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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

NS giving up earlier. Should be good for temps. Precip shield look much improved for the western folks. Good run incoming. 

At h5 the ns was much less pronounced.  I suppose that let the precip expand.  Losing the Ohio valley low didn't hurt either.

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21 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Completely agree.

I think it would be reasonable to forecast anything between 4-14" in Fairfax for this thing. There's a realistic chance for a big, hard-hitting event, but just as much for a wet failure.

Alright, who's stalking who...great minds think alike :)

" I told a friend yesterday that I expected a range from 5" to 15" in and around D.C. The only change I'll make to that simple thought would be to give a -1 to both extremes...4 to 14 with the mid-range looking good. I'm still not ready to give a specific number for certain locales. "

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, it's glorious.  Cold aloft. Surface hangs around 32, plenty wet.  Nothing to complain about here.

It really is similar in some respects to the euro with progression and track but the deform/shield pushes further west. Euro is very compact. 

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8 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Guys, we tend to follow the same practice with these probs as NHC does with their track forecast -- instead of wild swings W to E or vice-versa from one forecast cycle to the next, you're more likely to see gradual shifts. What if the EC is an anomaly?  I mean, it is east of most EC members and east of the EC mean.  

In situations like these, it's best to not swing from one end of the goalpost to the other..

 Thats why you guys get paid to forecast and we are just weenies. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Tremendous run. I thought the GFS was a little wonky with the NW precip shield a few runs ago but this works very nicely. Good slp track and great to see the ns cave a bit quicker. Nice to see as we get closer in time. Gives us more wiggle room.

This run is the goldilocks scenario.  We walk the line perfectly, manage to get the heavy precip without a warm air intrusion.  Now if it could just not trend in any direction at all for the next 2 days please!

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Lakes low trended substantially east of 12z at 500MB,  somehow the surface depiction is further southwest.   Doesn't make much sense. but I'll take it.

It looks like it got bullied by hp to the north coming in stronger. You could see it as early as hr24. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It really is similar in some respects to the euro with progression and track but the deform/shield pushes further west. Euro is very compact. 

I'm not quite sure we'd want that scenario.  The euro tends to verify better with precip shields, but this gfs is gold!

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