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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah but the track is still good for us even though the QPF doesn't look as nice.

I've seen that theory before and it rarely ends well for the District.  The warm nose trend must come to a halt asap or 2013...nvm

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I haven't posted in a long time, but just want to make one brief comment here. This run tended toward an earlier phase but because it's not complete by the time it reaches us, it cuts off the moisture transport due to an unfavorable jet configuration. If this is a start of a trend, in 2-3 runs from now we may really be liking what we see. However, this is one of the possible ways we end up with a miller B screwjob is this half phased solution. We either want a full phase or no phase at our latitude. This in between isn't going to cut it.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

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Yup. The one thing to take away from this run is that it cuts down on precip for the area. It bombs further north. Follow the trends. Not saying it is a trend yet...have to wait for the euro but we're close to have to start worrying about dryslotting pretty quick and bombing to the north. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

you mad at 6 to 12" of snow?

Yeah I'm definitely not mad about this.  While this run cut back on QPF slightly for DC and more so for the western and northwestern burbs I'm glad we didn't see a big shift to something way overamped that would've ended in us totally failing.  This is a nice track for us.  

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah I'm definitely not mad about this.  While this run cut back on QPF slightly for DC and more so for the western and northwestern burbs I'm glad we didn't see a big shift to something way overamped that would've ended in us totally failing.  This is a nice track for us.  

What time will we start to get Euro data posted this afternoon 12:45ish??

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12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah I'm definitely not mad about this.  While this run cut back on QPF slightly for DC and more so for the western and northwestern burbs I'm glad we didn't see a big shift to something way overamped that would've ended in us totally failing.  This is a nice track for us.  

It certainly wouldn't be 6-12" for D.C.

iwm snow depth maps tend to be more realistic fyi

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017031112&time=72&var=SNODI&hour=072

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Yup. The one thing to take away from this run is that it cuts down on precip for the area. It bombs further north. Follow the trends. Not saying it is a trend yet...have to wait for the euro but we're close to have to start worrying about dryslotting pretty quick and bombing to the north. 

It's not super wet for anyone other than LI. Our area does about as well any metro area northeast of us. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Psu should be here shortly telling us how this is a another step towards losing it all to the NE. 

I don't know about losing it all. I don't see a total miss. But I guess my fear is a slow bleed away from rapidly intensifying the southern system and a slower development which then adjust the really good stuff (the 1.5 qpf) further northeast each run.  It slowly degrades to where we're left with .5-.75 qpf with marginal temps and suddenly we're tracking a 3-5" slop event instead of a mecs of hecs. 

Do I think that is our fate no. But did the gfs just do anything to comfort me against that no. 

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Just now, gymengineer said:

It's not super wet for anyone other than LI. Our area does about as well any metro area northeast of us. 

I liked the track better. My biggest fear was a mid level wrecking ball showing it's face. 6" of snow is always better than 1.5" of rain. At least in my opinion anyways. 

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

For me it's still a good run....1 inch of QPF falling mostly overnight probably is 4-8 inches in DC.   I'm ok with that and consider it a great storm for March.  Of course I'd like to see a top shelf 10-15 inch storm but hey, it's mid march.  

That's about right (but low end for dca)

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6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

 Not a good run at all unless you are up in Northeast MD. Quite a bit drier especially for northern VA, DC and to I-81. Rates aren't great either. 

Are people just seeing what they want to see?  And why are they scared of amped. Get this thing amped.  The best runs were amped just good track. A weak storm isn't going to work when the primary goes west. We need the coastal hitting on all cylinders. I want to see 2-3"qpf. Then take our chances on temps. But .75 qpf with marginal temps in mid march isn't going to make us happy. 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's terrible.  Only I-97 and points north and east win.  The rest is left on the outside looking in.

Take the 12z from yesterday and compare it to the 12z today. Now take another step in the wrong direction at 18z and we're literally left with 4-8. Is 4-8 awesome for March? Absolutetly. You just can't have this continue. 

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