clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Don't say I didn't tell you. I cant quote it because it's in a locked med/long range thread but this is exactly what I posted. The upper levels on this thing aren't anywhere close to what they were two days ago, and the southern trough isn't digging anywhere near as deep as it was just yesterday. This is the seasonal trend. Energy ends up way weaker than modeled. I suspect the weakening trend continues, unless perhaps once the energy is onshore it is stronger than being modeled. Remember when "triple phase" was being thrown out there. The next time somebody from the Shenandoah valley tells people how a storm fails out here, maybe they won't scoff. We might not be able to forecast for the cities but we can damn sure do it out here. At this point we'd probably be better off hoping the Tn valley low is as strong as possible and hope we get a thump on the front end. Lol. Agree 100%. You know my thoughts on these type of events. Been talking about it for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I randomly came across this among my hundreds of other browser tabs. It looks favorable to me for most of us considering the east based ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's not much the pattern evolution that was simulated 24-36 hours ago. Could very well see precipitation trends continue lowering in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I have posted reasoning for days haven't you been reading? You saying no chance then getting on board and now the poo pooing....kinda makes people question I think. Would have been better to just stick with no chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I don't see why we'd get 5:1 or less at night with decent column and temps. Tell that to the "trained FAA spotter" at DCA who loses the snow board and measures what's left of the compacted accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: It's not much the pattern evolution that was simulated 24-36 hours ago. Could very well see precipitation trends continue lowering in the guidance. What about the other way? WPC and lwx both have sounded bullish, haven't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: It's not much the pattern evolution that was simulated 24-36 hours ago. Could very well see precipitation trends continue lowering in the guidance. Or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I have posted reasoning for days haven't you been reading? As a red tagger, it should be expected people will ask you for your input. Some may not read this thread all the time, so perhaps you could be a bit more respectful when asked your professional opinion instead of being rude. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I randomly came across this among my hundreds of other browser tabs. It looks favorable to me for most of us considering the east based ops. That looks pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I randomly came across this among my hundreds of other browser tabs. It looks favorable to me for most of us considering the east based ops. Except for the fact that it was issued at 3:30 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Except for the fact that it was issued at 3:30 this morning. Yes... it will be updated in an hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3/15/14 the high was 70. 3/16/14, the low was 40 and the high was 48. When the precip started I was 42/24. about 8 hours later I was 25 with +SN piling up on major arteries. All I care about is the storm itself. Antecedent conditions this weekend are not hostile to accumulations at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 23 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: You'd be lucky to see 1/2 of that as accumulated snow. I like your thoughts on how accumulations would differ with this set up in January or February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 EPS out to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: I like your thoughts on how accumulations would differ with this set up in January or February? That what-if wouldn't be so simple. The whole flow would change and if it were to be the same the only difference I can see would be the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I randomly came across this among my hundreds of other browser tabs. It looks favorable to me for most of us considering the east based ops. This is the old outlook...based from the overnight guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WxMan1 said: This is the old outlook...based from the overnight guidance. It will be updated in about an hour or so... so we shall see what it shows then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ok, knock off the damn fighting. it will all get deleted. Take it to banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes... it will be updated in an hour or so I usually look at those because they are made by pros but with the guidance so far today I'm thinking the next one will be much farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro. That's pretty solid. I think we all would sign up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro. Excellent run then... thanks for sharing... upper 20s would be nice to have as it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro. Well, at least a sliver of hope out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro. That qpf doesn't look all that much higher being west of the op... I'm not complaining, just an obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Matt, can you post the 0z mean for comparison? Wxbell is slow so I don't have today's yet to do a side by side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The model with the best verification score is deep in its most accurate wheelhouse with a potent low pressure system located at a historically favorable location for classic (dare we say K-U) nor-easter snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, HighStakes said: That's pretty solid. I think we all would sign up for that. for sure. I don't have the members yet, but the orientation of the precip is better. The low doesn't get shunted east as dramatically as the OP. It's colder than the OP. And it drives decent moisture well to the north and west of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: That qpf doesn't look all that much higher being west of the op... This is a real fast mover. Thats a lot of qpf. For a 10 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: for sure. I don't have the members yet, but the orientation of the precip is better. The low doesn't get shunted east as dramatically as the OP. It's colder than the OP. And it drives decent moisture well to the north and west of the OP. Yes, this is exactly what we should take from the mean... we will find out how many members smash us in a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro. Where do I sign on the dotted line? Quick dump of ~1" QPF mostly overnight and below freezing column. I could care less that it's not a 2" QPF bomb if we can get this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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