Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Panic has even ensued now in the NYC forum. Hollywood needs the rights to make this a movie. In the end we all know DCA-NYC lose at the last second and New England wins late in the game. At least thats how the script probably reads. Wow, kinda like the Patriots. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow_ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 32 inches in the valley with the blizzard last year, what are the odds we almost get that again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Philly gets 12"+ on the conservative Eurowx map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Philly gets 12"+ on the conservative Eurowx map Yeah, wxbell euro snow map completely different than SV euro output. Thats where I got the 4" total from above. I wonder if wxbell doesnt account for sleet? And maybe SV is showing lots of pingers? Definitely a sneaky warm layer in there on the Euro that even makes it to NW Bucks Co . We toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah, wxbell euro snow map completely different than SV euro output. Thats where I got the 4" total from above. I wonder if wxbell doesnt account for sleet? And maybe SV is showing lots of pingers? Definitely a sneaky warm layer in there on the Euro that even makes it to NW Bucks Co . We toss? We toss and wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I don't know why everyone's freaking out. The Euro shows between 12" and 18" depending on the map you look at for PHL. The 0 line at 850 stays SE of PHL. Worry if you're near the shore but every model I've seen at 0z seems to give the PHL area at least 12" with more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We toss and wait Agreed. Gefs have me a little uneasy but not horrible. Besides ens probably not as useful now anyway. Ok, deep breaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On a plus note....the old saying you gotta smell the rain to hit the jackpot or however it goes is true. Just NW of that line will get crushed hard so teetering that line nearby isnt terrible I suppose. I'll take my chances, double down, and let it ride for a chance to jackpot. Especially with this type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Well, while we are here.....Happy 24th Anniversary to Superstorm '93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Totally content with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Winter Storm Warning bumped up to 18-24". Just wow. Give me 14-15" and I'd still be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Headed to airport now to go down to Florida for work. Best of luck with this historic event folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I am thinking SEPA gets 2-4 inches then a ton of sleet. At this point my goal is just that we don’t change to rain. I know mixing will most definitely happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 we are definitely mixing with the trend west. not really a question at this point. I don't think anyone west of the river goes to rain though. sleet makes it to upper Bucks though imo and will cut down on overall totals. my bust for this event is anything under 6 inches which would take a lot of sleet to do but I really don't see the temp getting above 32 in the height of the storm for non coastal areas. I'm thinking 6 to 10 should be safe for extreme se pa. lollipops of a foot. I don't think it's if we changeover but when, should still be all snow through the heaviest bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: we are definitely mixing with the trend west. not really a question at this point. I don't think anyone west of the river goes to rain though. sleet makes it to upper Bucks though imo and will cut down on overall totals. my bust for this event is anything under 6 inches which would take a lot of sleet to do but I really don't see the temp getting above 32 in the height of the storm for non coastal areas. I'm thinking 6 to 10 should be safe for extreme se pa. lollipops of a foot. I don't think it's if we changeover but when, should still be all snow through the heaviest bands. 6 to 10 even with all the sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: I am thinking SEPA gets 2-4 inches then a ton of sleet. At this point my goal is just that we don’t change to rain. I know mixing will most definitely happen. That would certainly be disappointing and likely a worst case scenario but yeah, if the center rides the western edge of guidance it's a nice thump (hopefully more than 2-4") with mix at the height followed by dry slot/snow showers. Cross your fingers for a nudge east at 12z and a heavy WAA thump overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 just saw our wsw was upped to 18 to 24 overnight too LOL nws better change that asap or they are going to majorly bust here. won't even be close. 14 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: 6 to 10 even with all the sleet? heaviest precip should still be mostly snow. think we all get at least that until we go to taint. my Weather underground forecast sounds perfect to me. 5 to 8 inches tonight then 1 to 3 inches tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 just saw our wsw was upped to 18 to 24 overnight too LOL nws better change that asap or they are going to majorly bust here. won't even be close. heaviest precip should still be mostly snow. think we all get at least that until we go to taint. my Weather underground forecast sounds perfect to me. 5 to 8 inches tonight then 1 to 3 inches tomorrow.I think mixing too but not that far NW as you suggest. We are all entitled to our opinions and our own calls but to start pumping your chest and declaring victory while calling the pros forecast major busts before the storm has even formed yet is ridiculous and part of the reason those guys at the nws hardly post here any more. You did the same thing earlier this season and were way off with your call. You didnt learn your lesson? I can hold you to 6-10" in Upper Bucks then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I gotta be honest, this place is too much on me. Its constant gloom and doom. 2"-4"...come on. We're 18 hours out and all things are looking like a gift from the weather gods. Ill see you guys during the observation thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hey guys, anyone live in the far NW/NNW Burbs and wouldn't mind having a guest stay 2 days? I'd offer $/food. let me know asap, I really want to road trip to the 20" totals. This is going to be a memorable event with the rates don't want to miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM likely a victim of its own hi resolution (same with rgem?) in terms of track and exact slp location. Overamplifying the big storm and causing a slp track left of the global models. If anything, latest guidance has upped qpf for our region to 1.25-2.0" LE on avg. The big boys (GFS/Euro/GGEM somewhat) have remained VERY consistent irt track of slp over past 3 runs or so whereas the higher res stuff seems to be bouncing around quite a bit still. Im more inclined to side with a blend of the GFS/Euro/GGEM which track right of the higher resolution data. With that said, even the RGEM and 4k/3k NAMs are showing better thermal ideas which is precisely the tools we should be using this data for. The heavier qpf they are modeling mixes down during the heaviest rates and flips questionable areas over dynamically to heavy snow because the rates are so extreme. Those questionable areas on the higher res stuff just happens to be NW of the globals again due to the hi res data being victim of its own resolution. The NAM and RGEM just as an example should probably look about 30 or so miles SE with slp center more in line with other guidance which would put the mix line closer to the Delaware River which historically and climatologically makes much more sense based on past experience and history with these types of systems. This isnt to say the GFS or Euro should be hugged like there is no tomorrow but my point is they seem to have a better handle on the track and havent bounced around that much aside from some minor wobbles run to run. So the GFS totals of 14-20" and the Euro totals of 18-28" arent that far fetched imo and this supports what the NWS is depicting. Not speaking for them but I would venture to guess our thoughts are somewhat similar. Im concerned my 7-14" call for Central Bucks will be too conservative in the end but Im riding it. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey guys, anyone live in the far NW/NNW Burbs and wouldn't mind having a guest stay 2 days? I'd offer $/food. let me know asap, I really want to road trip to the 20" totals. This is going to be a memorable event with the rates don't want to miss it. Get a hotel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think mixing too but not that far NW as you suggest. We are all entitled to our opinions and our own calls but to start pumping your chest and declaring victory while calling the pros forecast major busts before the storm has even formed yet is ridiculous and part of the reason those guys at the nws hardly post here any more. You did the same thing earlier this season and were way off with your call. You didnt learn your lesson? I can hold you to 6-10" in Upper Bucks then? no I didn't ralph. I said we'd get less than an inch back in December, and that it'd change over way earlier than expected and what do you know, it was well less than an inch and it changed over well earlier than expected so don't know what you're talking about man. it's very clear based on guidance than 18 to 24 is out to lunch here. 18 will be the absolute max lollipop in probably far upper bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 not to mention climatologically almost every big storm in extreme se pa has a period of sleet. pd 2 was like 20 degrees the entire storm and still had a period of sleet plus it's March. climo favors a changeover in extreme se pa much much more than an all snow solution which will prevent 18 to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 not to mention climatologically almost every big storm in extreme se pa has a period of sleet. pd 2 was like 20 degrees the entire storm and still had a period of sleet plus it's March. climo favors a changeover in extreme se pa much much more than an all snow solution which will prevent 18 to 24. I guess but the geographically favored areas are in line for a walloping with 18-24" not far fetched at all. Those areas are NW of I95 to 10 miles yes, but not mixing into Upper Bucks as you stated. That isnt the traditional line in these setups. Those areas traditionally remain all snow in these situations. PD2 is a bad example.....totally different situation and not your classic storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Furthermore, if this were falling between 11am-3pm I would agree. But this is a mid January type airmass with bulk of heaviest falling 3am-10am give or take. Not that it really has much to do with what is falling from the clouds but it certainly helps with dynamic cooling and mixing down. Heights are plenty low, again mid January like stuff sub 534 material. Im not sure this is our typical situation. Quite an anomaly if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 So being in Croydon PA with 95 in my back yard the mixing is going to screw me right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's the experimental HRRR but gets the precip in SE PA by 3Z Tuesday and it comes in like a wall (time-sensitive link). It is in line timing-wise with some of the heavier QPF modeled outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks to be a wild finish to my first winter here in PA. Down to 9 on my back deck here in Saylorsburg. Good luck to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Awwww, look at the little storm in it's infancy stages in the Gulf and off the SE Coast. So innocent and sweet :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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