Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Here's the surface @ 6z and 12z tuesday. Big improvement from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Do you all think there will be virga at onset? Not sure how to tell how dry the column would be. Learning a lot from everyone, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Vast majority of that along and east of 95 will not accumulate those numbers. With most of the precip happening before 8am and temps right around 32, why do you say that? Honest question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the surface @ 6z and 12z tuesday. Big improvement from last night Improvement where? It looks more like verification to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Probably not, maybe more like 4-8" rather than 10+. 4-8 is generous imo. 2-5 more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Here's the 850's @ 12z. My guess would be isothermal with a CCB ripping like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 4-8 is generous imo. 2-5 more so. I disagree. When an inch of QPF as snow is in the cards, it would probably take temps above 34 to get such low accumulation. Surface temps look to be around 33-34 in the coastal plain following an antecedent cold air mass. I think 4-8" is reasonable with 1" QPF as snow, unless you think the QPF is overdone or there's mixing that wxbell depicts as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Improvement where? It looks more like verification to me! ? 0z euro had the surface freezing line was all the way out to FDK @ 12z on tues. I'm not sure what you're even saying/asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Bernie talked in his video yesterday about the concern about the ULL being so far west. I wonder if it's acting more as a kicker now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: With most of the precip happening before 8am and temps right around 32, why do you say that? Honest question... That heavy slug of QPF from the waa thump is getting weaker by the run and without rates I just don't see how it can really stick pile. Not a true setup for prolonged heavy snow banding. It may be at freezing with temps but it's still mid March. Ground a bit warmer than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very subtle shift @ h5 and evolution would push the precip shield west no problem. It's very compact as is and now the eastern outlier. Seems like breathing room moreso than a disaster. If this was 12z tomorrow I would feel different but all of us are very much in the game for a good storm. I think we're rooting for very different things. If you want a safe path to 4-8" in DC this would be acceptable. But if your rooting for a truly historic dynamic system like yesterday's guidance was all spitting out a lot of today's guidance was disappointing. Its not panic time. The threat is still there and this could still break our way but yesterday every run was crushing me with 1.5 qpf plus and today a lot of the models have diverged towards a much more modest event. If we had come from nothing to what we see now I'd probably be happy but I won't lie when everything was showing 15-25" her yesterday a consensus of 6-10 (if that on the euro) is a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: That heavy slug of QPF from the waa thump is getting weaker by the run and without rates I just don't see how it can really stick pile. Not a true setup for prolonged heavy snow banding. It may be at freezing with temps but it's still mid March. Ground a bit warmer than you think. Overnight timing and antecedent cold temps - I think you're selling those short. But I do agree a decent amount with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: That heavy slug of QPF from the waa thump is getting weaker by the run and without rates I just don't see how it can really stick pile. Not a true setup for prolonged heavy snow banding. It may be at freezing with temps but it's still mid March. Ground a bit warmer than you think. ? DCA gets .8" between 6z and 12z Tuesday. Thats 1" per hour rates at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the surface @ 6z and 12z tuesday. Big improvement from last night 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: That heavy slug of QPF from the waa thump is getting weaker by the run and without rates I just don't see how it can really stick pile. Not a true setup for prolonged heavy snow banding. It may be at freezing with temps but it's still mid March. Ground a bit warmer than you think. It falls in the dead of night after 3 nights in a row with subfreezing lows? I get what you're saying but not sure I follow the logic. If areas east of 95 get 1"+ liquid in 6 hours (6z-12z) that falls as snow it's going to pile up. 5-8:1 ratios but still pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we're rooting for very different things. If you want a safe path to 4-8" in DC this would be acceptable. But if your rooting for a truly historic dynamic system like yesterday's guidance was all spitting out a lot of today's guidance was disappointing. Its not panic time. The threat is still there and this could still break our way but yesterday every run was crushing me with 1.5 qpf plus and today a lot of the models have diverged towards a much more modest event. If we had come from nothing to what we see now I'd probably be happy but I won't lie when everything was showing 15-25" her yesterday a consensus of 6-10 (if that on the euro) is a disappointment. Yeah I agree with all of this. Nothing more to really add LOL. Let's hope HH NAM and GFS treat us well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'll stop with this panel 6z-12z qpf). That's a major slug east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It falls in the dead of night after 3 nights in a row with subfreezing lows? I get what you're saying but not sure I follow the logic. If areas east of 95 get 1"+ liquid in 6 hours (6z-12z) I'd be concerned if the WAA thump keeps getting weaker.. it's about as weak as we'd want it now. This is a quick hitter overall. But I kinda doubt it won't stick at 33/34 given antecedent conditions and night and rates etc. 10:1 is not realistic in those kinds of areas tho of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Even with less QPF - Dulles will record approx. double snowfall as DCA. IMHO. That being said, as long as DCA can be in the 4-6" range I am happy. Show me where to sign for 5" along the Potomac right now. If that's the case, places from Manassas to Tyson's to Rockville should be 6-8 easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we're rooting for very different things. If you want a safe path to 4-8" in DC this would be acceptable. But if your rooting for a truly historic dynamic system like yesterday's guidance was all spitting out a lot of today's guidance was disappointing. Its not panic time. The threat is still there and this could still break our way but yesterday every run was crushing me with 1.5 qpf plus and today a lot of the models have diverged towards a much more modest event. If we had come from nothing to what we see now I'd probably be happy but I won't lie when everything was showing 15-25" her yesterday a consensus of 6-10 (if that on the euro) is a disappointment. I'm rooting for the biggest storm possible. But I have to consider what each op run means for my yard regardless. I haven't even had 1" of snow out of a single event and have failed completely all year. I'm not going to whine and say I think the euro sucks because in reality it's still a great march event for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we're rooting for very different things. If you want a safe path to 4-8" in DC this would be acceptable. But if your rooting for a truly historic dynamic system like yesterday's guidance was all spitting out a lot of today's guidance was disappointing. Its not panic time. The threat is still there and this could still break our way but yesterday every run was crushing me with 1.5 qpf plus and today a lot of the models have diverged towards a much more modest event. If we had come from nothing to what we see now I'd probably be happy but I won't lie when everything was showing 15-25" her yesterday a consensus of 6-10 (if that on the euro) is a disappointment. Modest is an understatement for some of us. I get more from some streamers than the 12Z Euro run...Sarcasm obviously. But it is disheartening after what we were seeing yesterday. A couple of inches in mid March is worthless really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we're rooting for very different things. If you want a safe path to 4-8" in DC this would be acceptable. But if your rooting for a truly historic dynamic system like yesterday's guidance was all spitting out a lot of today's guidance was disappointing. Its not panic time. The threat is still there and this could still break our way but yesterday every run was crushing me with 1.5 qpf plus and today a lot of the models have diverged towards a much more modest event. If we had come from nothing to what we see now I'd probably be happy but I won't lie when everything was showing 15-25" her yesterday a consensus of 6-10 (if that on the euro) is a disappointment. Everyone wants the setup that maximizes the potential in their backyard. And this storm is no different. Ideally we'd like to see everyone happy. I like everyone here, and it would be cool if we all got smoked. But just like most of us, I am laser-focused on my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, snjókoma said: ? DCA gets .8" between 6z and 12z Tuesday. Thats 1" per hour rates at least. You'd be lucky to see 1/2 of that as accumulated snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: You'd be lucky to see 1/2 of that as accumulated snow. can i ask why? sfc temps are 32-33 here, and midlevels are close but seem to be all or mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm rooting for the biggest storm possible. But I have to consider what each op run means for my yard regardless. I haven't even had 1" of snow out of a single event and have failed completely all year. I'm not going to whine and say I think the euro sucks because in reality it's still a great march event for me. I'm not sure what I make of this storm now. We're still over 2 full days from the first flakes so we have quite a few model runs to go through. This has really turned into a quick event. I guess at this point I'm rooting for a colder version of February 87. Get thumped for 10 hours and pick up a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It falls in the dead of night after 3 nights in a row with subfreezing lows? I get what you're saying but not sure I follow the logic. If areas east of 95 get 1"+ liquid in 6 hours (6z-12z) that falls as snow it's going to pile up. 5-8:1 ratios but still pile up. Yeah, it's certainly more than 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: can i ask why? sfc temps are 32-33 here, and midlevels are close but seem to be all or mostly snow. I have posted reasoning for days haven't you been reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Modest is an understatement for some of us. I get more from some streamers than the 12Z Euro run...Sarcasm obviously. But it is disheartening after what we were seeing yesterday. A couple of inches in mid March is worthless really. Don't say I didn't tell you. I cant quote it because it's in a locked med/long range thread but this is exactly what I posted on Wednesday. The upper levels on this thing aren't anywhere close to what they were two days ago, and the southern trough isn't digging anywhere near as deep as it was just yesterday. This is the seasonal trend. Energy ends up way weaker than modeled. I suspect the weakening trend continues, unless perhaps once the energy is onshore it is stronger than being modeled. Remember when "triple phase" was being thrown out there. The next time somebody from the Shenandoah valley tells people how a storm fails out here, maybe they won't scoff. We might not be able to forecast for the cities but we can damn sure do it out here. At this point we'd probably be better off hoping the Tn valley low is as strong as possible and hope we get a thump on the front end. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: ? 0z euro had the surface freezing line was all the way out to FDK @ 12z on tues. I'm not sure what you're even saying/asking. My apology. I read that wrong. I didn't realize those maps were from the same run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's certainly more than 2-5" Yeah I don't see why we'd get 5:1 or less at night with decent column and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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