psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 42 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Everyone wants the setup that maximizes the potential in their backyard. And this storm is no different. Ideally we'd like to see everyone happy. I like everyone here, and it would be cool if we all got smoked. But just like most of us, I am laser-focused on my backyard. Your right I'm not hating. But I feel like there is a narrative with some that the cities need a less amped east solution. I'm not buying that. I do think there is a path to everyone winning with the solutions from yesterday. But if it's weaker then it's a smaller win zone and someone is gonna lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 EPS mean definitely looks better. Would probably be close to 6 inches out this way if the ratio's were decent. I would take that in a heartbeat. Looks excellent for you guys to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Quick question? When would Winter Storm Watches come out? Assuming Early Morning Package, (as long as majority of models snow good snows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: That qpf doesn't look all that much higher being west of the op... I'm not complaining, just an obs Don't pay attention to the smoothed out QPF. Look at the orientation. Philly gets twice as much QPF as the OP. As much as we would all like Philly to get screwed, we want to see a plume of moisture being pushed up into Lancaster/York/Reading...The tilt and progression on the OP was a bit scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Very subtle shift @ h5 and evolution would push the precip shield west no problem. It's very compact as is and now the eastern outlier. Seems like breathing room moreso than a disaster. If this was 12z tomorrow I would feel different but all of us are very much in the game for a good storm. 1 hour ago, Ian said: I think overall there still hasn't been a proper appreciation of the fragility in these kinds of setups. The 12z Euro is certainly a step backward but the run is nearly identical to 0z in evolution. Lead wave is a bit weaker.. ULL is slightly east. With 48+ still to go you could have trends like that run to run cause huge problems in the expectations game through now. I agree. Even as the big picture comes into focus, there's still a good amount of uncertainty as to how this plays out on the surface. We can see that in the spread in the ops, even in run-to-run variations in the Euro at fairly close range. It's been said before in this thread, but the ensembles are probably going to be unusually useful at close range for this event. At close range they will often just show what the ops are showing, but if there's a difference between the ops and the ensemble means then the ensembles shouldn't be ignored, even if it's close to game time. Unfortunately we mostly have to rely on the global ensembles (and the "ensemble of globals"), as the SREFs aren't very useful and the RGEM ensemble is an elusive and mysterious beast. But at least now we're getting into range when there are some sightings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Matt, can you post the 0z mean for comparison? Wxbell is slow so I don't have today's yet to do a side by side. 13 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: So we're trading just about one shade of blue for a much better surface. I'm ok with that. This is shaping up to be a solid 3-6 or 4-8 event for DC with potential upside beyond that still. Very nice day of runs. I was worried by this time of the day we'd be looking at 2 inches of snow to heavy rain to dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looking at the members, it looks ok but a notable step back from 0z in QPF. Track seems fairly tight and the op is the eastern outlier of the ens run. The biggest notable shift is the SW extent. Big drop there in both qpf and snowfall. This is an indication of both a weaker storm and a slower development. But it's to be expected @ 72 hours leads because the ens aren't going to have large numbers with large deviations. The euro suite in general made a decisive move away from the big QPF bomb idea. Which isn't fun but isn't shocking either. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, BTRWx said: That what-if wouldn't be so simple. The whole flow would change and if it were to be the same the only difference I can see would be the sun. exactly... The key factor is this comes in at night. Maybe the strong March moon angle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'd still like the big qpf bomb, but I have to say upper 20's to low 30's and over an inch of qpf on the Euro mean sounds pretty great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 We need the NAM to run and jack all the QPF back up, although that would probably mean it came too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: Quick question? When would Winter Storm Watches come out? Assuming Early Morning Package, (as long as majority of models snow good snows). My guess would be tomorrow afternoon if they are warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: So we're trading just about one shade of blue for a much better surface. I'm ok with that. This is shaping up to be a solid 3-6 or 4-8 event for DC with potential upside beyond that still. Very nice day of runs. I was worried by this time of the day we'd be looking at 2 inches of snow to heavy rain to dry slot. Here is the Euro OP from last night (Top) and Today (Bottom) at 8 am Tuesday Morning. I realize this might not benefit everyone in the forum, but yes..I am pleased with the east/colder/drier trend. For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Since we are all throwing models out there, the RPM (LOL) looks great. 12-16 across the entire area with isolated amounts to 20. Tony Pann said it was pretty poor with the past few storms (no surprise there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The placement of low pressure at 12z Tuesday is almost identical on the three major models. Just off the Delmarva Coast. We have near perfect agreement at 72 hours out. And that track is basically benchmark for big snows around here. The inland GFS solutions seemed to have given way to the Euro and CMC track. The problem that I am seeing however is that we are not seeing the firehose of moisture coming up from our south like we saw in the previous GFS runs. So we trade off... little drier.. better surface. I will take it. But it has to hold now. Any dryer.. any further OTS and we are toast. The GFS para is straight up doomsday. We gotta come together in solidarity and keep this thing right where it is... then let it trend wetter as we close in on game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: The GFS para is still on leave. About to say, that's from 00z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, PDIII said: The GFS para is straight up doomsday. Is there a more recent run than weds available somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, schinz said: It's only "fake" after the storm is over and doesn't verify...until then it is their forecast...to which we can agree or disagree with. However, I always find it amusing that some seem to "know" someone else's forecast is wrong. Do you have a forecast map out I can compare theirs with? Qpf doesn't come close to 2" and it's March. Those numbers have less than 1% chance to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Qpf doesn't come close to 2" and it's March. Those numbers have less than 1% chance to verify. We need to stop saying it is March... If it comes in over night... Who cares if it is Jan, Feb, or March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 DTs snow maps from the model runs look different than here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: We need to stop saying it is March... If it comes in over night... Who cares if it is Jan, Feb, or March That matters any month. It's tough to get any big storms accumulate solely overnight. One notable exception was January 2011 when snow fell for less than 6 hours with consistent high rates from start to finish after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: I wouldn't say impossible just yet. A small shift in a booming low could come close, but it's definitely a wide extreme anomaly. I'm curious if the long-time pros agree with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I wouldn't say impossible just yet. A small shift in a booming low could come close, but it's definitely a wide extreme anomaly. Certainly not impossible, but 3 days out and given the current modeling and trends, that's highly irresponsible. And I'm admittedly an amateur who roots for snow and probably lets it affect my objectivity at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I think that is my whole point...we are still many model runs away from from show time. A lot can change. It's a little early to be calling people wrong. And, BTW, I have lived in Westminster for 40 years and have been around these board long enough to know that the wind changes, so to speak, with the whim of every model run. Very little forecasting done here. There is a lot of good analysis though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I think this map looks really good for now. ETA: only thing that maybe doesn't make sense is Baltimore less than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Slightly more stream interaction with 18z nam at 45? The ns is more southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I think this map looks really good for now. ETA: only thing that maybe doesn't make sense is Baltimore less than DC. Looks good to me, and reasonable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hmm... still a lot of eastern tracks on the 12z GEPS, and now they have some more GEFS friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Aren't we technically closer to D2 on this now than D3? For start time around DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: Aren't we technically closer to D2 on this now than D3? For start time around DC... 2.5 (it matters none) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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