anthonyweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 BIG DOG and EPIC come to mind 987 over the Delmarva tracks close off the Jersey coast. Best run yet of the ECM. Its actually a 976mb...0z was 986Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Courtesy of the NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Plenty of qpf, all comes down to the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 WS Warning up for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8-18" Playing it safe with that broad range haha. Here is the latest "most likely" snowfall map from Mt Holly. 8-12" along I95 and 12-18" in the burbs most likely snowfall.jpg-large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 pretty early for the wsw but that gives the public plenty of time to prepare. we usually don't see warnings this far out so I think thats the reason for the wide range. they know it will be warning criteria but they are not positive on how much above warning it will be. I expect tomorrow they will update the warning and narrow it to 8-12, 10 -14 or 14-18, ect.. the warning this far out shows the confidence in the storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 NBC 10 totals for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 41 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Courtesy of the NE forum. with the dynamics and air mass in place I don't think temps will be an issue save for the coast and maybe 20 miles inland at most. if there is a changeover I'm completely expecting it to be sleet. that actually won't surprise me. a changeover to rain away from the coastal areas would be surprising to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: NBC 10 totals for now.. Love that narrow strip 4-12"+ range..that'll cover them so they can parade around saying "we got it right and that's why we're THE most accurate weather station" Hoping the new weather girl brings back some quality to NBC10...when does she start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12 km parallel nam. guess there is always them possibility of a dry slot. This was an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That NBC snow map is rediculous. 4-12+. Are you kidding me. They are basically saying it will be somewhere between a nuisance and a full-blown blizzard. Honestly just put a big thing on the map it says we're not sure yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, wkd said: 12 km parallel nam. guess there is always them possibility of a dry slot. This was an outlier. Is there a "dislike" button on this site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, susqushawn said: Is there a "dislike" button on this site? I already don't like it, it's from wxbell lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: Love that narrow strip 4-12"+ range..that'll cover them so they can parade around saying "we got it right and that's why we're THE most accurate weather station" Hoping the new weather girl brings back some quality to NBC10...when does she start? The whole "THE most accurate weather station" bit is annoying. The new Met girl should have started by now. http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Tammie-Souza-NBC10-Meteorologist-Weather-Forecast--414933813.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: I just went there ha! You must be on the Premium subscription plan. Edit: They are all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: The whole "THE most accurate weather station" bit is annoying. The new Met girl should have started by now. http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Tammie-Souza-NBC10-Meteorologist-Weather-Forecast--414933813.html They are competing with social media for sure, in the future I see them dropping weather altogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: Think that meets the definition of "bullish". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: pretty early for the wsw but that gives the public plenty of time to prepare. we usually don't see warnings this far out so I think thats the reason for the wide range. they know it will be warning criteria but they are not positive on how much above warning it will be. I expect tomorrow they will update the warning and narrow it to 8-12, 10 -14 or 14-18, ect.. the warning this far out shows the confidence in the storm though. Early? The storm starts tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: NBC 10 totals for now.. Rather interesting ranges there! I am not a fan of overlapping ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 One last day enjoying the sun in the bark park before the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The GFS appears to be better for our area, but still a strange lack of precip on the northern and western part of the storm. NYC forum thinks it is the GFS's lower resolution causing it problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18z gfs has a classic track for big snow in the philly area. Energy transfers to the coast faster, the southern vort is much slower and deeper (rather drastic shift over 100 miles in the past 12 hours) and the 700/850/925 lows traverse SE of our area save the coast. Upper levels indicate solid potential, the qpf doesn't reflect the full potential imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, susqushawn said: 18z gfs has a classic track for big snow in the philly area. Energy transfers to the coast faster, the southern vort is much slower and deeper (rather drastic shift over 100 miles in the past 12 hours) and the 700/850/925 lows traverse SE of our area save the coast. Upper levels indicate solid potential, the qpf doesn't reflect the full potential imo. Seems the mets that have given an opinion on this would agree. Gfs vs all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wxsim sticking with a solid 8" to 12" event for the soaring hills of Western Chester County based on the 18z NAM and 12z GFS....more updates to follow - thanks for all the messages for updates!! Monday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Snow likely after midnight. Low 26. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 33. Wind southeast around 4 mph in the evening, becoming east-northeast around 9 mph, gusting to 18 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 29. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 20. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming north-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill as low as 17. Wind north around 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 hours ago, MGorse said: Rather interesting ranges there! I am not a fan of overlapping ranges. Really just a bad map. I like the range for the coast. It could be all rain or half a foot. And the 4-12+? So 4 inches to infinity. Got it. Not much trust in their own forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 From Bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BBasile said: Really just a bad map. I like the range for the coast. It could be all rain or half a foot. And the 4-12+? So 4 inches to infinity. Got it. Not much trust in their own forecasting. Maybe they'er trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Maybe they'er trolling lol. Gotta do something for ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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