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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Serious question...can a TV met tell me why the RPM is even used on air before snowstorms?  It's always out in left field.  

TV mets love to use it because they get the full suite for free. It's made by a private company (WSI) and it's pretty much a unspoken rule that TV stations use it almost exclusively.

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36 minutes ago, cae said:

I like that the German model has off-hour runs.  The coastal ticked east on the 18z run, but it's wetter.

LElbwy6.png

wCY4Yvc.png

Can I buy that please!!! Another win win. It's not really a west track just a much healthier precip shield. 

The obvious issue I saw with the euro and its compact qpf was the separation from the northern stream energy.  So instead of the Midwest system pulling the coastal in and drawing moisture west up the inverted trough connecting them it acts to suppress the development of a healthy Ccb precip shield to the west. The ggem seems to do that too but it's about 30 miles west of the euro so not as bad for us. The NAM icon gfs and uk seem in the more interaction and expansive qpf camp. 

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31 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's early, but SREF plumes for BWI range anywhere from a bunch at 0 to 25 inches. There also seems to be a lot between 8 and 15 inches.

Those are useless. The arw members go crazy over amped. The Nmm members sometimes seem to have convective feedback issues and end up suppressing the qpf because of it.  The spread makes them a useless tool. 

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My theory proved correct. Gefs mean supports the op and got better for a lot of folks to the west and southwest. Most importantly it got better for my yard. And Matt and Ian and randys. 

 

I'm on phone so if someone can post the 12z and 18z panels it would be appreciated. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My theory proved correct. Gefs mean supports the op and got better for a lot of folks to the west and southwest. Most importantly it got better for my yard. And Matt and Ian and randys. 

 

I'm on phone so if someone can post the 12z and 18z panels it would be appreciated. 

The good news is as the gefs, and even the EPS to a lesser extend, have trended towards a less expansive and somewhat less extreme event over the last 24 hours, they have also trended towards our area being the bullseye. So I guess we're lucky in that regard. :)

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The good news is as the gefs, and even the EPS to a lesser extend, have trended towards a less expansive and somewhat less extreme event over the last 24 hours, they have also trended towards our area being the bullseye. So I guess we're lucky in that regard. :)

My biggest worry the whole time has been a mostly rain storm. My second biggest worry was weak sauce rates in general. You know I want a bomb like everyone else. But if we've had every med range bomb verify our climo maps would need to be re-written. They tame down in the short range quite often. 

0z is the official kickoff to the short range. I like what I see right now. My yard may actually survive a disaster. Hopefully tomorrow things juice back up we get the better of both worlds. A cold snowstorm in mid march. The storm is currently progged to move to fast for anyone anywhere to get a historic storm except maybe a small area or too. 

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Just got back home here. Going through the last 45 min I noticed the comments about the SREF. I highly recommend to people thst are unaware of its processes to use it with extreme caution. I usually tend to look at the SREF so as to get a better understanding of which way the NAM may be leaning come 0z time. If you see the SREF plumes jacked up and amped in regard to qpf production, you can get a pretty good idea of which way the NAM may be headed. Just an fyi for some folks.

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