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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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6 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

     

    Those snow depth maps are indeed worth a look, and they do cut down the totals from the "snow accumulation" maps that are regularly posted here, but you are linking to the map valid at 18z.    That is after a some melting and compacting has occurred.   The map valid at 12z looks a fair amount better.

  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Are people just seeing what they want to see?  And why are they scared of amped. Get this thing amped.  The best runs were amped just good track. A weak storm isn't going to work when the primary goes west. We need the coastal hitting on all cylinders. I want to see 2-3"qpf. Then take our chances on temps. But .75 qpf with marginal temps in mid march isn't going to make us happy. 

Yep. I agree with this. There is cold air to work with, but the cold air isn't THAT cold, so we would be better off with a super amped storm and hope that rates and dynamics take care of keeping us all frozen. I'm kinda surprised this thing isn't a bit colder and slower with the high sitting to the north.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Are people just seeing what they want to see?  And why are they scared of amped. Get this thing amped.  The best runs were amped just good track. A weak storm isn't going to work when the primary goes west. We need the coastal hitting on all cylinders. I want to see 2-3"qpf. Then take our chances on temps. But .75 qpf with marginal temps in mid march isn't going to make us happy. 

I'm just happy with the track. The gfs is notoriously inconsistent with qpf on the nw side of coastals. It's going to keep changing. If this was the 18z Monday then it would be more concerning. At this lead my main concern is a rainstorm. 

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Take the 12z from yesterday and compare it to the 12z today. Now take another step in the wrong direction at 18z and we're literally left with 4-8. Is 4-8 awesome for March? Absolutetly. You just can't have this continue. 


With those rates you can't trust the snow maps though. 4-8 at those rates will equal another snowquester fail. 100 % guarantee

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

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The main difference I notice comparing 12z to 6z GFS runs are the positions of the low at 12z Tuesday.  At 6z Tuesday and 18z Tuesday the low positions are virtually identical to this mornings run, but at 12z it's well east of this mornings run.  That wobble east seems to be pretty meaningful for us in terms of QPF.  It's also possibly just noise. 

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Some people really don't want snow they only want 20" or bust. 

It hasn't snowed all winter and it's March. 8 inches on those maps in March, especially with most overnight, means it will be almost nothing by the end of the next day.

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Just now, UIWWildthing said:

Thank you all for the discussion and analysis, one question I have is how do you feel this is going to affect the Baltimore metro area. I'm seeing less towards DC, but little comment about around here.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk
 

My thinking is Baltimore will *probably* do slightly better than DC due being further NE and closer to the low as it bombs....but you never know...it's also a little further east so it can be vulnerable to warm air intrusions as well.  

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

     

    Those snow depth maps are indeed worth a look, and they do cut down the totals from the "snow accumulation" maps that are regularly posted here, but you are linking to the map valid at 18z.    That is after a some melting and compacting has occurred.   The map valid at 12z looks a fair amount better.

  

Now that the Snow accumulation maps are coming down a little people are going to snow depth maps.  Look at other runs and see what they show.

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

My thinking is Baltimore will *probably* do slightly better than DC due being further NE and closer to the low as it bombs....but you never know...it's also a little further east so it can be vulnerable to warm air intrusions as well.  

In and around Bmore could jackpot.

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Explain to us the trend.   Especially since this is the only run that cut down on qpf.  Give us a detailed analysis. 

I will post maps in a sec (editing this post)

qpf is clearly on the decline

 

march 10 to 11_2017 gfs qpf trends.gif

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It hasn't snowed all winter and it's March. 8 inches on those maps in March, especially with most overnight, means it will be almost nothing by the end of the next day.

So would you rather no storm or all rain, and not have to worry about having "almost nothing" a day later after getting 8"? Yes it's March so we kind of expect that it won't stay a long time and yes there are legit concerns here on what might happen. But it could still be a wild time after an awful winter. 

Mods, sorry for the semi-banter. But some of this tearing of hair and gnashing  of teeth is getting a bit much. 

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1 minute ago, smokeybandit said:

Didn't it recently have an extremely eastern track and people were worried about it foreshadowing the other models?

It did, but I don't think anybody was particularly worried about it.  It isn't a very good model, regardless of what it's showing.   I'd love for it to be right though.

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Just now, smokeybandit said:

Didn't it recently have an extremely eastern track and people were worried about it foreshadowing the other models?

Yeah, the CMC was the first to sniff this out IIRC, so people got nervous when it tried to run out to sea. This was certainty a good run, precip increased for everyone and it was pretty cold.

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4 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Now that the Snow accumulation maps are coming down a little people are going to snow depth maps.  Look at other runs and see what they show.

 

      Other model runs might show different totals?    Thanks so much!

      The point here is that in events with marginal temps and potential mixing, the snow depth maps are often more representative of what actually accumulates on the ground than the snow total maps.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The one thing I am noticing on the GFS is surface temps. They obviously crash at precip onset. But the freezing line really straddles the cities through the entire event.

You gonna be happy with your 2" as long as the cities don't mix?

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12 minutes ago, snowfan said:

There are some ungrateful bastards in this forum. Stop fng complaining about 4-8" of snow in March during what has otherwise been a giant CF of a winter. 

It won't be a 4-8 inch snow that's the problem. Lose the rates and lose the storm. Going from a 12-18 prog to 4-8 given all said potential implications is not a good look going into this. Trends are in the wrong direction since last night and looks more like a deepening storm going north of us which leaves us to depend on waa front thump? No thanks.

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9 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

I will post maps in a sec (editing this post)

qpf is clearly on the decline

 

march 10 to 11_2017 gfs qpf trends.gif

Posts have been coming in fast, so I'll try to bump this.  We do still have plenty of time to correct this back to what the ensembles have shown. ;)

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