March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Is Ian correct that they are the same maps same run? They look almost nothing alike.

He's making the agrument to not buy the snow maps for what they say.  He's right.  Look at the placement of features and their strength.  Still...you're a fool to not be excited at the 500/700 presentation.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Is Ian correct that they are the same maps same run? They look almost nothing alike.

Yes. One is Storm Vista, the other is that other place. My guess is the other place is taking the places where temps are iffy at the surface and disregarding it given rates will be pretty heavy (which is true, rates will over come any surface temp problems). Storm Vista may be saying, nope temp is 33, not snow. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Temps are really iffy along 95 and east. thus why I think the Storm Vista map isn't as gung-ho as that other place. 

Looking at Fairfax as an example

From 00z Tuesday on

 

37

 

32

 

33

 

33

 

33

 

31

 

 

 

sure, with heavy rates those surface temps won't matter

My post was an example why those snow maps shouldn't be taken verbatim. Gotta look at the levels. 

 

Considering start temps and column leading in, I have a suspicion that the euro is too warm at the surface. How often do temps climb that much during heavy rates with cold enough 850's and 925's? The run would be a bomb. Probably not like wxbell but I'm pretty skeptical of SV too. 

[mappy]

Sorry guys -- didn't mean to get into a snow map discussion. Mainly, just don't take those maps verbatim. QPF is great, and any surface temp issues will be fine with heavy rates. 

 

[caviman2201]

One interesting thing to note is that at hour 96, the 540 1000-500 thickness line goes just to the west of DC & 95, NE through the Baltimore harbor.  Both before and after that, its well S & E of the area.  I'm assuming we will have a period of rainy mix for those of us east of the fall line.

[Deck Pic]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You got a 700 panel?  Could be there.  

700 and 925 don't even come close to tickling DC.  It's the surface.  Weatherbell has its biases, and SV doesn't think snow can stick at 32.1

 

ETA - there could be a warm nose somewhere else in the column of course...I fully expect to mix.  But I don't think that is why the SV maps are like that.  I don't think they even have access to the entire sounding. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Considering start temps and column leading in, I have a suspicion that the euro is too warm at the surface. How often do temps climb that much during heavy rates with cold enough 850's and 925's? The run would be a bomb. Probably not like wxbell but I'm pretty skeptical of SV too. 

I'm with you. Column is cold all the way down, except at the surface. Which a number of us have said, won't matter if its dumping qpf. 

I'm paying more attention to QPF at this point. Euro was a bomb compared to 00z. That's all I care about at this time.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

700 and 925 don't even come close to tickling DC.  It's the surface.  Weatherbell has its biases, and SV doesn't think snow can stick at 32.1

Alright then.  I'm satisfied the SV maps are bs.  Enough silly talk about the specifics of 96HR snow maps...focus on the strength, timing and location of everything.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

700 and 925 don't even come close to tickling DC.  It's the surface.  Weatherbell has its biases, and SV doesn't think snow can stick at 32.1

The entire column looks fine... I just think that as you just posted SV thinks snow can't accumulate at 32+ degrees

[Yeoman]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Temps are really iffy along 95 and east. thus why I think the Storm Vista map isn't as gung-ho as that other place. 

Looking at Fairfax as an example

From 00z Tuesday on

 

37

 

32

 

33

 

33

 

33

 

31

 

 

 

sure, with heavy rates those surface temps won't matter

My post was an example why those snow maps shouldn't be taken verbatim. Gotta look at the levels. 

Those modeled temps always end up being much lower in situations like this..

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Those modeled temps always end up being much lower in situations like this..

Yeah I typically find temps end up significantly colder than modeled in our biggest snowstorms. That said, none of those have occurred in March.

[mappy]

Please take the discussion on when watches/warnings will be issued to banter. 

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Those modeled temps always end up being much lower in situations like this..

yes....January 2016 was supposed to be a upper 20s to low 30s in the days leading up to the storm...and it ended up being 20-25 for everyone.  

[WxUSAF]

Folks in the general vicinity of the 95 corridor should abandon the hope of a 12"+ pure powder bomb. It's march, it's the mid Atlantic, and we almost always mix for a time even in the best KUs. This is a solid antecedent airmass, heaviest precip is at night, so that's two big things going for us, but the above factors still apply. Throw in the risk of a west track and people should not be surprised in the least if many of us mix. What I like is seeing precip come in as a heavy thump, so if we mix/dryslot, we already have a bunch on the ground. 

[Bob Chill]

Euro has some energy swing through on the backside on Wednesday that would drop another inch or 2. Back to back deep winter days in the middle of March. Love it. 

[MillvilleWx]

The 500 and 700mb orientation through the best time period are a thing of beauty. The 700mb low crosses right under us with intense lift over the area, leading to the best look of the qpf shield around 6-18z. Judging by the thermals we can see on the models (Soundings on Accuweather take time), the entire area west of 95 should be without issue in the favored elevation areas due to the strong VV's seen at 700  and banding structures over the region which would  be nuts. This a southern stream disturbance, so QPF with these types of systems can be very robust. Given the easterly component of the wind off the Atlantic with the ongoing cyclogenesis, there would be no shortage of moisture to work with and deformation axis on the NW side of the low will be large. It was a beautiful run and with the way this winter has gone, I'd take that sucker and run like hell. 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro has some energy swing through on the backside on Wednesday that would drop another inch or 2. Back to back deep winter days in the middle of March. Love it. 

Hey Bob! Could you tell me what type of start time were looking at down my way? Im a police officer and my department is inquiring about impacts etc.. I can handle the details just need the timeframe you guys are thinking. 

[WVclimo]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro has some energy swing through on the backside on Wednesday that would drop another inch or 2. Back to back deep winter days in the middle of March. Love it. 

Looks like some good breezes to go along with it for Wednesday as well.

[WinterWxLuvr]

27 minutes ago, mappy said:

Whole view QPF map through 06z Wednesday

Thanks for remembering us "hicks in the sticks". 

I'm assuming includes whatever the euro forecasts for this afternoon (which can't be much).

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Hey Bob! Could you tell me what type of start time were looking at down my way? Im a police officer and my department is inquiring about impacts etc.. I can handle the details just need the timeframe you guys are thinking. 

Around 4-6pm. Comes in like a wall. You guys get raked between 8pm and 2am. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Around 4-6pm. Comes in like a wall. You guys get raked between 8pm and 2am. 

What's the thought on start time up here in the northern part of the state.  Any chance to see some daylight snow?

[mappy]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thanks for remembering us "hicks in the sticks". 

I'm assuming includes whatever the euro forecasts for this afternoon (which can't be much).

Ha, you're welcome. Subtract .1 from your total. 

[packfan98]

Here's the Eurowx snowmap from DT that someone was asking for:

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, mappy said:

Ha, you're welcome. Subtract .1 from your total. 

You've been following this pretty closely, so I'll ask you.  Does the euro develop the storm differently than the gfs?  Does it not have the low in the Tn Valley?

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

What's the thought on start time up here in the northern part of the state.  Any chance to see some daylight snow?

We all pretty much start at the same time. It really does come in like a wall. You would probably see first flakes shortly after sunset and then have 4" on the ground by 2am and pounding thereafter. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like a 2/13/14 redux.  

[Buddy1987]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Around 4-6pm. Comes in like a wall. You guys get raked between 8pm and 2am. 

Thanks a lot for that. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

So a lot of you have welcomed me to these boards with open arms since I moved from Louisiana in mid-December. I came in with such high hopes and optimism and had it crushed out of me by this winter. Storm after storm, I saw models throw up maps just like the ones I've seen the last two days, only to have those hopes dashed. 

 

I've only seen snow above 3" once, and only seen flakes 4 times (not counting the meager flakes this season here). I have yet to break 1" here in Gaithersburg.

 

I want to experience this so badly. I'm guarded now though in my excitement. I guess what I'm asking... is should I actually be preparing now for this to happen?

 

Do I need to buy anything, prepare for any long period stuck inside, how soon would the roads be passable if the most intense of maps comes into being?

 

I really want to take my kid out sledding!

banter thread. please. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

So a lot of you have welcomed me to these boards with open arms since I moved from Louisiana in mid-December. I came in with such high hopes and optimism and had it crushed out of me by this winter. Storm after storm, I saw models throw up maps just like the ones I've seen the last two days, only to have those hopes dashed. 

 

I've only seen snow above 3" once, and only seen flakes 4 times (not counting the meager flakes this season here). I have yet to break 1" here in Gaithersburg.

 

I want to experience this so badly. I'm guarded now though in my excitement. I guess what I'm asking... is should I actually be preparing now for this to happen?

 

Do I need to buy anything, prepare for any long period stuck inside, how soon would the roads be passable if the most intense of maps comes into being?

 

I really want to take my kid out sledding!

Roads are cleared really fast around here unless you live in a sparse neighborhood. Where you live plows will be out in force during and after. Roads would be easily passable by Wednesday morning. 

[yoda]

EPS should be out in about 20 mins correct?  I think I remember seeing that posted yesterday... I am hoping that the EPS looks closely like the EURO OP