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March 13-14 Storm


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UKMET is a repeat of the big bad January 2016 blizzard, who wants to save another miserable winter?

Philly forum timeline

JAN 2016 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^March 2017

 Blizzard    meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh     Blizzard

 

 

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I want to say I should expect at least a foot based on all the NAMs, RGEM, CMC, UKMET, and the ECM is coming up. However, if the GFS comes out right I still won't be that depressed. 7-9 inches in mid March isn't bad. If only we had a stronger block and this could stall or loop. 

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not liking the dry slot showing up on some of the models. 5 miles away sees 20+ while I'd be at 12". I mean I'd take it don't get me wrong id still happily take a foot but it will be frustrating seeing the heaviest totals be that close. I just want 7 inches though and get to normal on the year which I didn't think was possible after mid February. I'm waiting until tn but I'm very close to being all in as well.

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gfs is pretty much all alone and is an outlier. the fools in ma are posting with their white goggles because it gives them the most snow. i wouldn't listen to their nonsense saying that it's right when it clearly is an outlier. I hope they base their expectations on it because it will be that much better reading their meltdowns when it's wrong. snow is some really serious business to some down there.

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10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

not liking the dry slot showing up on some of the models. 5 miles away sees 20+ while I'd be at 12". I mean I'd take it don't get me wrong id still happily take a foot but it will be frustrating seeing the heaviest totals be that close. I just want 7 inches though and get to normal on the year which I didn't think was possible after mid February. I'm waiting until tn but I'm very close to being all in as well.

Yeah Mt Holly did mention that this morning

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Euro definitely a bit west, though a monster snow run for most.  More temp issues in southern NJ.  As of now west of the Delaware River could be 16"+.  Though the gradient is VERY steep as you move east.  Where it lands now I'm as close to 21" as I am to 3-4" (if even that).

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Welp ... 

I was going to wait until 12z yesterday before emotionally committing, but then I saw the Euro and got cold feet, so I gave it another 24hrs. I'm all in now. Why not? It's been a ratter of a winter, it's mid March and this storm is Miller B-ish ... what could go wrong?

Anyway, the one interesting thing I keep seeing (and I have to give credit to Tony/Rainshadow for also pointing this out), regardless of the model or it's actual qpf output, they seem to consistently show a precip max just to the west/north west of Philly. Whether it plays out like that or not, who knows? Just another little something to keep an eye on.

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