Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 See you guys tonight. Hold it down in here today....no radar hallucinations yet please ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Awwww, look at the little storm in it's infancy stages in the Gulf and off the SE Coast. So innocent and sweet :-) Did you get much sleep last night. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Im all in on this one, I finally caved last night. With all big storms That I can remember Im 51 now back when I lived in Hamilton Twp. Nj right next to I95 they all had some sort of mixing issues I grew up hearing the I95 corridor phrase and dreaded it but we would always do fairly well even with the mixing and or changeover. Now I've been out here in Western Berks since 1995 and been on the other side of that where we generally don't changeover however on the flip side now Im usually on the gradient side of things right on the boarder of heavy and light accumulations and believe me the last 8 years or so its been the lighter side of things. I guess what Im trying to say lets be all take a breath and not start beating up on one another it looks to be a dynamic storm and they way it sounds its a storm like we have never seen before as far complex setup so lets just enjoy it Guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Latest Wxsim increases totals for NW Chesco to 17" to 24"....I will be reporting on the storm via my webcams, weather station and my wife taking measurements from down here in Florida with the Phillies for spring training. I will be back on Thursday...imagine there may still be some on the ground by then....heck my backyard still has snow from last week. Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 29. Wind east around 5 mph in the evening, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 29. Wind chill around 16. Wind northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill as low as 16. Wind northwest around 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, Plokoon111 said: So being in Croydon PA with 95 in my back yard the mixing is going to screw me right? wouldn't say totally screw you. the heaviest of the precip should all fall as snow but we will probably change to sleet for a period imo.. it's not going to take us down to 2 to 4" but I wouldn't be expecting 18-24" like what our warning calls for. lower bucks will be more like 8-12" maybe 6-10" worst case scenario, 10-14" best case scenario. that's my call for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: Did you get much sleep last night. LOL Off and on. Work going to be rough today. Hoping to nap a couple hours tonight before that wall moves in. We'll see about that. Adrenaline and caffeine tomorrow......got my 4-pack of Monster drinks and 2 pounds of coffee. My heart might explode out of my chest but I will be awake when it happens at least ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yet another winter saved by a massive snowstorm. Getting to be old hat around these parts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 So last night the euro came west and we lost about 10" of snow, I just woke up any changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: So last night the euro came west and we lost about 10" of snow, I just woke up any changes? Euro on some sites had a programming error or something they said irt to snowfall output thus partly the reason I am not a fan of snowfall maps per se. Still held steady and actually increased LE a bit. Shows widespread 20-24" SE PA with more N and W into NE PA jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro on some sites had a programming error or something they said irt to snowfall output thus partly the reason I am not a fan of snowfall maps per se. Still held steady and actually increased LE a bit. Shows widespread 20-24" SE PA with more N and W into NE PA jackpot zone. Wow, so we dodged a bullet phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12 Z Nam has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Final post before departing (I promise).....cloud canopy has been thickening here since about 730AM. Unsure if it breaks later or just continues to cloud over but we take what we can to help this time of year to keep out that warming sun. Had clear skies and excellent radiational cooling last night with temps generally 3-5 degrees colder than mos data had us this morning. The 2-3" remaining snowpack from Friday certainly didnt hurt which that in and of itself for mid-March is amazing. Goes to show what kind of airmass we are working with here. Bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z NAM is 50 or so miles east, so much better for city and close-in west suburbs. Pretty much a meso and synoptic consensus at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 threats at 138 and 216 on the gfs 6z too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: threats at 138 and 216 on the gfs 6z too.... 138 looks pretty similar to Fridays event. Then the 216 threat is a classic overrunning look that'd be a thump to ending as light rain. Both look like pretty decent set ups especially for mid late march. that would be something if both verified and we had more snow events in march than DJF combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: 138 looks pretty similar to Fridays event. Then the 216 threat is a classic overrunning look that'd be a thump to ending as light rain. Both look like pretty decent set ups especially for mid late march. that would be something if both verified and we had more snow events in march than DJF combined. The free euro looks close too. 138 isnt that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12km Para Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 km NAM shows 16-20" on the snow maps region wide. however, there definitely gets a warm layer into extreme se pa though so totals may be a bit inflated there and not account for the sleet. still at least a foot shown. 4km NAM is similar but also shows a warm layer giving a period of sleet. good news is away from the shore, rain looks off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4km NAM 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nothing beats waking up to that para NAM map above ^ except maybe napalm in the morning 11F for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 precip moves in between 04z-05z on the 3km NAM but moves in between 02z-03z on the 4km NAM. pretty interesting discrepancy this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is west and warm. Extreme SE PA gets a significant amount of sleet. 16-20 north of the fall line. 8-12 where it changes to sleet. precip moves in between 02-03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM has .50-1" accumulated freezing rain in interior Jersey south of Philly with the wind that's total disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 hoping berks and north chesco can squeak a blizzard warning out of this. its been a while since that happened last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is going to be as dynamic as superstorm 93 but with higher snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, The Iceman said: RGEM is west and warm. Extreme SE PA gets a significant amount of sleet. 16-20 north of the fall line. 8-12 where it changes to sleet. precip moves in between 02-03z. I'll take my 14-16" and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: This is going to be as dynamic as superstorm 93 but with higher snow totals You think the wind can perform out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: hoping berks and north chesco can squeak a blizzard warning out of this. its been a while since that happened last. Thats hard to do this far west, but you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS looks good for just about everyone. not nearly as warm as NAM and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Newman said: You think the wind can perform out here? GFS isn't showing winds at blizzard level in Berks need to be near I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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