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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Wonder based off rapid intensification, should it happen , could the EPS solution? Eoro OP  trend colder .  

At this point I would just assume the Euro temps are in the ballpark of where they should be. Could we see them trend colder, yes or even vice versa. But I don't think it is an issue of trending colder so much as it is an issue where this track sets up. With a rapid intensification you will see everything pull closer into the low so this may help in pulling the snow line farther east. So there is that.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

also most consumers just want bottom line. Nobody wants to read technical discussions. Wes writes great stuff for CWB but i bet most people only read the top paragraphs. most people want to know how much...when its starting and if its going to happen

yeah but if people are putting out BS without thinking.. I guess I don't care. even maue does it a whole lot.

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And to throw some caution out there...the EPS has a cluster of solutions that look similar to the CMC. Even though SLP placement looks good, lack of phasing and compact precip shield doesn't really make it west of 95. It's a minority cluster but noticeable for sure. 

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

At this point I would just assume the Euro temps are in the ballpark of where they should be. Could we see them trend colder, yes or even vice versa. But I don't think it is an issue of trending colder so much as it is an issue where this track sets up. With a rapid intensification you will see everything pull closer into the low so this may help in pulling the snow line farther east. So there is that.

Thanks , by the way, the day after with blowing snow and high winds will feel like deep winter, and as Bob just mentioned , even some additional light snow accums are possible on Weds.      

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow...only a couple as far west as the  GFS. Although EPS always seems to have less spread at this type of range for whatever reason.

yeah and if anything I'd think the Euro is a little too amped/west at this range.. typical bias. though in this case a de-amp could mess up the phase but seems that's not super likely.

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Here are the low tracks for the NAEFS.  GFS op is on the western edge, and the CMC op is on the eastern edge.  That's good news if you like snow.

I just looked through some verification scores, and the NAEFS ensemble mean has been verifying at least as well as the op GFS on most metrics up to 24 hours before the event.  At 72 hours out, the ensemble mean is clearly verifying better than the op.

LV6zlUi.png

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

why cant i get march 2001 out of my head

Should focus more on the fact that we are due for a top 10 DC snowstorm in March. Every other winter month has one.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's just code word for anything Euro 

7.7" right? I thought that was top 10 at DCA?

ahh I guess I've been absent too much this winter. :P 

7.2 -- it's a top 10 for March (10) but I was talking all months.

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29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

And to throw some caution out there...the EPS has a cluster of solutions that look similar to the CMC. Even though SLP placement looks good, lack of phasing and compact precip shield doesn't really make it west of 95. It's a minority cluster but noticeable for sure. 

True, but EPS also a decent cluster of our region being smoked... as in greater than about 15"... I counted about 15 members out of 51 that had that

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10 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

We are all scarred by that one, Ji.  But this time we have cold air leading up to the storm.  In that 2001 disaster, we were in the 50s and 60s the day before the rain started.

i dont think that was the issue....there was no precipitation for us. that was the bigger issue lol. I mean we went from 70 yesterday to snow showers today

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think that was the issue....there was no precipitation for us. that was the bigger issue lol. I mean we went from 70 yesterday to snow showers today

I like that QPF is headed upwards at this stage rather than downwards. I figured by now we'd be looking at scraps and consoling ourselves that "at least we get something" and "maybe it will get better." The biggies always lock in early and this seems to be locking in early. I can't wait for the wild NAM and RGEM runs this weekend.

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While we wait for 18z NAM and GFS, 15z SREFs, which should never be trusted, especially this far out but basically never, look okay to my untrained eye through Hour 87. Looks like .5 QPF already by then in DC, and lots more to come, and 850s are still okay. Don't shoot the messenger. Just throwing it out.

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty notable analogs coming up on CIPS for the 12z gfs...

Feb 83

Vday 2007&14

Jan 2000

March 1993 (stop throwing tomatoes please)

And just for Ji....March 01 is on there too

V-day 2007, was that storm icy? My mind is blank on that one. 

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