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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don't say I didn't tell you.  I cant quote it because it's in a locked med/long range thread but this is exactly what I posted.  The upper levels on this thing aren't anywhere close to what they were two days ago, and the southern trough isn't digging anywhere near as deep as it was just yesterday.  This is the seasonal trend.  Energy ends up way weaker than modeled.  I suspect the weakening trend continues, unless perhaps once the energy is onshore it is stronger than being modeled.

Remember when "triple phase" was being thrown out there.

The next time somebody from the Shenandoah valley tells people how a storm fails out here, maybe they won't scoff.  We might not be able to forecast for the cities but we can damn sure do it out here.  At this point we'd probably be better off hoping the Tn valley low is as strong as possible and hope we get a thump on the front end.

Lol.

Agree 100%. You know my thoughts on these type of events. Been talking about it for days.

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah I don't see why we'd get 5:1 or less at night with decent column and temps. 

Tell that to the "trained FAA spotter" at DCA who loses the snow board and measures what's left of the compacted accumulation. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It's not much the pattern evolution that was simulated 24-36 hours ago. Could very well see precipitation trends continue lowering in the guidance. 

What about the other way?  WPC and lwx both have sounded bullish, haven't they?

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I have posted reasoning for days haven't you been reading? 



As a red tagger, it should be expected people will ask you for your input. Some may not read this thread all the time, so perhaps you could be a bit more respectful when asked your professional opinion instead of being rude.


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3/15/14 the high was 70.  3/16/14, the low was 40 and the high was 48.  When the precip started I was 42/24.  about 8 hours later I was 25 with +SN piling up on major arteries.  All I care about is the storm itself.  Antecedent conditions this weekend are not hostile to accumulations at all.

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2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

I like your thoughts on how accumulations would differ with this set up in January or February?

That what-if wouldn't be so simple.  The whole flow would change and if it were to be the same the only difference I can see would be the sun.

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17 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

I randomly came across this among my hundreds of other browser tabs.  It looks favorable to me for most of us considering the east based ops.

 

wpc 8 inches plus.jpg

This is the old outlook...based from the overnight guidance. 

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3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro.  

 

25lwrEq.png

That qpf doesn't look all that much higher being west of the op...

I'm not complaining, just an obs

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Just now, HighStakes said:

That's pretty solid. I think we all would sign up for that. 

for sure.  I don't have the members yet, but the orientation of the precip is better.  The low doesn't get shunted east as dramatically as the OP.  It's colder than the OP.  And it drives decent moisture well to the north and west of the OP.

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

for sure.  I don't have the members yet, but the orientation of the precip is better.  The low doesn't get shunted east as dramatically as the OP.  It's colder than the OP.  And it drives decent moisture well to the north and west of the OP.

Yes, this is exactly what we should take from the mean... we will find out how many members smash us in a little bit 

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6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro.  

 

 

Where do I sign on the dotted line? Quick dump of ~1" QPF mostly overnight and below freezing column. I could care less that it's not a 2" QPF bomb if we can get this scenario. 

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