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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Surface is a non issue for sure. Below freezing with a ton on the ground before going above freezing. I'm skeptical in that even DC goes above freezing during the rakage. This is a sick run for everyone with an unusual jack over and SE of DC

Even if slightly above freezing, we've already been hammered before then it looks like from what you relate here.  Hate to bring up the "rates" thing, but when temps do get marginal by 12Z or so, I'd think that would overcome anything?  Or maybe it's pretty well done by then anyhow.  Looks like the mid-levels are good going by an 850 plot someone posted a short time ago, even if the surface goes somewhat above for a time.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Also, great example why the snow maps should be taken with a grain of salt

 

 

SV is a good cautionary tale.  As Weatherbell is a bit silly sometimes with ignoring the surface.  In this case, SV is a little silly.  Even SV's own output has temps of 32-33 at DCA for the whole event.  Never goes above 34.  And the rest of the column seems to be fine.  Doesn't mean there won't be surface issues or mixing, but with that amount of QPF and precip type snow, I don't care if it is 35.  It's sticking 

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Temps are really iffy along 95 and east. thus why I think the Storm Vista map isn't as gung-ho as that other place. 

Looking at Fairfax as an example

From 00z Tuesday on

37

32

33

33

33

31

 

sure, with heavy rates those surface temps won't matter

My post was an example why those snow maps shouldn't be taken verbatim. Gotta look at the levels. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You got a 700 panel?  Could be there.  

700 is plenty cold door to door. Must be the dreaded 800mb warm nose in the mix. We're probably overthinking anyways. It's a sweet run if not tucked a little close. Going by past history there would be some mixing in the typical areas but a big hit likely most everywhere until you get a good bit SE of 95

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

 

SV is a good cautionary tale.  As Weatherbell is a bit silly sometimes with ignoring the surface.  In this case, SV is a little silly.  Even SV's own output has temps of 32-33 at DCA for the whole event.  Never goes above 34.  And the rest of the column seems to be fine.  Doesn't mean there won't be surface issues or mixing, but with that amount of QPF and precip type snow, I don't care if it is 35.  It's sticking 

;) 

Just now, mappy said:

Temps are really iffy along 95 and east. thus why I think the Storm Vista map isn't as gung-ho as that other place. 

Looking at Fairfax as an example

From 00z Tuesday on

37

32

33

33

33

31

sure, with heavy rates those surface temps won't matter

My post was an example why those snow maps shouldn't be taken verbatim. Gotta look at the levels. 

 

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