March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)

Eskimo Joe · March 11, 2017

Wet snow at 32-34 will stick on power lines and trees. Still a win.

WVclimo · March 11, 2017

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It does look pretty warm. But I'd guess it would depend on rates especially NW of the cities. If you're dumping snow at that point it can probably continue to stick at 33 or 34.

Snow accumulated here yesterday for most of the morning with temps between 33-34. And that was after a warm stretch and temps in the 40's all night. If there is snow cover already, and the UKMET's presentation is correct, I see no reason totals wouldn't continue to increase.

nj2va · March 11, 2017

Question for PSU or Bob - is the German ICON model reliable? I think it's pretty new, no?

psuhoffman · March 11, 2017

14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

UK track is perfect but 500 is not. Gradient will be very tight with this. Not favorable for heavy snow expansion into the western territories.

This is my concern. Especially for me up here, can the really heavy banding needed to get the big totals 12+, get out here given the interference the primary seems to be running on developing a healthy Ccb precip shield in the west side of the coastal.

Bob Chill · March 11, 2017

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Question for PSU or Bob - is the German ICON model reliable? I think it's pretty new, no?

It seems to do pretty well in general. Usually follows the herd so that's a good thing (unlike the NAM). It's still JV though. I'll never bet against the euro/ukie/gfs (in that order) at this lead.

osfan24 · March 11, 2017

DWD Icon has a sweet deformation over us. Get the WAA snows and then the deform. That's the winning formula to go big. Of course, it's probably wrong, but I like looking at all of the different developments of each model to compare and study.

Bob Chill · March 11, 2017

I had a pm disco with kurtstack this morning and told him what I was thinking. I figured I'd post it here to go on the record:

For now I would actually say 3-6" for dc and I95 east. 0-4" for areas east and south of 495. 4-8" for balt and burbs. 6-10" for the lucky folks in the northern and NE tiers.

My yard I'm probably in the 3-6/4-8" range. I could see how I could get more than 8" but it doesn't seem likely unless I never go above freezing. Once the sun comes up on Tues, light rates won't add to totals. So I guess whatever I have on the ground by 8am or so will be the max and any snow after that will probably just replace melting and compaction if enough falls. That's where my head is at.

And to add to my thoughts. This could easily be another case where areas with lower precip totals report higher snow totals. I wouldn't be surprised at all if areas like Winchester/Leesburg/Mt Airy etc have more snow that me but I have a good bit more QPF.

psuhoffman · March 11, 2017

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

DWD Icon has a sweet deformation over us. Get the WAA snows and then the deform. That's the winning formula to go big. Of course, it's probably wrong, but I like looking at all of the different developments of each model to compare and study.

The 6z JMA was the best solution. Crazy qpf and cold despite a west track. That highlighted my point that juiced is more important then exact track. A stronger storm will be colder.

osfan24 · March 11, 2017

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 6z JMA was the best solution. Crazy qpf and cold despite a west track. That highlighted my point that juiced is more important then exact track. A stronger storm will be colder.

Maybe we get some kinda of combo of the two. Still more than 48 hours out. I'm guessing there is still more shifting around to be done.

vinylfreak89 · March 11, 2017

The 6z JMA was the best solution. Crazy qpf and cold despite a west track. That highlighted my point that juiced is more important then exact track. A stronger storm will be colder.

Can you link the 6z jma... I'm especially curious about the 500? My apologies if it was posted earlier.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

Bob Chill · March 11, 2017

1 minute ago, vinylfreak89 said:

Can you link the 6z jma... I'm especially curious about the 500? My apologies if it was posted earlier.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=jma&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=jma&stn2=PNM&hh2=078&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

Bob Chill · March 11, 2017

6z and 12z gefs qpf mean for comparison. Keep in mind the GEFS follows the op pretty close at this lead so the reduction on the means is totally expected. If 18z gfs comes in wetter then so will the gefs.

Ian · March 11, 2017

That's a hefty cut on the SW edge. The GFS was too wet tho..

cae · March 11, 2017

34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The maps are so hard to read on the UK though. All its really telling us is we are between 32 and 37 degrees at that time period. Who knows where it goes from there?

You can zoom in on those maps by switching to the "Quebec" view. It doesn't cover all of our region, but it gives higher resolution.

Bob Chill · March 11, 2017

1 minute ago, Ian said:

That's a hefty cut on the SW edge. The GFS was too wet tho..

I don't really put much stock in the GEFS @d3. Resolution is really course and all the panels ever show is a smoothed version of the op run. EPS is guilty of that as well but not at the same magnitude. Hopefully the 18z op comes in juiced so we can test my theory from past observation.

clskinsfan · March 11, 2017

12Z GFS Cobb data:

DCA:

170314/0000Z  60  12011KT  35.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   28|  0| 72
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/0300Z  63  08013KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13   57|  0| 43
170314/0600Z  66  05013KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.269    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40   51|  0| 49
170314/0900Z  69  01013KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.402    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80   68|  0| 32
170314/1200Z  72  36012KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98   50|  0| 50
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1500Z  75  36007KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01   56|  0| 44

IAD:

170314/0300Z  63  10008KT  32.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   84|  0| 16
170314/0600Z  66  06009KT  31.2F  SNOW   11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.227   11:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0
170314/0900Z  69  03009KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212   12:1|  5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  72  36007KT  30.1F  SNOW    9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153   11:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1500Z  75  33005KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   11:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64   76|  0| 24
170314/1800Z  78  VRB02KT  35.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   11:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65   34|  0| 66

BWI:

170314/0300Z  63  08018KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11   71|  0| 29
170314/0600Z  66  06020KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.181    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29   70|  0| 30
170314/0900Z  69  36014KT  34.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.543    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83   50|  0| 50
170314/1200Z  72  02020KT  35.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.337    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17   37|  0| 63
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1500Z  75  03018KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22   66|  0| 34
170314/1800Z  78  01008KT  34.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
170314/2100Z  81  27007KT  34.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
170315/0000Z  84  23011KT  35.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26   31|  0| 69
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170315/0300Z  87  28019KT  29.0F  SNOW   22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   22:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26  100|  0|  0
170315/0600Z  90  29022KT  26.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   22:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26    0|  0|  0
170315/0900Z  93  31021KT  26.0F  SNOW   22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   22:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28  100|  0|  0

MRB:

170314/0300Z  63  11008KT  30.8F  SNOW   13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115   13:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
170314/0600Z  66  09006KT  28.7F  SNOW    7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176   10:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0
170314/0900Z  69  35004KT  27.2F  SNOW    9:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.223    9:1|  4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  72  34004KT  26.5F  SNOW    5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153    8:1|  5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1500Z  75  31003KT  31.0F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    8:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69  100|  0|  0
170314/1800Z  78  27003KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    8:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72   66|  0| 34
170314/2100Z  81  23004KT  35.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027    8:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75   21|  0| 79

clskinsfan · March 11, 2017

2 minutes ago, cae said:

You can zoom in on those maps by switching to the "Quebec" view. It doesn't cover all of our region, but it gives higher resolution.

Thanks!

ers-wxman1 · March 11, 2017

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

12Z GFS Cobb data:

DCA:


170314/0000Z  60  12011KT  35.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   28|  0| 72
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/0300Z  63  08013KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13   57|  0| 43
170314/0600Z  66  05013KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.269    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40   51|  0| 49
170314/0900Z  69  01013KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.402    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80   68|  0| 32
170314/1200Z  72  36012KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98   50|  0| 50
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1500Z  75  36007KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01   56|  0| 44

IAD:


170314/0300Z  63  10008KT  32.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   84|  0| 16
170314/0600Z  66  06009KT  31.2F  SNOW   11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.227   11:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0
170314/0900Z  69  03009KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212   12:1|  5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  72  36007KT  30.1F  SNOW    9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153   11:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1500Z  75  33005KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   11:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64   76|  0| 24
170314/1800Z  78  VRB02KT  35.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   11:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65   34|  0| 66

BWI:


170314/0300Z  63  08018KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11   71|  0| 29
170314/0600Z  66  06020KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.181    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29   70|  0| 30
170314/0900Z  69  36014KT  34.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.543    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83   50|  0| 50
170314/1200Z  72  02020KT  35.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.337    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17   37|  0| 63
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1500Z  75  03018KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22   66|  0| 34
170314/1800Z  78  01008KT  34.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
170314/2100Z  81  27007KT  34.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22    0|  0|  0
170315/0000Z  84  23011KT  35.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26   31|  0| 69
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170315/0300Z  87  28019KT  29.0F  SNOW   22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   22:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26  100|  0|  0
170315/0600Z  90  29022KT  26.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   22:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26    0|  0|  0
170315/0900Z  93  31021KT  26.0F  SNOW   22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   22:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28  100|  0|  0

MRB:


170314/0300Z  63  11008KT  30.8F  SNOW   13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115   13:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
170314/0600Z  66  09006KT  28.7F  SNOW    7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176   10:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0
170314/0900Z  69  35004KT  27.2F  SNOW    9:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.223    9:1|  4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  72  34004KT  26.5F  SNOW    5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153    8:1|  5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/1500Z  75  31003KT  31.0F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    8:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69  100|  0|  0
170314/1800Z  78  27003KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    8:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72   66|  0| 34
170314/2100Z  81  23004KT  35.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027    8:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75   21|  0| 79

This is closer to reality.

cae · March 11, 2017

I'm not sure if I've seen these posted yet. QPF through 72 hours for the UKMET and DWD-ICON (German model).

eurojosh · March 11, 2017

Euro scarily slower with southern slp at 48.

Amped · March 11, 2017

1 minute ago, eurojosh said:

Euro scarily slower with southern slp at 48.

NS is further south and 850 are colder than yesterday... Not going to show a southern bomb though.

Deck Pic · March 11, 2017

snow starts in DC metro around 10-11pm

Deck Pic · March 11, 2017

so far a tad colder than last night's run....32-33 at 2am

BTRWx · March 11, 2017

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

NS is further south and 850 are colder than yesterday... Not going to show a southern bomb though.

Quite cold leading in at 850mb!

Deck Pic · March 11, 2017

Much improved over last night...cold enough...far western folks won't love it....

stormtracker · March 11, 2017

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Much improved over last night...cold enough...far western folks won't love it....

Anything like the CMC?

eurojosh · March 11, 2017

Hr 72 994lp off Virginia capes. Seems acceptable.

Interstate · March 11, 2017

Everyone needs to let the model run finish before commenting

stormtracker · March 11, 2017

Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Everyone needs to let the model run finish before commenting

Huh? They are doing pbp of the model

stormtracker · March 11, 2017

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017031112/ecmwf_T850_neus_4.png

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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)

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