pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm confused by some analysis here. GFS went from 994 to 991 Uki shows 988 ULL is holding back enough to let primary dig. NAM talk was banned yesterday (for understandable reasons) but now that it shows a run that some dont like....the panic button is getting a workout. Unless I'm missing something, today has been a slight positive in trends so far. Someone tell me my analysis is off.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I definetely think there could be more qpf than depicted with the warmer than normal ocean waters. Or am i crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That low position is ideal for us. GFS was kinda close to that? ETA..GFS was actually a little further NE Hard to infer exactly on the Ukie maps but appears the NS system digs in farther south? And as a result gives us the right interaction with the main SS wave to amplify and juice it up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Wxhoov said: I definetely think there could be more qpf than depicted with the warmer than normal ocean waters. Or am i crazy? Well, 12z GFS was 40 miles east or so compared to 6z and was warmer and less snow. So maybe that or rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 From WPC POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SLOW MOVEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF ACCUMULATIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS. PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I'm confused by some analysis here. GFS went from 994 to 991 Uki shows 988 ULL is holding back enough to let primary dig. NAM talk was banned yesterday (for understandable reasons) but now that it shows a run that some dont like....the panic button is getting a workout. Unless I'm missing something, today has been a slight positive in trends so far. Someone tell me my analysis is off.... Nut I'll just state that I hold the same position as PSU. I cringe when I see precip totals go down. Others are watching the temps. It's fine. There are always going to be different concerns in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z UKMET has DCA at around 25mm at 72 hrs with more snow to come after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Anyone still tracking UKIE run? What's latest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 UK 2M temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Z-Cast said: Anyone still tracking UKIE run? What's latest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z Ukie is warmish at 12z Tues, near 35 at D.C, don't have the best feeling about Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Z-Cast said: Anyone still tracking UKIE run? What's latest? You should read the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'll just state that I hold the same position as PSU. I cringe when I see precip totals go down. Others are watching the temps. It's fine. There are always going to be different concerns in this region. Fair enough...but at a time when models seem to struggle a bit as we approach near term, the trends are IMO somewhat expected, and often ramp up in the next 12 hours. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm just happy with the track. The gfs is notoriously inconsistent with qpf on the nw side of coastals. It's going to keep changing. If this was the 18z Monday then it would be more concerning. At this lead my main concern is a rainstorm. Very valid points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 34 minutes ago, high risk said: Other model runs might show different totals? Thanks so much! The point here is that in events with marginal temps and potential mixing, the snow depth maps are often more representative of what actually accumulates on the ground than the snow total maps. I agree with you 100%... I was just saying that the only reason they are being brought up now is because the GFS did not show everyone getting a foot of snow on the accumulation map. The CMC give Baltimore 16 inches of accumulation snow but a max of 7.9 snow depth. So everyone that see the accumulation maps and see over a foot... Yes that might be falls... but will never be on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: That's very positive to hear! Are we going to have precipitation til Thursday with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z UKIE h5 at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK 2M temps: Yuck, that's ugly. Whatever falls after this panel will have a tough time accumulating if those temps verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: That's very positive to hear! I think they are referring to once it gets north of our latitude. Some models do show it stalling a bit once it gets north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Yuck, that's ugly. Whatever falls after this panel will have a tough time accumulating if those temps verify. Its snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Yuck, that's ugly. Whatever falls after this panel will have a tough time accumulating of those temps verify. The maps are so hard to read on the UK though. All its really telling us is we are between 32 and 37 degrees at that time period. Who knows where it goes from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Its snowing Ukie often seems to run warm on 2M temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 UK track is perfect but 500 is not. Gradient will be very tight with this. Not favorable for heavy snow expansion into the western territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: The maps are so hard to read on the UK though. All its really telling us is we are between 32 and 37 degrees at that time period. Who knows where it goes from there? WE are well below 32. I can read that much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yuck, that's ugly. Whatever falls after this panel will have a tough time accumulating if those temps verify. It does look pretty warm. But I'd guess it would depend on rates especially NW of the cities. If you're dumping snow at that point it can probably continue to stick at 33 or 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, hosj III said: Ukie often seems to run warm on 2M temps... Correct. UK isn't known for stellar performance on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: WE are well below 32. I can read that much of it. Not according to that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Not according to that map? The blue is below 0 Celsius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It does look pretty warm. But I'd guess it would depend on rates especially NW of the cities. If you're dumping snow at that point it can probably continue to stick at 33 or 34. Yeah dumping at 32-34 is acceptable but 35-36 is just white rain unless you have January 2011 rates. At any rate I'll take a 988 in that position and let the chips fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 35 minutes ago, yoda said: 6z JMA and 12z DWD-ICON are monster hits over the region FWIW The dwd-icon is exactly what I want to see. Bombing low tucked in with compact well developed Ccb unloading over us. That's the winning scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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