stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 So at this point, do we want more northern stream interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: So at this point, do we want more northern stream interaction? not till later. Earlier = tucked in, warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Can someone post the panasonic wind maps? Thanks 102h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 102h That's MPH, gusts, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Sun angle at 2am? Really? I just meant as an average for the whole storm 10:1 is probably the best we can do, expecting some of the snow to be falling during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ltrain said: V-day 2007, was that storm icy? My mind is blank on that one. In my area is was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. And it froze solid into a glacier that lasted weeks. Analogs like CIPS should be used as guidance in regards to the evolution of storms and not just the verbatim output. Vday 2007 was close to a really big snow event. It was still really cool on its own merits. It was hours of sandblasting that piled up. Very rare stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like the NAM is about to go nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Sun angle at 2am? Really? Thank you. At 60 18z NAM Lp placement similar to 12zGFS fwiw Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The look on the 18z NAM-66hr points to southern stream dominance to start. Vigorous at 500...points to Gulf low development. It is the NAM but it's in line with the more favorable solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So at this point, do we want more northern stream interaction? Who the heck knows anymore. This has evolved so much in the last couple of days it's hard to pin down. I like where we stand now though with a stronger shortwave with even the possibility of it closing off the 500's within it that the Euro op shows. My biggest concern involving phases at this point is to see the initial phase in the deep south between the mid latitude and sub tropical streams. If we miss that we are probably sol. Think that is high probability at this point though. But this winter you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 72 hr h5 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 The number of bad results on the EPS went down again from 18 to 16. Not big but still down. We want to see those bad outliers continue to drop off each run until by Saturday night hopefully there are only a few stragglers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 why would you use the NAM for anything over 48 hours, its a great short range model, but past 48 hours almost useless.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 lol..NAM has the low in Central NC looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nam over amped at 84??? Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Warm Nose said: LOL at "sun angle" already I didn't mean to start a riot, I'm just pointing out that I don't think we'll do better than 10:1 here, at least around DC. Whatever does fall during the day will be subject to stronger sun and won't accumulate as efficiently. If it's all done or if the vast majority is over by daybreak then it's a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, ryanconway63 said: why would you use the NAM for anything over 48 hours, its a great short range model, but past 48 hours almost useless.... I don't think anybody is using it for much but comparison and confirmation. Anybody here using the NAM for specifics at 84 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Nam over amped at 84??? Shocking. No matter how much you say it, we're about to be deluged with pearl clutching about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Negative tilt on the southern s/w right? 18z NAM at 84 btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: I didn't mean to start a riot, I'm just pointing out that I don't think we'll do better than 10:1 here, at least around DC. Whatever does fall during the day will be subject to stronger sun and won't accumulate as efficiently. If it's all done or if the vast majority is over by daybreak then it's a moot point. Your point is totally valid. This won't be a big fluff bomb. And even with cloud cover there is insolation this time of year. We did have a fluff bomb in March in 2014 but it was MUCH colder than this storm. No sense derailing a thread over this stuff either folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: why would you use the NAM for anything over 48 hours, its a great short range model, but past 48 hours almost useless.... Useless is a strong word. while it is outside of its range it still helps to create consensus. Another tool Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Before someone goes ape sh$t and yells at me for posting the hour 84 NAM I have a real question about this... On the NAM... on TT it gives a scale for snow on the bottom right hand corner... what is that scale measuring... and has anyone seen pink depicted for snow before? It says mm/hr but 14 mm is about .55 inches of snow... doesnt seem right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Your point is totally valid. This won't be a big fluff bomb. And even with cloud cover there is insolation this time of year. We did have a fluff bomb in March in 2014 but it was MUCH colder than this storm. No sense derailing a thread over this stuff either folks. I'll move any more talk of it to banter but it doesn't bother me one bit if our ratios aren't great. If we get anything close to what the Euro/EPS is advertising it's going to be an all out awesome event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Let's drop the long range NAM discussion. It's been rehashed every single storm for like a decade. Inside of 48, yes, it carries some weight. Beyond that it should never be weighted stronger than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No matter how much you say it, we're about to be deluged with pearl clutching about it. When you can't decide if a miss east (ggem & minority EPS camp) or west (some gefs members & nam) is the bigger threat your in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, PDIII said: Before someone goes ape sh$t and yells at me for posting the hour 84 NAM I have a real question about this... On the NAM... on TT it gives a scale for snow on the bottom right hand corner... what is that scale measuring... and has anyone seen pink depicted for snow before? It's a radar reflectivity simulation, the scale is a measure of how heavily snow/sleet/zr/rain would be falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Your point is totally valid. This won't be a big fluff bomb. And even with cloud cover there is insolation this time of year. We did have a fluff bomb in March in 2014 but it was MUCH colder than this storm. No sense derailing a thread over this stuff either folks. Excellent points. Even the folks well west of 95 that did well during Snowquester (03/06/13) saw their accumulation rate drop drastically after 8-9 am. I would love a repeat of 03/17/14 IMBY, but as Bob said this storm has a warmer, 02/13/14 Miller A look to it aloft. Likely not a 'clean' system for us just east of 95, and that's even with tossing out the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Let's drop the long range NAM discussion. It's been rehashed every single storm for like a decade. Inside of 48, yes, it carries some weight. Beyond that it should never be weighted stronger than the globals. Preach brother... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 29 minutes ago, Ltrain said: V-day 2007, was that storm icy? My mind is blank on that one. And became sleet-turned-concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Excellent points. Even the folks well west of 95 that did well during Snowquester (03/06/13) saw their accumulation rate drop drastically after 8-9 am. I would love a repeat of 03/17/14 IMBY, but as Bob said this storm has a warmer, 02/13/14 Miller A look to it aloft. Likely not a 'clean' system for us just east of 95, and that's even with tossing out the 18Z NAM. I think a lot of us could be very happy with a 2-13-14 event with the knowledge that it is March and we might go drippy during the day. It wasn't fully expected it would be that bad during the day in Feb 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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