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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Roads are cleared really fast around here unless you live in a sparse neighborhood. Where you live plows will be out in force during and after. Roads would be easily passable by Wednesday morning. 

It's been a light winter...I'd argue things are cleaned by nightfall Tuesday.  This is a quick moving storm and a lot of the DOT budgets haven't been hit so equipment and manpower will not be sparse.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You've been following this pretty closely, so I'll ask you.  Does the euro develop the storm differently than the gfs?  Does it not have the low in the Tn Valley?

From what I can tell -- Euro doesn't have that secondary low that moves in to the Apps like the GFS does. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

From what I can tell -- Euro doesn't have that secondary low that moves in to the Apps like the GFS does. 

Looks like the GFS holds it back hence the NW burb with the coastal low.  I would imagine if the Ohio Valley energy weren't there it would look very similar to the Euro.

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I wasn't implying SV is right.. more that snowmaps are ruining winter weather forecasting. It's pretty sad how many mets only post snowmaps.. and of course the main response was SV is too low, lol.

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Ok I know this is uber picky but if the slp can get about 30 miles more north in its path before it stalls and turns ene I would go from about 15" to 30". Yes I'm getting greedy but why not. And I will be totally happy with 10-15" but man if that low gains just a smudge more latitude before it espaces and the crazy convective band pushes up here WOW. 

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5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

12z euro op...Between hours 96-102 the low seems to be stationary and drops 8mb during that timeframe.  Better look than the 00z run for big snow potential...

Maybe the EPS look helps the I -95 crowd in terms of thermals. Looking at the concensus from the ensembles appears the Low center a bit further offshore , almost perfect !!

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AFD is in...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Attention has turned to the upcoming system expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic Monday night-Tuesday. The potential exists for
accumulating snow over portions of the Mid-Atlantic region.

High pressure will depart the Mid-Atlantic region Monday. Two
systems will approach the region, one from the northern stream
and one from the southern stream Monday night. These two systems
will likely phase off the east coast early next week. Many specifics
are unknown at this time but models are trending that accumulating
snow is expected with higher confidence at higher elevations.
Changes in track and timing of the phasing of the two systems will
alter conditions across the region. At this time, rain or snow is
likely Monday night-Tuesday.

There are factors working for the possibility of snow as well as
against: if the Euro solution is correct the low will deepen
along the Carolina coast around midnight/early Tuesday morning.
The GFS takes an upper low from the Ohio Valley, across the Mid
Atlantic and theN into New England. The latter would not be the
better solution for snowfall but both are implying that the
sub-1300 meter thickness line would set up somewhere west of
I-95. If this indeed is how this develops then west of the
cities could see snow overnight. East of I-95 would be a mix or
liquid: if air flow comes off the Bay/Atlantic water
temperatures are 47-50. Against is the fact that we are now
entering mid March. After sunrise it will become hard for the
sun to work on the atmosphere. And Euro has the low deepening
east of the Delmarva by midday Tuesday. Generally once it
reaches that location it is difficult to get accumulating
snowfall regardless of the time of year - the moisture cuts off
in the Mid Atlantic.

Upslope snow showers will likely continue into Wednesday along
the western slopes of the Allegheny Front. Below normal
temperatures are expected mid to late week as high pressure
moves into the region Thursday. A clipper system may impact the
region late week.
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Just glanced at the discussion and didn't see it mentioned. Euro has a stronger shortwave running up the trough from the south that closes off around OC 102 hrs.. We also see the 700's closed off of OC at 102 hrs as well as the surface low present as well. So what we have is a stacked low. This is is the reason we see such a rapid intensification from hour 90 of 998mb to 983mb 12 hours later.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I know this is uber picky but if the slp can get about 30 miles more north in its path before it stalls and turns ene I would go from about 15" to 30". Yes I'm getting greedy but why not. And I will be totally happy with 10-15" but man if that low gains just a smudge more latitude before it espaces and the crazy convective band pushes up here WOW. 

I know what you mean. I was just thinking the same thing.

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3 minutes ago, Ian said:

I wasn't implying SV is right.. more that snowmaps are ruining winter weather forecasting. It's pretty sad how many mets only post snowmaps.. and of course the main response was SV is too low, lol.

i have a new strategy...no more snow maps. Ill post surface or 500mb maps that most people dont get and  let others on FB post snow maps. This way i am off the hook lol

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Something I haven't seen posted for the euro would be a surface temp map.  Just wondering how cold we are looking.  I'd think pretty darn cold.

During the storm? Not really. Freezing line more or less hugs 95 or just west. You're upper 20s.

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Just now, Ji said:

i have a new strategy...no more snow maps. Ill post surface or 500mb maps that most people dont get and  let others on FB post snow maps. This way i am off the hook lol

Whatever in the grand scheme but then people wonder why everyone has no clue what to expect. Root of the problem is a lot of forecasters can't forecast without lots of prety maps anymore.

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just glanced at the discussion and didn't see it mentioned. Euro has a stronger shortwave running up the trough from the south that closes off around OC 102 hrs.. We also see the 700's closed off of OC at 102 hrs as well as the surface low present as well. So what we have is a stacked low. This is is the reason we see such a rapid intensification from hour 90 of 998mb to 983mb 12 hours later.

Wonder based off rapid intensification, should it happen , could the EPS solution? Euro OP  trend colder .  

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1 minute ago, Ian said:

Whatever in the grand scheme but then people wonder why everyone has no clue what to expect. Root of the problem is a lot of forecasters can't forecast without lots of prety maps anymore.

there are alot of bottom line maps. Weatherbell makes it easy for anyone to throw a forecast up and be fairly accurate. the models are alot better....weatherbell makes them eye candy for people that dont know anything to interpert them....better tools...etc

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5 minutes ago, Ian said:

Whatever in the grand scheme but then people wonder why everyone has no clue what to expect. Root of the problem is a lot of forecasters can't forecast without lots of prety maps anymore.

also most consumers just want bottom line. Nobody wants to read technical discussions. Wes writes great stuff for CWB but i bet most people only read the top paragraphs. most people want to know how much...when its starting and if its going to happen

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even during the superstorm we mixed, so i think a period of mixed precip should be expected.  also, the AFD mentioned the warm waters off the coast, so that could play into the freezing line pushing west a bit as well.  doesn't matter, though.  after this winter, any period of accumulating snow is welcome.

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