Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Quasievil said: Right, I almost think we're outside of its useful range. We're getting real close to op only range. By this time tomorrow, ens won't add much to the discussion because they will definitely move lock step with the ops and the resolution of the ops will provide superior detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GEFS Low locations. Pictures may be out of order... sorry for that. Bottom one first, then top one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Really agree with @crankywxguy here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Good analysis - https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/840247220544950276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I disagree with cranky about "little value". The ops are showing the envelope to work inside of. That is very valuable. The only thing to NOT do is make a definitive decision that one is more correct over the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Here ya go, Bob - ETA -Dammit. Trying again: Oh man. That is about as perfect a setup as you can get. 50/50, HP in place and plenty of juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This could very well be a much stronger system then currently simulated and models are having a hard time resolving the pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Does anyone know of the Canadian Ensembles? I remember them last year being posted before the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: This could very well be a much stronger system then currently simulated and models are having a hard time resolving the pieces. Can you provide any previous examples where this has been an issue? The first of the two Feb 2010 massive storms, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Can you provide any previous examples where this has been an issue? The first of the two Feb 2010 massive storms, perhaps? Feb 12-13 2014 track problems, waffling intensities for days then produced very heavy snow totals. I was deployed outside Baltimore and forecast amounts were increased several times during the event. Dynamic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree with cranky about "little value". The ops are showing the envelope to work inside of. That is very valuable. The only thing to NOT do is make a definitive decision that one is more correct over the other. Yup. No one should be making a forecast as of yet so he would be right in that sense. All the models are doing are showing possibilities at this stage. GEFS especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: GEFS Low locations. Pictures may be out of order... sorry for that. Bottom one first, then top one. Except for perhaps the low centers in southern VA and a couple in NC (which look the farthest west though farther south too), appears to me that all the other lows are a tad east of the 12Z GFS ops, for what that might be worth. Though overall they are a bit west of the previous GEFS cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Feb 12-13 2014 track problems, waffling intensities for days then produced very heavy snow totals. I was deployed outside Baltimore and forecast amounts were increased several times during the event. Dynamic storm. Believe the GFS was also late to the party with the precip amounts on that too (compared to other guidance)...it finally jumped on board very close to when that event started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Really agree with @crankywxguy here: This sounds logical and reads well on something like Twitter but is just not accurate. Anyone that's been paying any attention at all to NWP advancements over the last 20 years knows that model data is absolutely useful in the >84h timeframe even in a complex or dynamic environment. Maybe not to the twitterverse but to mets, forecasters and seasoned hobbyists, definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, das said: This sounds logical and reads well on something like Twitter but is just not accurate. Anyone that's been paying any attention at all to NWP advancements over the last 20 years knows that model data is absolutely useful in the >84h timeframe. Maybe not to the twitterverse but to mets, forecasters and seasoned hobbyists, definitely. I agree, in theory, on how the models are different on several key factors which will determine the real outcome. I'm not referring to the rest of his statements. I should've been clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Does anyone know of the Canadian Ensembles? I remember them last year being posted before the blizzard. I read somewhere else they are on the coast...op is an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I read somewhere else they are on the coast...op is an outlier They're east, but not as far as the op. And a lot of members off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: They're east, but not as far as the op. And a lot of members off the coast. So that is good news for us re snowfall then, correct? And I gather that they are slightly further east of the GFS SLP location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This is the IAD Cobb for the 12Z GFS: 170314/0000Z 84 10005KT 29.4F SNOW 20:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 20:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/0300Z 87 09009KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.204 14:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 170314/0600Z 90 05009KT 27.4F SNOW 12:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.420 13:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0 170314/0900Z 93 35009KT 27.8F SNOW 16:1| 5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.333 14:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09 100| 0| 0 170314/1200Z 96 33009KT 27.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.100 14:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 1.19 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Probability maps to keep us occupied for the next 15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: So that is good news for us re snowfall then, correct? And I gather that they are slightly further east of the GFS SLP location? I would assume that's good for snow, but didn't look that close. Only one member near the GFS that I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z NAVGEM is east but since it's a progressive model by nature (and a notsogood one either) I think this is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Probability maps to keep us occupied for the next 15 minutes Wow... those are some high probs, especially for teh 12"+ one... 20-30% is pretty high this far out as a percentage chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 We really shouldn't care much about the GGEM. It isn't very good. The Euro is about to give it a complete smackdown. Anyway...CMC ENS mean as mentioned is east of the other guidance but west of OP. 0.75" - 1" QPF for most of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro through 48 seems a bit slower with the NS, a bit weaker with the southern SLP... Very minor differences, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Wow... those are some high probsm, especially for teh 12"+ one... 20-30% is pretty high this far out as a percentage chance Those may be the best looking ensemble probabilities I've ever seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 DT dimisses the GFS , both 6Z and 12Z outputs , due to two primary GFS biases. He was referring to the thermals I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I love that this is such a super legit air mass......not some 3/6/13 tropical nightmare. 20s Monday morning into South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The euro may phase a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Through 72 on the Euro... sharper trough developing... SLP preparing to jump over northern Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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