yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 66 994 SLP east of OC by about 150 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks like we get deformed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS looks similar to the euro track now. Moving more ene as it passes our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 DC crushed at 66. Nice run for just about everybody. We dont need no stinking Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Very expansive area west of 95 with 1"+ QPF. This is an excellent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: NS giving up earlier. Should be good for temps. Precip shield look much improved for the western folks. Good run incoming. At h5 the ns was much less pronounced. I suppose that let the precip expand. Losing the Ohio valley low didn't hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nice to see a round low instead of a dagger. In the perfect spot for a cold tuck, but there's not much wiggle room here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Damn, i thought we were done around 63 hours, but we get shellacked at 66 as it pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1.25 QPF D.C. by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, mattie g said: Completely agree. I think it would be reasonable to forecast anything between 4-14" in Fairfax for this thing. There's a realistic chance for a big, hard-hitting event, but just as much for a wet failure. Alright, who's stalking who...great minds think alike " I told a friend yesterday that I expected a range from 5" to 15" in and around D.C. The only change I'll make to that simple thought would be to give a -1 to both extremes...4 to 14 with the mid-range looking good. I'm still not ready to give a specific number for certain locales. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Very expansive area west of 95 with 1"+ QPF. This is an excellent run. Yeah, it's glorious. Cold aloft. Surface hangs around 32, plenty wet. Nothing to complain about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Damn, i thought we were done around 63 hours, but we get shellacked at 66 as it pulls away Much better for all. Surprised at the variance this close. Shows the delicate interactions I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS very nice for DC and points west. Possibly 10"+ Western Burbs according to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yeah, it's glorious. Cold aloft. Surface hangs around 32, plenty wet. Nothing to complain about here. It really is similar in some respects to the euro with progression and track but the deform/shield pushes further west. Euro is very compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Guys, we tend to follow the same practice with these probs as NHC does with their track forecast -- instead of wild swings W to E or vice-versa from one forecast cycle to the next, you're more likely to see gradual shifts. What if the EC is an anomaly? I mean, it is east of most EC members and east of the EC mean. In situations like these, it's best to not swing from one end of the goalpost to the other.. Thats why you guys get paid to forecast and we are just weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 winter storm watches already posted about an hour or so ago for NE of us (via NWS Mt. Holly), LWX's AFD this afternoon indicated they were likely to issue watches for their zones by midnight tonight with warnings by the afternoon shift tomorrow if current trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Tremendous run. I thought the GFS was a little wonky with the NW precip shield a few runs ago but this works very nicely. Good slp track and great to see the ns cave a bit quicker. Nice to see as we get closer in time. Gives us more wiggle room. This run is the goldilocks scenario. We walk the line perfectly, manage to get the heavy precip without a warm air intrusion. Now if it could just not trend in any direction at all for the next 2 days please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Much improved with a little more after this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Lakes low trended substantially east of 12z at 500MB, somehow the surface depiction is further southwest. Doesn't make much sense. but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Good to see the temps becoming less and less of an issue with today's runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 still wraparound snows at 78. Yes....its happy hour. Drink up everyone! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Now to see if Bob's theory on ensembles at close range comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Lakes low trended substantially east of 12z at 500MB, somehow the surface depiction is further southwest. Doesn't make much sense. but I'll take it. It looks like it got bullied by hp to the north coming in stronger. You could see it as early as hr24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 what a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It really is similar in some respects to the euro with progression and track but the deform/shield pushes further west. Euro is very compact. I'm not quite sure we'd want that scenario. The euro tends to verify better with precip shields, but this gfs is gold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Funny. The snowfall map looks a lot like yesterdays 12 Euro snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Funny how the jackpot for the entire northeast this run is around like Fredericksburg on the tropical tidbits snowmap. More than NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Soundings are going to be really good on this run. With the NS low giving up sooner there is much less damage done in the mid levels. Also helps the surface. There is no mixing worries until you get pretty far SE of DC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Is it still a quick hitter or much more prolonged on GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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