clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You gonna be happy with your 2" as long as the cities don't mix? No. Not really. And my posts from earlier this morning talked about how it would be very rare for all of us to "win" in a March storm. If we get big snows they rain. If they get big snows we lack QPF. And the GFS is basically what I was concerned about. The phase is too late for us. We will end up with a few inches up front I am almost convinced at this point. But the big snows will be NE like every other Miller B. I hate frikin Miller B's with a passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yup. If I get 2.5" that puts me in double digits for the winter, so thats my low bar goal. Yup. Anything more than 2" will be my biggest event of the season. Hard to complain about that, in March none the less. But whatever makes people feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The best case sensible weather scenario for this storm in DC was always Feb. 14 and Feb. 06. Overnight thumps. The Euro from yesterday with an extended storm period was the outlier. The GFS to this point had shown that scenario with copious QPF falling into a "good enough" airmass. If the thump goes away, we are left in a very precarious situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Interesting that the various models have such varying solutions given that we are relatively close to the "event". They aren't horribly far apart given the complexity of the setup. Although if there is not good agreement as we approach game time, its a red flag for a bust of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm happy with 3". 9", which is where the GFS has me, would be incredible. I'm not going to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Posts have been coming in fast, so I'll try to bump this. We do still have plenty of time to correct this back to what the ensembles have shown. So, for my back yard, QPF stayed the same for three runs. Went drier for one. I guess that's a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6z JMA and 12z DWD-ICON are monster hits over the region FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It won't be a 4-8 inch snow that's the problem. Lose the rates and lose the storm. Going from a 12-18 prog to 4-8 given all said potential implications is not a good look going into this. Trends are in the wrong direction since last night and looks more like a deepening storm going north of us which leaves us to depend on waa front thump? No thanks. Can we start with the basics? Shouldn't we be relying on models that nail the 500 mb depiction? If so, which models are showing nearly the same depiction and have good verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It won't be a 4-8 inch snow that's the problem. Lose the rates and lose the storm. Going from a 12-18 prog to 4-8 given all said potential implications is not a good look going into this. Trends are in the wrong direction since last night and looks more like a deepening storm going north of us which leaves us to depend on waa front thump? No thanks. I agree. That kind of shift has a March 2001 feel to it, but at the same time I think it's too early to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Curious to see the UK..I always look to that as a precursor to the Euro...well not always since I know they aren't 100% in lock step every time. Anybody got UK data yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So, for my back yard, QPF stayed the same for three runs. Went drier for one. I guess that's a trend The big picture is what matters. Purples nearly disappear. Nobody is saying this is what we should expect, but many of us will now need bigger wobbles to prevent metro folks from sucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Curious to see the UK..I always look to that as a precursor to the Euro...well not always since I know they aren't 100% in lock step every time. Anybody got UK data yet? When does it come out. I can never remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: They aren't horribly far apart given the complexity of the setup. Although if there is not good agreement as we approach game time, its a red flag for a bust of some sort. The variations in the surface are pretty big. In our area for this storm, 50 miles is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 If you guys are interested, very good site for getting the uk imo. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=000&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 YES PLEASE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 UK looks good at 72, waiting for precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ukie precip isn't out but oh man, 988 in a perfect spot off va beach with 540 thicknesses se of dc. It's probably a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 UK looks promising if this depiction is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yeah, I'd take the UK and run, providing we're not 900 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It won't be a 4-8 inch snow that's the problem. Lose the rates and lose the storm. Going from a 12-18 prog to 4-8 given all said potential implications is not a good look going into this. Trends are in the wrong direction since last night and looks more like a deepening storm going north of us which leaves us to depend on waa front thump? No thanks. Yep. Therein lies the problem (most of the time) with a Miller B, at least an intermediate B when the OH Valley-WVa low isn't occluding fast enough. Either thermals are a problem, or some dry slottage and lack of def banding over our area before the coastal low attains its own baroclinic leaf structure. Sometimes both are problems. For now I'll remain mildly optimistic and somewhat in a wait-and-see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The variations in the surface are pretty big. In our area for this storm, 50 miles is huge. Agree. For me its also 850 and 700 mb temps as the coastal gets cranking. Almost zero chance of getting all snow here with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Is it just me or are those UK maps tough to get a handle on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ukie precip isn't out but oh man, 988 in a perfect spot off va beach with 540 thicknesses se of dc. It's probably a monster. That low position is ideal for us. GFS was kinda close to that? ETA..GFS was actually a little further NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ok every time I say something negative some over react. The gfs run was ok. It wasn't a bad run. But I'm rooting for taking advantage of the potential here. And I think some are thinking less amped will help with temps. I don't. We don't want the low tracking inland but plenty of amped runs had the low offshore. The thermal boundary seems pretty locked in. Even when the gfs shifts the low 50 miles east it didn't effect the rain snow line much. And even that para nam bomb run I posted that tracked up the Delmarva still kept 95 mostly snow. Only the truly crazy inland NAM solutions really push the boundary west. Imo we want a stronger system. No we don't want it to cut inland but that seems unlikely to me now. But if your getting 1" qpf in 6 hours that will tip the scales in your favor on borderline temps way more then if it's .4 qpf. A more dynamic system will help with temps. If I were to pick the runs that showed what I'm rooting for the 6z gfs, 6z JMA, most of the U.K.met runs, yesterday's 12z euro, or that crazy para nam but shifted 50 miles east. That kind of juiced up bomb will tilt things our way on temps. So any run that moves towards a dryer less amped solution I'm not happy with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Around 0.75 inches for DC and you'd think with that low position still some significant precip to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: That's about 4" of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Guys, let's keep it together and on track. Banter is being deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That's about 4" of snow here. Yeah but the low is closer in and also still south of our area, so there should be more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I think the reality with this storm is that some people (by no means a majority) are going to lose. By lose, I mean getting <6" of snow or having mixing issues, which is still pretty amazing for March. This is hard to accept because the "who is going to lose" question keeps bouncing around - is it a lack of qpf to the south or west, warm temps to the east, the precip axis being narrow? You can see this pretty clearly on all the qpf and snow maps - this isn't an area-wide dump. We won't know until monday, really. I'm saying this to compare it to January 2016, when pretty much everyone got demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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