HighStakes Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Ian said: what a run. Yes. Beautiful run. Current airmass is about as you could ask for this time of the year leading into a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: I'm not quite sure we'd want that scenario. The euro tends to verify better with precip shields, but this gfs is gold! If we want colder surface and mid levels then we definitely want that scenario. I personally thought the compact precip shield on the euro was suspect. I thought the track was ideal and temps looked really good. GFS was even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If we want colder surface and mid levels then we definitely want that scenario. I personally thought the compact precip shield on the euro was suspect. I thought the track was ideal and temps looked really good. GFS was even colder. That sounds feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Funny. The snowfall map looks a lot like yesterdays 12 Euro snowfall map. It hooks around and screws Philly and NYC while DC and BOS get crushed. I have hard time believing KEWR gets screwed by a 983 low that tracks just inside the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 All snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Commuteaggedon in 2011 produced widespread tree damage and power outages in my area. I remember the aftermath looked similar to the area after the derecho came through. If this really ends up as 1-1.5" qpf falling into 32-33 degree air, is there anything preventing a similar outcome? I suppose Pepco got their act together and did a serious job pruning the trees, but you'd still expect tree damage if not power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 FXUS61 KLWX 111920 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 220 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 It is still a bit early for us to be issuing a watch, but this will likely happen on the midnight shift tonight. If this storm continues to develop as expected warnings/advisories likely to be out by this time Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Interesting to see the total precip forecasts from 12z to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This is a really interesting evolution. Take a look at the last 8 runs on the GFS after the storm clears our latitude to see how the phase completes. We can see why this is happening very early on. The stronger and more consolidated southern stream shortwave is in a more favorable orientation for phasing. This allows energy to transfer from the NS shortwave quicker and develop a stronger storm with a more well defined jet and better lift (hence the more expensive CCB). The Euro, while still having the better alignment configuration did not transfer as much energy and instead caused a bit of inference on the developing low level jet and subsidence between the two shortwaves, hence the less defined CCB Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I truly believe if the ns energy continues to weaken come tonight and it allows the coastal to take over moreso, the precipitation field will look a lot more impressive on the west side of the storm. Models always tend to underdo this. Looking forward to the 0z suite now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Well, I think we're seeing why the globals (at least the EC and GFS) are targeting I-95 and east with heavy snowfall amounts. I think ERS alluded to this as well -- it's all about the rates. Notice the 850 mb temps from the 18Z GFS in the pics below...the first one is valid at 06Z Tue, and the second one at 09Z. Notice that bullseye of lowering 850 Ts. Obviously, the GFS here (and probably the 12Z EC) are picking up on intense UVVs and sharpening frontogenesis lifting ENE. Without this, MBY (AA County) wouldn't normally stand a chance at 8+ inches in this type of setup (analog). It's a precarious tightrope to walk on, but I'm more than game if it happens. It was the rates that made the 03/16-17 2014 event IMBY, along with the fact that they occurred mostly at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said: Interesting to see the total precip forecasts from 12z to 18z. It's expanding back to the sw again. Saw several post about that earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10:1 Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It looks like it got bullied by hp to the north coming in stronger. You could see it as early as hr24. It actually helps instead of hurts us this run. The coastal tries to scoot east and a norlun forms over the area. Amazing what a difference the initial distance between the SLP and the 500mb low can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS has some pretty legit cold following the storm. This snow will last as long as march snow can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 10:1 Kuchera That 25 is my front yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, pasnownut said: still wraparound snows at 78. Yes....its happy hour. Drink up everyone! Nut It amazes me how the Happy hour gfs actually makes us happy more often than not, lol And really? Wrap-around shows this run? (So we're looking at a bit longer duration?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Well, I think we're seeing why the globals (at least the EC and GFS) are targeting I-95 and east with heavy snowfall amounts. I think ERS alluded to this as well -- it's all about the rates. Notice the 850 mb temps from the 18Z GFS in the pics below...the first one is valid at 06Z Tue, and the second one at 09Z. Notice that bullseye of lowering 850 Ts. Obviously, the GFS here (and probably the 12Z EC) are picking up on intense UVVs and sharpening frontogenesis lifting ENE. Without this, MBY (AA County) wouldn't normally stand a chance at 8+ inches in this type of setup (analog). It's a precarious tightrope to walk on, but I'm more than game if it happens. It was the rates that made the 03/16-17 2014 event IMBY, along with the fact that they occurred mostly at night. Pics straightened out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS has some pretty legit cold following the storm. This snow will last as long as march snow can. Negative. Sun angle will scorch snow fairly quickly regardless of temperature Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WxMan1 said: Pics straightened out.. You said "I-95 & East...you mean I-95 and west? Or just along the immeidate I-95 corridor to the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: You said "I-95 & East...you mean I-95 and west? Or just along the immeidate I-95 corridor to the bay? I guess I meant along and not-far-east of 95. I still see western areas doing fine -- for them it's all about the QPF (obviously). But I kept wondering why we're seeing from the GFS/EC this retardation of the warmer air farther northward across PG and AA counties (esp east of the fall line). Now I know why.. Problem is, simulating the exact location of the best UVVs/deformation/fgen is a tricky proposition over 48 hours out. Hell, it's tough enough 12-24 hours out, as you are well aware... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It really is similar in some respects to the euro with progression and track but the deform/shield pushes further west. Euro is very compact. Gfs seems to use the inverted trough west of the low to enhance precip. Euro was doing that then lost it last run. Hopefully just a fluke run. This gfs run was money. Cold. Wet. Expansive. 10"+ most of the region. This was the win win scenario of a wetter colder solution. Hopefully this is the fist step in a trend this way at the end. Would be nice to have this all come together at gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: I guess I meant along and not-far-east of 95. I still see western areas doing fine -- for them it's all about the QPF (obviously). But I kept wondering why we're seeing from the GFS/EC this retardation of the warmer air farther northward across PG and AA counties (esp east of the fall line). Now I know why.. Problem is, simulating the exact location of the best UVVs/deformation/fgen is a tricky proposition over 48 hours out. Hell, it's tough enough 12-24 hours out, as you are well aware... Gotcha...thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Negative. Sun angle will scorch snow fairly quickly regardless of temperature Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk As evidenced on 3/17/14 and 3/25/13. I shoveled 8.5" of heavy wet snow the morning of 3/17/14, realizing that if I only waited until midday, I would have been able to easily drive through the bare spots on the pavement. #I'mNotShovelingTuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I like that the German model has off-hour runs. The coastal ticked east on the 18z run, but it's wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 A fine run of the GFS for 18Z happy hour for sure. It was a relief to see the precipitation field expand as it did and up the amounts. Going by what I recall from earlier discussion, the surface low is very close to what the 12Z Euro showed in terms of path? Yet of course the Euro had a far more conservative or consolidated precip field, and far drier on the western side. Is most of that due to the northern stream shortwave being squashed a bit more (to the south, and weakened) in the 18Z GFS compared to the Euro (where it sapped some of the western edge moisture in particular)? That's sort of what I'm getting out of this, doing a quick look/analysis of the GFS and prior discussion of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks solid. Still a lot of time left, but we may be seeing the historical aspect of this disappear and a more solid, 6-12 inch snowstorm developing. Totals have really come down across the board a lot over the past day. Still time to reverse the trend, but we may be settling into the range now. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 From Bob's favorite model (ICON) http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/meteogram.php?stn=Washington&mod=dwd_icon&run=18&var=std&lang=en&map=us At DCA the surface temp drops during the period of heaviest precip, though the 850 temp hovers near or slightly above 32. Overall it indicates about 21 mm or 0.8 inch of QPF... of course how much of that falls as snow vs. mix and/or rain remains a central question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Some ridiculous cold for Thursday morning on the GFS 2-m temperatures. Low-mid teens around the metro areas, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Some ridiculous cold for Thursday morning on the GFS 2-m temperatures. Low-mid teens around the metro areas, anyone? Goodbye tidal basin cherry blossoms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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