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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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I'm confused by some analysis here.  

GFS went from 994 to 991

Uki shows 988

ULL is holding back enough to let primary dig.

NAM talk was banned yesterday (for understandable reasons) but now that it shows a run that some dont like....the panic button is getting a workout.

Unless I'm missing something, today has been a slight positive in trends so far.

Someone tell me my analysis is off....

Nut

 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That low position is ideal for us.  GFS was kinda close to that?

ETA..GFS was actually a little further NE

Hard to infer exactly on the Ukie maps but appears the NS system digs in farther south? And as a result gives us the right interaction with the main SS wave to amplify and juice it up better. 

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From WPC

POTENTIAL FOR THE
STORM TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SLOW MOVEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF ACCUMULATIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP
SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.    
 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I'm confused by some analysis here.  

GFS went from 994 to 991

Uki shows 988

ULL is holding back enough to let primary dig.

NAM talk was banned yesterday (for understandable reasons) but now that it shows a run that some dont like....the panic button is getting a workout.

Unless I'm missing something, today has been a slight positive in trends so far.

Someone tell me my analysis is off....

Nut

 

I'll just state that I hold the same position as PSU.  I cringe when I see precip totals go down.  Others are watching the temps.  It's fine.  There are always going to be different concerns in this region.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'll just state that I hold the same position as PSU.  I cringe when I see precip totals go down.  Others are watching the temps.  It's fine.  There are always going to be different concerns in this region.

Fair enough...but at a time when models seem to struggle a bit as we approach near term, the trends are IMO somewhat expected, and often ramp up in the next 12 hours. 

Nut

 

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50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm just happy with the track. The gfs is notoriously inconsistent with qpf on the nw side of coastals. It's going to keep changing. If this was the 18z Monday then it would be more concerning. At this lead my main concern is a rainstorm. 

Very valid points 

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34 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

      Other model runs might show different totals?    Thanks so much!

      The point here is that in events with marginal temps and potential mixing, the snow depth maps are often more representative of what actually accumulates on the ground than the snow total maps.

 

 

I agree with you 100%... I was just saying that the only reason they are being brought up now is because the GFS did not show everyone getting a foot of snow on the accumulation map.  The CMC give Baltimore 16 inches of accumulation snow but a max of 7.9 snow depth.  So everyone that see the accumulation maps and see over a foot... Yes that might be falls... but will never be on the ground.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Yuck, that's ugly.  Whatever falls after this panel will have a tough time accumulating of those temps verify. 

The maps are so hard to read on the UK though. All its really telling us is we are between 32 and 37 degrees at that time period. Who knows where it goes from there?

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yuck, that's ugly.  Whatever falls after this panel will have a tough time accumulating if those temps verify. 

It does look pretty warm. But I'd guess it would depend on rates especially NW of the cities. If you're dumping snow at that point it can probably continue to stick at 33 or 34. 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It does look pretty warm. But I'd guess it would depend on rates especially NW of the cities. If you're dumping snow at that point it can probably continue to stick at 33 or 34. 

Yeah dumping at 32-34 is acceptable but 35-36 is just white rain unless you have January 2011 rates.   At any rate I'll take a 988 in that position and let the chips fall where they may. 

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