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March 13-14 Storm


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pretty early for the wsw but that gives the public plenty of time to prepare. we usually don't see warnings this far out so I think thats the reason for the wide range. they know it will be warning criteria but they are not positive on how much above warning it will be. I expect tomorrow they will update the warning and narrow it to 8-12, 10 -14 or 14-18, ect.. the warning this far out shows the confidence in the storm though.

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41 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Courtesy of the NE forum.

ecmwf_tprecip_neng_20.png.daa32c27d94d632d5ce69ed64b86c463.png

with the dynamics and air mass in place I don't think temps will be an issue save for the coast and maybe 20 miles inland at most. if there is a changeover I'm completely expecting it to be sleet. that actually won't surprise me. a changeover to rain away from the coastal areas would be surprising to me at this point.

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6 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Love that narrow strip 4-12"+ range..that'll cover them so they can parade around saying "we got it right and that's why we're THE most accurate weather station

Hoping the new weather girl brings back some quality to NBC10...when does she start?

The  whole "THE most accurate weather station" bit is annoying.

The new Met girl should have started by now.

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Tammie-Souza-NBC10-Meteorologist-Weather-Forecast--414933813.html

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1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

The  whole "THE most accurate weather station" bit is annoying.

The new Met girl should have started by now.

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Tammie-Souza-NBC10-Meteorologist-Weather-Forecast--414933813.html

They are competing with social media for sure, in the future I see them dropping weather altogether 

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

pretty early for the wsw but that gives the public plenty of time to prepare. we usually don't see warnings this far out so I think thats the reason for the wide range. they know it will be warning criteria but they are not positive on how much above warning it will be. I expect tomorrow they will update the warning and narrow it to 8-12, 10 -14 or 14-18, ect.. the warning this far out shows the confidence in the storm though.

Early? The storm starts tomorrow night. 

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18z gfs has a classic track for big snow in the philly area.  Energy transfers to the coast faster, the southern vort is much slower and deeper (rather drastic shift over 100 miles in the past 12 hours) and the 700/850/925 lows traverse SE of our area save the coast.  Upper levels indicate solid potential, the qpf doesn't reflect the full potential imo.  

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17 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

18z gfs has a classic track for big snow in the philly area.  Energy transfers to the coast faster, the southern vort is much slower and deeper (rather drastic shift over 100 miles in the past 12 hours) and the 700/850/925 lows traverse SE of our area save the coast.  Upper levels indicate solid potential, the qpf doesn't reflect the full potential imo.  

Seems the mets that have given an opinion on this would agree. Gfs vs all other models.

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Wxsim sticking with a solid 8" to 12" event for the soaring hills of Western Chester County based on the 18z NAM and 12z GFS....more updates to follow - thanks for all the messages for updates!!

Monday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after
 midnight. Snow likely after midnight. Low 26. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 33.
 Wind southeast around 4 mph in the evening, becoming east-northeast around 9
 mph, gusting to 18 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow
 accumulation 2 to 3 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. Snow likely in the
 morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 29. Wind chill ranging
 from 15 to 20. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the
 morning, becoming north-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the
 afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the
 evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill as low
 as 17. Wind north around 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 50
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch.
 Snow accumulation about half an inch.

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2 hours ago, MGorse said:

Rather interesting ranges there! I am not a fan of overlapping ranges. 

Really just a bad map.   I like the range for the coast.  It could be all rain or half a foot.  And the 4-12+?  So 4 inches to infinity.  Got it.  Not much trust in their own forecasting.    

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