoscale models don't see the potential for blizzard warnings even that far. should still be fairly windy though, you may have a few gusts to blizzard conditions, just not sustained.

[hazwoper]

Updated Mt Holly WSW text

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1200 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as
a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on
Tuesday...

.A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those
who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning.
Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will
become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday
Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and
west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are
likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of
northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour
are expected.


NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-140400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-
Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
1200 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New
  Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches. Very high
  confidence!

* TIMING...Snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest
  to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times
  with snowfall rates of Three to four inches per hour for several
  hours Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish late in the day
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow combined with blowing and drifting will
  make many roads impassable.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...One half mile or less at times.

* TEMPERATURES...From the mid 20s to lower 30s.

[Violentweatherfan]

If there is a change over to rain, watch the rain line crawl all the way through upper bucks.  I've never experienced sleet/rain only in lower bucks and stay all snow in upper bucks.

Need the euro to nudge east another 20 miles 

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[Violentweatherfan]

2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Updated Mt Holly WSW text

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1200 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as
a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on
Tuesday...

.A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those
who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning.
Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will
become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday
Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and
west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are
likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of
northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour
are expected.


NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-140400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-
Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg,
Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
1200 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New
  Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches. Very high
  confidence!

* TIMING...Snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest
  to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times
  with snowfall rates of Three to four inches per hour for several
  hours Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish late in the day
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow combined with blowing and drifting will
  make many roads impassable.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...One half mile or less at times.

* TEMPERATURES...From the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Wow, i'm here watching  the weather channel and they are still on the rain snow line affecting dc,phl,nyc and boston

[hazwoper]

Canadian

[RedSky]

Not sure but think the Canadian popped a 25" lolipop over Wiggum's house.

[hazwoper]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Not sure but think the Canadian popped a 25" lolipop over Wiggum's house.

Looks like my house actually

[The Iceman]

10 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

If there is a change over to rain, watch the rain line crawl all the way through upper bucks.  I've never experienced sleet/rain only in lower bucks and stay all snow in upper bucks.

Need the euro to nudge east another 20 miles 

 

I'm very confident that lower bucks doesn't change over to rain. I think it's inevitable we get a period of sleet though and I would be very surprised if that doesn't happen, but GFS and GEM both keep us all snow. mesoscale models show a change over to sleet after 8-12 inches of snow. none show rain. will be all snow or snow and a period of sleet. I doubt upper bucks changes over to sleet now that the 12z models have come in unless the euro shows something drastically different and even then it would be all alone.

[Violentweatherfan]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

I'm very confident that lower bucks doesn't change over to rain. I think it's inevitable we get a period of sleet though and I would be very surprised if that doesn't happen, but GFS and GEM both keep us all snow. mesoscale models show a change over to sleet after 8-12 inches of snow. none show rain. will be all snow or snow and a period of sleet. I doubt upper bucks changes over to sleet now that the 12z models have come in unless the euro shows something drastically different and even then it would be all alone.

Your totals seem to be very conservative, the latest mt holly update seemed bullish. If I read it correctly 18-24(?) and it did include the entire county and area wide.

[The Iceman]

9 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Canadian

here's a little bit more in depth cmc snow map...very impressive

 

[penndotguy]

Amazing consensus among models, they show minor differences but  overall the same ideas 

[Violentweatherfan]

wow, gem in the nyc forum has some ridiculous qpf totals

[Violentweatherfan]

I read over in the MA forum and Roger Smith mentioned that the track of the storm potentally travels right over the gulf stream possibly igniting the LE/QPF amounts

[The Iceman]

5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Your totals seem to be very conservative, the latest mt holly update seemed bullish. If I read it correctly 18-24(?) and it did include the entire county and area wide.

as of the 12z suite.. none of the models have us getting 24 inches. only 2 give us over 18 inches. the CMC gives us the most at 18-22". GFS is 16-20". RGEM is 8-12". 4km NAM is 12-16". I'm throwing more conservative numbers because I think there's a good chance we change over to sleet which will prevent the 18 to 24" totals. 12-16" seems more likely though there is a chance it is 8 to 12 if we get a ton of sleet.

[Violentweatherfan]

Just now, The Iceman said:

as of the 12z suite.. none of the models have us getting 24 inches. only 2 give us over 18 inches. the CMC gives us the most at 18-22". GFS is 16-20". RGEM is 8-12". 4km NAM is 12-16".

got it, i haven't caught up since last night. went to bed after the euro disaster 3:00 am 

[wkd]

I can guarantee that the area on the gem in central NJ of >24" will not verify because it covers my house. My area has never ever been in the jackpot zone

[Violentweatherfan]

When does the euro start 2:00 PM right.

[RedSky]

UKMET is a nail biter and not good for the paranoid around I95 and extreme SEPA

 

[Violentweatherfan]

7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

UKMET is a nail biter and not good for the paranoid around I95 and extreme SEPA

 

I was just looking at the 850mb temp profile map, freezing line bumps up next to lower bucks county.

The actual air temp isn't just gonna stay confined within the area's stated on the map, they'll flood the entire county like a dank fart fills a room

UGH

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I was just looking at the 850mb temp profile map, freezing line bumps up next to lower bucks county.

The actual air temp isn't just gonna stay confined within the area's stated on the map, they'll flood the entire county like a dank fart fills a room

UGH

You knew after the opening 12z suite ticked east and brought nervana the other shoe would drop and bring more drama, it's like one of those totally planned fake reality shows lol

 

[RedSky]

UKMET 50-75mm QPF There is so much going to be a deathband setting up in Bucks Montco Chester not getting deprived this time.

 

[Violentweatherfan]

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

You new after the opening 12z suite ticked east and brought nervana the other shoe would drop and bring more drama, it's like one of those totally planned fake reality shows lol

 

It's impossible to not become emotionally invested in these storms, countless times I've told myself to be careful especially when we were in bulls eye so early. 

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

It's impossible to not become emotionally invested in these storms, countless times I've told myself to be careful especially when we were in bulls eye so early. 

I know its probably annoying asking you about my area, but do you think Berks/Lehigh counties switch to sleet at any moment in the storm? Yeah, it seems you never want to be in the bullseye way out because it won't end up like that, but I feel this storm hasn't necessarily wavered too much as some other storms we've had.

[hazwoper]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

I know its probably annoying asking you about my area, but do you think Berks/Lehigh counties switch to sleet at any moment in the storm? Yeah, it seems you never want to be in the bullseye way out because it won't end up like that, but I feel this storm hasn't necessarily wavered too much as some other storms we've had.

no

From Mt Holly latest discussion:

Everyone northwest of I-95 (e PA and nw NJ especially RDG to
Lehigh valley to Somerville north) should be thinking about
sheltering in place from around 2 AM to 2 PM...in other words no
unnecessary travel. Follow the advice of local officials. If
you must travel, it is recommended that you have a safety packet
with you, including warm clothing, bottled water and a fully
charged cell phone.

[Violentweatherfan]

3 minutes ago, Newman said:

I know its probably annoying asking you about my area, but do you think Berks/Lehigh counties switch to sleet at any moment in the storm? Yeah, it seems you never want to be in the bullseye way out because it won't end up like that, but I feel this storm hasn't necessarily wavered too much as some other storms we've had.

Yes, maybe I didn't realize you where that far west. I do believe the warm air will travel further than expected. I don't believe for a minute that there will be such a sharp cut off with who gets all snow or mix.  The LP is west again and with its intensity it'll draw in warm air from the ocean. That air will not stay withing the areas marked on the map, they flood the area for sure 

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Yes, I don't believe for a minute that there will be such a sharp cut off with who gets all snow or mix.  The LP is west again and with its intensity it'll draw in warm air from the ocean. That air will not stay withing the areas marked on the map, they flood the area for sure 

Mount Holly has stated in the AFD that they are leaning towards warmer models, hence bringing sleet into the mix. But, they only mention sleet creeping up to Wilmington, Philadelphia, New Brunswick and not really making it too far NW. However, I agree with you that more often than not, a strong storm like this will introduce a warm layer above the surface, bringing sleet further NW than modeled. I hope not for both of us, but we'll see. You lived through 1993's storm, did sleet mix in and how much?

[Violentweatherfan]

Just now, Newman said:

Mount Holly has stated in the AFD that they are leaning towards warmer models, hence bringing sleet into the mix. But, they only mention sleet creeping up to Wilmington, Philadelphia, New Brunswick and not really making it too far NW. However, I agree with you that more often than not, a strong storm like this will introduce a warm layer above the surface, bringing sleet further NW than modeled. I hope not for both of us, but we'll see. You lived through 1993's storm, did sleet mix in and how much?

It flipped to all rain for a good period and then went back to snow.  I don't recall any sleet for some reason, that was a triple phase storm and much more intense than this will be.  The low tracked right over ACY and was actually closer to the coast than this will be. 

I'm fearful that we (I-95) and east will lose all intense precip to rain or sleet.

[JCT777]

I don't see sleet being a major factor in the outer Philly suburbs / Lehigh Valley.  There have been big storms in which my area has mixed with and even briefly changed to sleet, and I still picked up more than 15 inches of snow (President's Day Storm in 2003 and Feb 9-10 storm in 2010...just to name a couple).

[Newman]

Just now, Violentweatherfan said:

It flipped to all rain for a good period and then went back to snow.  I don't recall any sleet for some reason, that was a triple phase storm and much more intense than this will be.  The low tracked right over ACY and was actually closer to the coast than this will be. 

I'm fearful that we (I-95) and east will lose all intense precip to rain or sleet.

I was just asking because I remember seeing the snow map of 1993 and the rain/snow line seemed to set up right along I-95. And yes, that always sucks when you lose your best rates to rain/sleet. I hope you fare well down there. Mount Holly has said that there could be some areas that pick up an inch or more of sleet.