osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's early, but SREF plumes for BWI range anywhere from a bunch at 0 to 25 inches. There also seems to be a lot between 8 and 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's early, but SREF plumes for BWI range anywhere from a bunch at 0 to 25 inches. There also seems to be a lot between 8 and 15 inches. That would be the 15z, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's early, but SREF plumes for BWI range anywhere from a bunch at 0 to 25 inches. There also seems to be a lot between 8 and 15 inches. Well that narrows it down now, doesn't it! I'll accept the mean of 12.5" then and call it a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's early, but SREF plumes for BWI range anywhere from a bunch at 0 to 25 inches. There also seems to be a lot between 8 and 15 inches. LOL SREFs. Folks please be extremely wary of the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Serious question...can a TV met tell me why the RPM is even used on air before snowstorms? It's always out in left field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL SREFs. Folks please be extremely wary of the SREFs. I feel like the only thing they're useful for is looking for trends in track changes or maybe their mean QPF but even then the overamped members tend to skew things. Other than that, use at your own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Serious question...can a TV met tell me why the RPM is even used on air before snowstorms? It's always out in left field. TV mets love to use it because they get the full suite for free. It's made by a private company (WSI) and it's pretty much a unspoken rule that TV stations use it almost exclusively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GEFS is coming in with a weaker midwest low and a slightly stronger low pulling up the coast. Mean low is similarly placed as the 12 z GEFS run but the individual members are west of guidance. Mean qpf is also coming in somewhat wetter as well especially south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 36 minutes ago, cae said: I like that the German model has off-hour runs. The coastal ticked east on the 18z run, but it's wetter. Can I buy that please!!! Another win win. It's not really a west track just a much healthier precip shield. The obvious issue I saw with the euro and its compact qpf was the separation from the northern stream energy. So instead of the Midwest system pulling the coastal in and drawing moisture west up the inverted trough connecting them it acts to suppress the development of a healthy Ccb precip shield to the west. The ggem seems to do that too but it's about 30 miles west of the euro so not as bad for us. The NAM icon gfs and uk seem in the more interaction and expansive qpf camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Because Tommy Tasselmeyer lives and dies by it. It's trash, but he just lives for his RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 31 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's early, but SREF plumes for BWI range anywhere from a bunch at 0 to 25 inches. There also seems to be a lot between 8 and 15 inches. Those are useless. The arw members go crazy over amped. The Nmm members sometimes seem to have convective feedback issues and end up suppressing the qpf because of it. The spread makes them a useless tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 My theory proved correct. Gefs mean supports the op and got better for a lot of folks to the west and southwest. Most importantly it got better for my yard. And Matt and Ian and randys. I'm on phone so if someone can post the 12z and 18z panels it would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My theory proved correct. Gefs mean supports the op and got better for a lot of folks to the west and southwest. I'm on phone so if someone can post the 12z and 18z panels it would be appreciated. the SLP panels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, yoda said: the SLP panels? Mean qpf works fine. Shows the shift nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looking much better than the depression that was last night's Euro. Colder trend, and I believe wetter from what I have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Mean qpf works fine. Shows the shift nicely. FWIW, here is hr 60 and hr 66 18z GEFS SLP placement position: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18z GEFS followed by 12z GEFS. Bob's theory supported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: LOL, I can't remember what 12z looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My theory proved correct. Gefs mean supports the op and got better for a lot of folks to the west and southwest. Most importantly it got better for my yard. And Matt and Ian and randys. I'm on phone so if someone can post the 12z and 18z panels it would be appreciated. The good news is as the gefs, and even the EPS to a lesser extend, have trended towards a less expansive and somewhat less extreme event over the last 24 hours, they have also trended towards our area being the bullseye. So I guess we're lucky in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, I can't remember what 12z looked like 12z 90 http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2017031112/washdc/gefs_snow_mean_washdc_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 12z 90 http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2017031112/washdc/gefs_snow_mean_washdc_16.png Can't access. Gave it up at the end of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, I can't remember what 12z looked like page 38 has a map posted. similar to 18 but 18 is wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, H2O said: page 38 has a map posted. similar to 18 but 18 is wetter Thanks, I'll check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Can't access. Gave it up at the end of Jan. 12z GEFS at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Thanks, I'll check it out ah, you wanted snow map. page 38 has QPF maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z GEFS Mean QPF (Top), 18z GEFS Mean QPF (Bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: The good news is as the gefs, and even the EPS to a lesser extend, have trended towards a less expansive and somewhat less extreme event over the last 24 hours, they have also trended towards our area being the bullseye. So I guess we're lucky in that regard. My biggest worry the whole time has been a mostly rain storm. My second biggest worry was weak sauce rates in general. You know I want a bomb like everyone else. But if we've had every med range bomb verify our climo maps would need to be re-written. They tame down in the short range quite often. 0z is the official kickoff to the short range. I like what I see right now. My yard may actually survive a disaster. Hopefully tomorrow things juice back up we get the better of both worlds. A cold snowstorm in mid march. The storm is currently progged to move to fast for anyone anywhere to get a historic storm except maybe a small area or too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just got back home here. Going through the last 45 min I noticed the comments about the SREF. I highly recommend to people thst are unaware of its processes to use it with extreme caution. I usually tend to look at the SREF so as to get a better understanding of which way the NAM may be leaning come 0z time. If you see the SREF plumes jacked up and amped in regard to qpf production, you can get a pretty good idea of which way the NAM may be headed. Just an fyi for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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