Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wet snow at 32-34 will stick on power lines and trees. Still a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It does look pretty warm. But I'd guess it would depend on rates especially NW of the cities. If you're dumping snow at that point it can probably continue to stick at 33 or 34. Snow accumulated here yesterday for most of the morning with temps between 33-34. And that was after a warm stretch and temps in the 40's all night. If there is snow cover already, and the UKMET's presentation is correct, I see no reason totals wouldn't continue to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Question for PSU or Bob - is the German ICON model reliable? I think it's pretty new, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: UK track is perfect but 500 is not. Gradient will be very tight with this. Not favorable for heavy snow expansion into the western territories. This is my concern. Especially for me up here, can the really heavy banding needed to get the big totals 12+, get out here given the interference the primary seems to be running on developing a healthy Ccb precip shield in the west side of the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Question for PSU or Bob - is the German ICON model reliable? I think it's pretty new, no? It seems to do pretty well in general. Usually follows the herd so that's a good thing (unlike the NAM). It's still JV though. I'll never bet against the euro/ukie/gfs (in that order) at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 DWD Icon has a sweet deformation over us. Get the WAA snows and then the deform. That's the winning formula to go big. Of course, it's probably wrong, but I like looking at all of the different developments of each model to compare and study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I had a pm disco with kurtstack this morning and told him what I was thinking. I figured I'd post it here to go on the record: For now I would actually say 3-6" for dc and I95 east. 0-4" for areas east and south of 495. 4-8" for balt and burbs. 6-10" for the lucky folks in the northern and NE tiers. My yard I'm probably in the 3-6/4-8" range. I could see how I could get more than 8" but it doesn't seem likely unless I never go above freezing. Once the sun comes up on Tues, light rates won't add to totals. So I guess whatever I have on the ground by 8am or so will be the max and any snow after that will probably just replace melting and compaction if enough falls. That's where my head is at. And to add to my thoughts. This could easily be another case where areas with lower precip totals report higher snow totals. I wouldn't be surprised at all if areas like Winchester/Leesburg/Mt Airy etc have more snow that me but I have a good bit more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: DWD Icon has a sweet deformation over us. Get the WAA snows and then the deform. That's the winning formula to go big. Of course, it's probably wrong, but I like looking at all of the different developments of each model to compare and study. The 6z JMA was the best solution. Crazy qpf and cold despite a west track. That highlighted my point that juiced is more important then exact track. A stronger storm will be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 6z JMA was the best solution. Crazy qpf and cold despite a west track. That highlighted my point that juiced is more important then exact track. A stronger storm will be colder. Maybe we get some kinda of combo of the two. Still more than 48 hours out. I'm guessing there is still more shifting around to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The 6z JMA was the best solution. Crazy qpf and cold despite a west track. That highlighted my point that juiced is more important then exact track. A stronger storm will be colder. Can you link the 6z jma... I'm especially curious about the 500? My apologies if it was posted earlier.Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, vinylfreak89 said: Can you link the 6z jma... I'm especially curious about the 500? My apologies if it was posted earlier. Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=jma&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=jma&stn2=PNM&hh2=078&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6z and 12z gefs qpf mean for comparison. Keep in mind the GEFS follows the op pretty close at this lead so the reduction on the means is totally expected. If 18z gfs comes in wetter then so will the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 That's a hefty cut on the SW edge. The GFS was too wet tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The maps are so hard to read on the UK though. All its really telling us is we are between 32 and 37 degrees at that time period. Who knows where it goes from there? You can zoom in on those maps by switching to the "Quebec" view. It doesn't cover all of our region, but it gives higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Ian said: That's a hefty cut on the SW edge. The GFS was too wet tho.. I don't really put much stock in the GEFS @d3. Resolution is really course and all the panels ever show is a smoothed version of the op run. EPS is guilty of that as well but not at the same magnitude. Hopefully the 18z op comes in juiced so we can test my theory from past observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12Z GFS Cobb data: DCA: 170314/0000Z 60 12011KT 35.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 28| 0| 72 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/0300Z 63 08013KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 57| 0| 43 170314/0600Z 66 05013KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.269 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 51| 0| 49 170314/0900Z 69 01013KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.402 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80 68| 0| 32 170314/1200Z 72 36012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98 50| 0| 50 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/1500Z 75 36007KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 56| 0| 44 IAD: 170314/0300Z 63 10008KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 84| 0| 16 170314/0600Z 66 06009KT 31.2F SNOW 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.227 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 170314/0900Z 69 03009KT 29.9F SNOW 14:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212 12:1| 5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0 170314/1200Z 72 36007KT 30.1F SNOW 9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153 11:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/1500Z 75 33005KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64 76| 0| 24 170314/1800Z 78 VRB02KT 35.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 11:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 34| 0| 66 BWI: 170314/0300Z 63 08018KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 71| 0| 29 170314/0600Z 66 06020KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.181 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 70| 0| 30 170314/0900Z 69 36014KT 34.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.543 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 50| 0| 50 170314/1200Z 72 02020KT 35.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.337 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17 37| 0| 63 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/1500Z 75 03018KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22 66| 0| 34 170314/1800Z 78 01008KT 34.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 170314/2100Z 81 27007KT 34.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 170315/0000Z 84 23011KT 35.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 31| 0| 69 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170315/0300Z 87 28019KT 29.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 100| 0| 0 170315/0600Z 90 29022KT 26.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 0| 0| 0 170315/0900Z 93 31021KT 26.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 22:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28 100| 0| 0 MRB: 170314/0300Z 63 11008KT 30.8F SNOW 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 170314/0600Z 66 09006KT 28.7F SNOW 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176 10:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 170314/0900Z 69 35004KT 27.2F SNOW 9:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.223 9:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 170314/1200Z 72 34004KT 26.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153 8:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/1500Z 75 31003KT 31.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 8:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 170314/1800Z 78 27003KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 8:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 66| 0| 34 170314/2100Z 81 23004KT 35.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 8:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 21| 0| 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: You can zoom in on those maps by switching to the "Quebec" view. It doesn't cover all of our region, but it gives higher resolution. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 12Z GFS Cobb data: DCA: 170314/0000Z 60 12011KT 35.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 28| 0| 72 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/0300Z 63 08013KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 57| 0| 43 170314/0600Z 66 05013KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.269 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 51| 0| 49 170314/0900Z 69 01013KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.402 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80 68| 0| 32 170314/1200Z 72 36012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98 50| 0| 50 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/1500Z 75 36007KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 56| 0| 44 IAD: 170314/0300Z 63 10008KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 84| 0| 16 170314/0600Z 66 06009KT 31.2F SNOW 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.227 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 170314/0900Z 69 03009KT 29.9F SNOW 14:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212 12:1| 5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0 170314/1200Z 72 36007KT 30.1F SNOW 9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153 11:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/1500Z 75 33005KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64 76| 0| 24 170314/1800Z 78 VRB02KT 35.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 11:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 34| 0| 66 BWI: 170314/0300Z 63 08018KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 71| 0| 29 170314/0600Z 66 06020KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.181 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 70| 0| 30 170314/0900Z 69 36014KT 34.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.543 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 50| 0| 50 170314/1200Z 72 02020KT 35.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.337 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17 37| 0| 63 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/1500Z 75 03018KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22 66| 0| 34 170314/1800Z 78 01008KT 34.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 170314/2100Z 81 27007KT 34.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22 0| 0| 0 170315/0000Z 84 23011KT 35.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 31| 0| 69 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170315/0300Z 87 28019KT 29.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 100| 0| 0 170315/0600Z 90 29022KT 26.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 0| 0| 0 170315/0900Z 93 31021KT 26.0F SNOW 22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 22:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28 100| 0| 0 MRB: 170314/0300Z 63 11008KT 30.8F SNOW 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 170314/0600Z 66 09006KT 28.7F SNOW 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.176 10:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 170314/0900Z 69 35004KT 27.2F SNOW 9:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.223 9:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 170314/1200Z 72 34004KT 26.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153 8:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/1500Z 75 31003KT 31.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 8:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 170314/1800Z 78 27003KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 8:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 66| 0| 34 170314/2100Z 81 23004KT 35.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 8:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 21| 0| 79 This is closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm not sure if I've seen these posted yet. QPF through 72 hours for the UKMET and DWD-ICON (German model). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Euro scarily slower with southern slp at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Euro scarily slower with southern slp at 48. NS is further south and 850 are colder than yesterday... Not going to show a southern bomb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 snow starts in DC metro around 10-11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 so far a tad colder than last night's run....32-33 at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: NS is further south and 850 are colder than yesterday... Not going to show a southern bomb though. Quite cold leading in at 850mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Much improved over last night...cold enough...far western folks won't love it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: Much improved over last night...cold enough...far western folks won't love it.... Anything like the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hr 72 994lp off Virginia capes. Seems acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Everyone needs to let the model run finish before commenting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Everyone needs to let the model run finish before commenting Huh? They are doing pbp of the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017031112/ecmwf_T850_neus_4.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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