WxUSAF Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Ian said: Pretty good clustering, maybe a lean left as it passes. Wow...only a couple as far west as the GFS. Although EPS always seems to have less spread at this type of range for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: Wonder based off rapid intensification, should it happen , could the EPS solution? Eoro OP trend colder . At this point I would just assume the Euro temps are in the ballpark of where they should be. Could we see them trend colder, yes or even vice versa. But I don't think it is an issue of trending colder so much as it is an issue where this track sets up. With a rapid intensification you will see everything pull closer into the low so this may help in pulling the snow line farther east. So there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: also most consumers just want bottom line. Nobody wants to read technical discussions. Wes writes great stuff for CWB but i bet most people only read the top paragraphs. most people want to know how much...when its starting and if its going to happen yeah but if people are putting out BS without thinking.. I guess I don't care. even maue does it a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 There are a lot of ens members that develop an inverted trough kind of setup on Wed that passes through and forms a weak low off the coast that heads basically due east. Some more than light accums mixed in the members. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, EB89 said: Those numbers are starting look favorably consistent imo. 8"-9" from multiple ensemble means for the District (less dca) it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 And to throw some caution out there...the EPS has a cluster of solutions that look similar to the CMC. Even though SLP placement looks good, lack of phasing and compact precip shield doesn't really make it west of 95. It's a minority cluster but noticeable for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: it is? it looks like weak crap The QPF is 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: At this point I would just assume the Euro temps are in the ballpark of where they should be. Could we see them trend colder, yes or even vice versa. But I don't think it is an issue of trending colder so much as it is an issue where this track sets up. With a rapid intensification you will see everything pull closer into the low so this may help in pulling the snow line farther east. So there is that. Thanks , by the way, the day after with blowing snow and high winds will feel like deep winter, and as Bob just mentioned , even some additional light snow accums are possible on Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Wow...only a couple as far west as the GFS. Although EPS always seems to have less spread at this type of range for whatever reason. yeah and if anything I'd think the Euro is a little too amped/west at this range.. typical bias. though in this case a de-amp could mess up the phase but seems that's not super likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Here are the low tracks for the NAEFS. GFS op is on the western edge, and the CMC op is on the eastern edge. That's good news if you like snow. I just looked through some verification scores, and the NAEFS ensemble mean has been verifying at least as well as the op GFS on most metrics up to 24 hours before the event. At 72 hours out, the ensemble mean is clearly verifying better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z Panasonic Control Mean Can you expand that map south towards Richmond plz? Zoom out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Rather than Probability of >12" of snow it should be labeled the percent of ensembles that show greater than 12" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: why cant i get march 2001 out of my head Should focus more on the fact that we are due for a top 10 DC snowstorm in March. Every other winter month has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Ian said: Should focus more on the fact that we are due for a top 10 DC snowstorm in March. Every other winter month has one. did we just have one 2 years ago...that cold mid march storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 17 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z Panasonic Control Mean wait what? where do you get the panasonic? sure this isn't euro control? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: did we just have one 2 years ago...that cold mid march storm Not in DC. may have cracked the top 10 at Dulles but Dulles records are too short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: That's just code word for anything Euro 7.7" right? I thought that was top 10 at DCA? ahh I guess I've been absent too much this winter. 7.2 -- it's a top 10 for March (10) but I was talking all months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ji said: why cant i get march 2001 out of my head We are all scarred by that one, Ji. But this time we have cold air leading up to the storm. In that 2001 disaster, we were in the 50s and 60s the day before the rain started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Pretty notable analogs coming up on CIPS for the 12z gfs... Feb 83 Vday 2007&14 Jan 2000 March 1993 (stop throwing tomatoes please) And just for Ji....March 01 is on there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And to throw some caution out there...the EPS has a cluster of solutions that look similar to the CMC. Even though SLP placement looks good, lack of phasing and compact precip shield doesn't really make it west of 95. It's a minority cluster but noticeable for sure. True, but EPS also a decent cluster of our region being smoked... as in greater than about 15"... I counted about 15 members out of 51 that had that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: We are all scarred by that one, Ji. But this time we have cold air leading up to the storm. In that 2001 disaster, we were in the 50s and 60s the day before the rain started. i dont think that was the issue....there was no precipitation for us. that was the bigger issue lol. I mean we went from 70 yesterday to snow showers today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: True, but EPS also a decent cluster of our region being smoked... as in greater than about 15"... I counted about 15 members out of 51 that had that How many CMC like tracks are in the bunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think that was the issue....there was no precipitation for us. that was the bigger issue lol. I mean we went from 70 yesterday to snow showers today I like that QPF is headed upwards at this stage rather than downwards. I figured by now we'd be looking at scraps and consoling ourselves that "at least we get something" and "maybe it will get better." The biggies always lock in early and this seems to be locking in early. I can't wait for the wild NAM and RGEM runs this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Can someone post the panasonic wind maps? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 While we wait for 18z NAM and GFS, 15z SREFs, which should never be trusted, especially this far out but basically never, look okay to my untrained eye through Hour 87. Looks like .5 QPF already by then in DC, and lots more to come, and 850s are still okay. Don't shoot the messenger. Just throwing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Question that might have been covered earlier. Apologies if so. Are we still looking at 10:1 ratios? White paste is amazing, but fluff even better....especially when the 40 mph gusts kick in! Love dancing in the snownadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty notable analogs coming up on CIPS for the 12z gfs... Feb 83 Vday 2007&14 Jan 2000 March 1993 (stop throwing tomatoes please) And just for Ji....March 01 is on there too V-day 2007, was that storm icy? My mind is blank on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Ltrain said: V-day 2007, was that storm icy? My mind is blank on that one. Yes. Especially in AA county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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