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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

6z and 12z gefs qpf mean for comparison. Keep in mind the GEFS follows the op pretty close at this lead so the reduction on the means is totally expected. If 18z gfs comes in wetter then so will the gefs. 

Uar5Cx.jpg

 

vHbRCz.jpg

This shows exactly what I was talking about last night after the 00Z GFS and 00Z Euro model runs.  This is trending to a PHL-NE special, the way almost all Miller Bs go.  That SW cutoff will keep advancing north and east with each successive model run as it figures out the details.  Seen this so many times.  

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1 minute ago, Swiscaster said:

This shows exactly what I was talking about last night after the 00Z GFS and 00Z Euro model runs.  This is trending to a PHL-NE special, the way almost all Miller Bs go.  That SW cutoff will keep advancing north and east with each successive model run as it figures out the details.  Seen this so many times.  

Perhaps you should check the latest Euro.

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Very subtle shift @ h5 and evolution would push the precip shield west no problem. It's very compact as is and now the eastern outlier. Seems like breathing room moreso than a disaster. If this was 12z tomorrow I would feel different but all of us are very much in the game for a good storm. 

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Eurowx algarithms very low

DC: 3 - 6
Leesburg 6 - 8
Higher elevations/west: 8-10
Mid-Maryland and north - Pummeled

I do not have WxBell

 


 

That's an outstanding mid march event here.  I'd take that and run.  Hope it holds.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very subtle shift @ h5 and evolution would push the precip shield west no problem. It's very compact as is and now the eastern outlier. Seems like breathing room moreso than a disaster. If this was 12z tomorrow I would feel different but all of us are very much in the game for a good storm. 

I hate flirting with wide right, but I'd take it.  For me and you this is close to ideal IF it came to fruition as depicted.  CCB dumps on us for 8-9 hours, and we're done.  I'm not particularly interested in a prolonged event where I am white rain and 35.  

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I think overall there still hasn't been a proper appreciation of the fragility in these kinds of setups. The 12z Euro is certainly a step backward but the run is nearly identical to 0z in evolution. Lead wave is a bit weaker.. ULL is slightly east. With 48+ still to go you could have trends like that run to run cause huge problems in the expectations game through now. 

Otherwise.. still a good track, not that much different than 0z at the sfc as far as that goes. The fall line is a pain.. especially in MArch. 

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A pretty good run, all things considered. Of course I'd like a little more IMBY but it will only take a slight change to make this better for more people, especially out west.

My biggest concern was a Miller B that developed just too late for us. Doesn't look like that's happening for now, so that's good.

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I hate flirting with wide right, but I'd take it.  For me and you this is close to ideal IF it came to fruition as depicted.  CCB dumps on us for 8-9 hours, and we're done.  I'm not particularly interested in a prolonged event where I am white rain and 35.  

Significant improvement with the surface in both our yards. I'm at or below freezing the whole time and you are 33 at the worst. If it gets below freezing at onset then it would likely stay that way until rates lighten up. I'm not mad at the run after getting the sinking rainstorm feeling last night. 

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