dailylurker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: We need to stop saying it is March... If it comes in over night... Who cares if it is Jan, Feb, or March I had 14" on 11/11/87 during the day. Anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: NAM is a catastrophe...rain into Leesburg. How much qpf though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Don't know...stopped looking when it gave a strung out 1012mb low off Charleston, SC. The interior low goes to Cleveland and ruins everything. Wheels have just about fallen off this event. In under 18 hours nonetheles. I'm sick. At least give it through the 0z cycle to declare it doa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Don't know...stopped looking when it gave a strung out 1012mb low off Charleston, SC. Theven interior low goes to Cleveland and ruins everything. Wheels have just about fallen off this event. In under 18 hours nonetheles. I'm sick. The NAM is almost the exact opposite problem that some of the globals have been suggesting. And its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nam has been pretty darn consistent the last 4-5 cycles with the super soaker qpf amounts along the entire 81 corridor. 850s are right to my southeast. Im assuming sleet soundings however? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: A little dramatic don't ya think It's just the NAM outside of 48 hours...and it doesn't look like the good models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, cae said: Hmm... still a lot of eastern tracks on the 12z GEPS, and now they have some more GEFS friends. yeah this is probably the most alarming graphic I have seen all day. I guess we need to brace ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM takes the surface low from just along or off the SC coast into the Chesapeake Bay between 57-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM stops the bleeding for those of us in the I81 Corridor. I dont know if you can ever really trust it. But we should be close to it's usable time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: A little dramatic don't ya think Especially because the NAM looks nothing like the globals, evolves differently and ends up too warm and inland. Why that should be seen as confirmation of a trend towards colder, less interaction with NS and less precip globals today escapes me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Every other model is off the coast and NAM is practically in the Bay. Maybe it sees something other models will pick up later, but it's a significant outlier at the moment and outside of its generally useful range. I'm not exactly looking for a bridge to jump off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Its the NAM. Posts without adding to anything will get dumped. Chill out everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The 4km NAM doesn't look like the 12km. The SS is more SE and the NS is further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, H2O said: Its the NAM. Posts without adding to anything will get dumped. Chill out everyone Any chance it may have the right evolution with the precipitation field in the west or is it just that bad? Ive seen it perform horrendous and other times score improbable coups, so im just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Any chance it may have the right evolution with the precipitation field in the west or is it just that bad? Ive seen it perform horrendous and other times score improbable coups, so im just curious. It could. But the NAM is usually way overampd at this time frame. When it's on it's own, that's a red flag. Just think back to the times when every other model is out to sea and it's usually the NAM giving us hope and then it caves inside like 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, EB89 said: Surprising looking snow map for the I-95 and DC areas. I would have expected much less looking at the precip type and thermals, it looked like nearly all rain through sometime after 03Z, then the DC metro looks on the border of heavy snow/rain around 06Z, then the precip blows by and is gone shortly thereafter (by 09Z). Must drop all that in literally a 3 hour period or so, if that map is even close to realistic. 2-m temperatures are just above freezing through about 06Z, though they're crashing by that point it appears. 850 temperatures mirror that, crashing below 0C around 06Z after the zero line is well north and west of DC metro before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The 4km NAM doesn't look like the 12km. The SS is more SE and the NS is further SE Yes, big difference for the cities through 6z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Again it's the NAM. We want it to be super juiced up and north/west at this range. If it wasn't I'd be worried. Hopefully the NAM and globals compromise which would be ideal. Sorry I was being a deb earlier. That's what happens when I don't have my morning coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: It could. But the NAM is usually way overampd at this time frame. When it's on it's own, that's a red flag. Just think back to the times when every other model is out to sea and it's usually the NAM giving us hope and then it caves inside like 36 hours. True haha miss the ETA days. Looking at the h5 charts early on anyway around hr 45 you could tell it was going to be amped again. It has that look in our southeast flow events where we either get heavy rains in summer or heavy snow setup when its cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It could. But the NAM is usually way overampd at this time frame. When it's on it's own, that's a red flag. Just think back to the times when every other model is out to sea and it's usually the NAM giving us hope and then it caves inside like 36 hours. But the strange thing is, the total precipitation amounts are not all that extreme from what I can see. The precip shield is far more expansive (no surprise!) compared to the GFS and Euro. Amounts are higher than GFS/Euro, ~0.75-1.00" near the Blue Ridge in VA and ~1.00-1.25" farther east and much of MD and more toward the Bay (that's a very broad description, there are "fingers" of higher/lower amounts through the area, but everyone is encompassed in the >0.75" contour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: But the strange thing is, the total precipitation amounts are not all that extreme from what I can see. The precip shield is far more expansive (no surprise!) compared to the GFS and Euro. Amounts are higher than GFS/Euro, ~0.75-1.00" near the Blue Ridge in VA and ~1.00-1.25" farther east and much of MD and more toward the Bay (that's a very broad description, there are "fingers" of higher/lower amounts through the area, but everyone is encompassed in the >0.75" contour). The euro ensembles actually had a mean of .75-1.00 back to the blue ridge as well so maybe the nams interpretation is not that far off. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: But the strange thing is, the total precipitation amounts are not all that extreme from what I can see. The precip shield is far more expansive (no surprise!) compared to the GFS and Euro. Amounts are higher than GFS/Euro, ~0.75-1.00" near the Blue Ridge in VA and ~1.00-1.25" farther east and much of MD and more toward the Bay (that's a very broad description, there are "fingers" of higher/lower amounts through the area, but everyone is encompassed in the >0.75" contour). looking at precip, its basically wrapping up w/ notable dry slot at 60-63. 12z kept us going out to 66. Thats part of the drop in precip totals. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: The euro ensembles actually had a mean of .75-1.00 back to the blue ridge as well so maybe the nams interpretation is not that far off. Hmm... Was it that much on the 12Z EPS mean? The image that Deck Pic posted earlier showed the 0.50-0.75" contour extending north-south through about the middle part of VA...with less in the western part of the state and increasing amounts east of there. I-95 area was in the 0.75-1.00 region. But of course, temperatures were colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at precip, its basically wrapping up w/ notable dry slot at 60-63. 12z kept us going out to 66. Thats part of the drop in precip totals. Nut Yeah, the precip has literally blown town by 09Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 22 minutes ago, EB89 said: That map matches WPC maps almost exactly. Draw your own conclusions. Mine is that the Euro is being almost totally discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Was it that much on the 12Z EPS mean? The image that Deck Pic posted earlier showed the 0.50-0.75" contour extending north-south through about the middle part of VA...with less in the western part of the state and increasing amounts east of there. I-95 area was in the 0.75-1.00 region. But of course, temperatures were colder. I could of been mistaken but I couldve sworn i saw the tip of the .75-1.00 touchinf back toward my area. I did look at it pretty quickly, however I did look at the same pic you are referencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 That NAM still gives me 6-7" in Gaithersburg, and it's the NAM, so I know it's a low outlier. My mark for this has always been 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That map matches WPC maps almost exactly. Draw your own conclusions. Mine is that the Euro is being almost totally discounted. You think the WPC is discounting the Euro and rolling with the NAM - the only model I've seen that shows this solution? wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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