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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't know...stopped looking when it gave a strung out 1012mb low off Charleston, SC.  The interior low goes to Cleveland and ruins everything.  Wheels have just about fallen off this event.  In under 18 hours nonetheles. I'm sick.

At least give it through the 0z cycle to declare it doa.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't know...stopped looking when it gave a strung out 1012mb low off Charleston, SC.  Theven interior low goes to Cleveland and ruins everything.  Wheels have just about fallen off this event.  In under 18 hours nonetheles. I'm sick.

The NAM is almost the exact opposite problem that some of the globals have been suggesting. 

And its the NAM.

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9 minutes ago, cae said:

Hmm... still a lot of eastern tracks on the 12z GEPS, and now they have some more GEFS friends.

jD4996I.png

yeah this is probably the most alarming graphic I have seen all day. I guess we need to brace ourselves

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

A little dramatic don't ya think 

Especially because the NAM looks nothing like the globals, evolves differently and ends up too warm and inland. 

Why that should be seen as confirmation of a trend towards colder, less interaction with NS and less precip globals today escapes me...

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Every other model is off the coast and NAM is practically in the Bay. Maybe it sees something other models will pick up later, but it's a significant outlier at the moment and outside of its generally useful range. I'm not exactly looking for a bridge to jump off of.

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Just now, H2O said:

Its the NAM.  Posts without adding to anything will get dumped.  Chill out everyone

Any chance it may have the right evolution with the precipitation field in the west or is it just that bad? Ive seen it perform horrendous and other times score improbable coups, so im just curious.

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Any chance it may have the right evolution with the precipitation field in the west or is it just that bad? Ive seen it perform horrendous and other times score improbable coups, so im just curious.

It could.  But the NAM is usually way overampd at this time frame.  When it's on it's own, that's a red flag.   Just think back to the times when every other model is out to sea and it's usually the NAM giving us hope and then it caves inside like 36 hours.  

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2 minutes ago, EB89 said:

1F2C9CA4-10B7-4D07-89F4-822DA951C425-1607-00000165539123E4_tmp.png

Surprising looking snow map for the I-95 and DC areas.  I would have expected much less looking at the precip type and thermals, it looked like nearly all rain through sometime after 03Z, then the DC metro looks on the border of heavy snow/rain around 06Z, then the precip blows by and is gone shortly thereafter (by 09Z).  Must drop all that in literally a 3 hour period or so, if that map is even close to realistic.  2-m temperatures are just above freezing through about 06Z, though they're crashing by that point it appears.  850 temperatures mirror that, crashing below 0C around 06Z after the zero line is well north and west of DC metro before then.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

It could.  But the NAM is usually way overampd at this time frame.  When it's on it's own, that's a red flag.   Just think back to the times when every other model is out to sea and it's usually the NAM giving us hope and then it caves inside like 36 hours.  

True haha miss the ETA days. Looking at the h5 charts early on anyway around hr 45 you could tell it was going to be amped again. It has that look in our southeast flow events where we either get heavy rains in summer or heavy snow setup when its cold enough.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It could.  But the NAM is usually way overampd at this time frame.  When it's on it's own, that's a red flag.   Just think back to the times when every other model is out to sea and it's usually the NAM giving us hope and then it caves inside like 36 hours.  

But the strange thing is, the total precipitation amounts are not all that extreme from what I can see.  The precip shield is far more expansive (no surprise!) compared to the GFS and Euro.  Amounts are higher than GFS/Euro, ~0.75-1.00" near the Blue Ridge in VA and ~1.00-1.25" farther east and much of MD and more toward the Bay (that's a very broad description, there are "fingers" of higher/lower amounts through the area, but everyone is encompassed in the >0.75" contour).

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

But the strange thing is, the total precipitation amounts are not all that extreme from what I can see.  The precip shield is far more expansive (no surprise!) compared to the GFS and Euro.  Amounts are higher than GFS/Euro, ~0.75-1.00" near the Blue Ridge in VA and ~1.00-1.25" farther east and much of MD and more toward the Bay (that's a very broad description, there are "fingers" of higher/lower amounts through the area, but everyone is encompassed in the >0.75" contour).

The euro ensembles actually had a mean of .75-1.00 back to the blue ridge as well so maybe the nams interpretation is not that far off. Hmm...

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

But the strange thing is, the total precipitation amounts are not all that extreme from what I can see.  The precip shield is far more expansive (no surprise!) compared to the GFS and Euro.  Amounts are higher than GFS/Euro, ~0.75-1.00" near the Blue Ridge in VA and ~1.00-1.25" farther east and much of MD and more toward the Bay (that's a very broad description, there are "fingers" of higher/lower amounts through the area, but everyone is encompassed in the >0.75" contour).

looking at precip, its basically wrapping up w/ notable dry slot at 60-63. 12z kept us going out to 66. Thats part of the drop in precip totals.

Nut

 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The euro ensembles actually had a mean of .75-1.00 back to the blue ridge as well so maybe the nams interpretation is not that far off. Hmm...

Was it that much on the 12Z EPS mean?  The image that Deck Pic posted earlier showed the 0.50-0.75" contour extending north-south through about the middle part of VA...with less in the western part of the state and increasing amounts east of there.  I-95 area was in the 0.75-1.00 region.  But of course, temperatures were colder.

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Was it that much on the 12Z EPS mean?  The image that Deck Pic posted earlier showed the 0.50-0.75" contour extending north-south through about the middle part of VA...with less in the western part of the state and increasing amounts east of there.  I-95 area was in the 0.75-1.00 region.  But of course, temperatures were colder.

I could of been mistaken but I couldve sworn i saw the tip of the .75-1.00 touchinf back toward my area. I did look at it pretty quickly, however I did look at the same pic you are referencing.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That map matches WPC maps almost exactly.  Draw your own conclusions.  Mine is that the Euro is being almost totally discounted.

You think the WPC is discounting the Euro and rolling with the NAM - the only model I've seen that shows this solution?

wut?

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