Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 lol..40N gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 6z and 12z gefs qpf mean for comparison. Keep in mind the GEFS follows the op pretty close at this lead so the reduction on the means is totally expected. If 18z gfs comes in wetter then so will the gefs. This shows exactly what I was talking about last night after the 00Z GFS and 00Z Euro model runs. This is trending to a PHL-NE special, the way almost all Miller Bs go. That SW cutoff will keep advancing north and east with each successive model run as it figures out the details. Seen this so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017031112/ecmwf_T850_neus_4.png Appear temps are ready to crash per wind streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Seems like a step towards yesterday's CMC, East. Opposite of NAM/GFS amped close-in run. No narrowing of the goalposts this model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Everything shifted east and you could see it by hr48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Precip cut way back... Westminster went from 1.1" to .6", Frederick 1.0" to .6", BWI 1.5 to 1.0, Winchester .9" to .3"... DCA pretty much unchanged though. Thru 18Z Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: lol..40N gets screwed Ugly for the 81 Corridor. a couple of inches. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: lol..40N gets screwed My goodness. Qpf extra meager far west. Unreal how we go from 12z awesomeness yesterday to the models today. DC/BWI NE MD have fun with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 CMC FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Swiscaster said: This shows exactly what I was talking about last night after the 00Z GFS and 00Z Euro model runs. This is trending to a PHL-NE special, the way almost all Miller Bs go. That SW cutoff will keep advancing north and east with each successive model run as it figures out the details. Seen this so many times. Perhaps you should check the latest Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: lol..40N gets screwed Wow that's a huge run for dc. Didn't expect that. Time to lock it but that's a trend towards cold for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Got the Ukie west, Euro east, and Gfs in the middle. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NW screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Very subtle shift @ h5 and evolution would push the precip shield west no problem. It's very compact as is and now the eastern outlier. Seems like breathing room moreso than a disaster. If this was 12z tomorrow I would feel different but all of us are very much in the game for a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: CMC FTW? It started sniffing this potential out and its going to finish it with the last word haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: NW screw job. Snow Map fail. Anne Arundel is never the jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Probably the more accurate map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: NW screw job. With all the talk of the DC screwzone, looks like everyone accept DC gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Eurowx algarithms very low DC: 3 - 6 Leesburg 6 - 8 Higher elevations/west: 8-10 Mid-Maryland and north - Pummeled I do not have WxBell That's an outstanding mid march event here. I'd take that and run. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It would take very little to spread precip west in these 2 panels. Of course I like the run for my yard but I can easily see this go bigger all over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very subtle shift @ h5 and evolution would push the precip shield west no problem. It's very compact as is and now the eastern outlier. Seems like breathing room moreso than a disaster. If this was 12z tomorrow I would feel different but all of us are very much in the game for a good storm. I hate flirting with wide right, but I'd take it. For me and you this is close to ideal IF it came to fruition as depicted. CCB dumps on us for 8-9 hours, and we're done. I'm not particularly interested in a prolonged event where I am white rain and 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I think overall there still hasn't been a proper appreciation of the fragility in these kinds of setups. The 12z Euro is certainly a step backward but the run is nearly identical to 0z in evolution. Lead wave is a bit weaker.. ULL is slightly east. With 48+ still to go you could have trends like that run to run cause huge problems in the expectations game through now. Otherwise.. still a good track, not that much different than 0z at the sfc as far as that goes. The fall line is a pain.. especially in MArch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: That's an outstanding mid march event here. I'd take that and run. Hope it holds. I think I have old images or something.. This is what I saw - This looks too good! EDIT: HAS TO BE AN OLD RUN! See Bob and others for details! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 A pretty good run, all things considered. Of course I'd like a little more IMBY but it will only take a slight change to make this better for more people, especially out west. My biggest concern was a Miller B that developed just too late for us. Doesn't look like that's happening for now, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: NW screw job. Vast majority of that along and east of 95 will not accumulate those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I hate flirting with wide right, but I'd take it. For me and you this is close to ideal IF it came to fruition as depicted. CCB dumps on us for 8-9 hours, and we're done. I'm not particularly interested in a prolonged event where I am white rain and 35. Significant improvement with the surface in both our yards. I'm at or below freezing the whole time and you are 33 at the worst. If it gets below freezing at onset then it would likely stay that way until rates lighten up. I'm not mad at the run after getting the sinking rainstorm feeling last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Vast majority of that along and east of 95 will not accumulate those numbers. Probably not, maybe more like 4-8" rather than 10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I think I have old images or something.. This is what I saw - This looks too good! EDIT: HAS TO BE AN OLD RUN! See Bob and others for details! That's last night run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annapolismike Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: NW screw job. Well that is certainly an improvement I-95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Vast majority of that along and east of 95 will not accumulate those numbers. Wxbell algorithm flawed and its showing here. I agree, north and west of 95 it seems close to reality, but south east, there's just no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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