high risk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's not complicated with "all of the NAMs". There is an operational parent (12 km) and a nest (4 km). There is a parallel version of each which will become operational later this week; the resolution of the nest increases from 4 km to 3 km. Anyhow, if you look at the parallel 12 km NAM on mageval.ncep.noaa.gov, the surface low is in a MUCH better location and closer to the globals. But even this solution in the new NAM changes most of the area over to ZR or IP for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ji said: When the nam adjusts to reality...its gonna show lots of snow for us Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I agree. I like seeing the NAM over amped right now. I would worry if it wasn't. The 3k NAM is well east of the 12k also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I see the NAM as giving a careful hint of the amount of uncertainty in this event. While the range may not be its wheelhouse, there are plenty of moving parts with this. For the time of year, this would be nearing a record event for many cities IF what guidance is projecting is correct. March is a volatile month and dynamic things can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, high risk said: It's not complicated with "all of the NAMs". There is an operational parent (12 km) and a nest (4 km). There is a parallel version of each which will become operational later this week; the resolution of the nest increases from 4 km to 3 km. Anyhow, if you look at the parallel 12 km NAM on mageval.ncep.noaa.gov, the surface low is in a MUCH better location and closer to the globals. But even this solution in the new NAM changes most of the area over to ZR or IP for a while. Thank you! An island of sanity in a sea of bad analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I see the NAM as giving a careful hint of the amount of uncertainty in this event. While the range may not be its wheelhouse, there are plenty of moving parts with this. For the time of year, this would be nearing a record event for many cities IF what guidance is projecting is correct. March is a volatile month and dynamic things can happen. Think an expectation of snow to mix is a smart move at this point. Need things to align perfectly for a big one in January and it's March. This seems like a classic snow to mix setup for the obvious reasons...low a bit north...warmer than usual Atlantic...march sun angle (tues morning)...etc. an all snow event would be pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, high risk said: It's not complicated with "all of the NAMs". There is an operational parent (12 km) and a nest (4 km). There is a parallel version of each which will become operational later this week; the resolution of the nest increases from 4 km to 3 km. Anyhow, if you look at the parallel 12 km NAM on mageval.ncep.noaa.gov, the surface low is in a MUCH better location and closer to the globals. But even this solution in the new NAM changes most of the area over to ZR or IP for a while. It's still the NAM so I'm not getting upset over it, but the new para nam is awful. My worst fear lol. It develops slow and so all the really good heavy stuff is north of us. It cut our precip from 2-2.5 qpf to .5-1. I want a juiced up bomb. At least 1.5 qpf. It's march and we have a primary to our nw. A weak system with .7 qpf isn't going to get it done. Give me a juiced up bomb and I'll take my chances on temps but my worst fear is this morphing into some pathetic .75 qpf thing with marginal temps and we're left fighting for 3-5" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's still the NAM so I'm not getting upset over it, but the new para nam is awful. My worst fear lol. It develops slow and so all the really good heavy stuff is north of us. It cut our precip from 2-2.5 qpf to .5-1. I want a juiced up bomb. At least 1.5 qpf. It's march and we have a primary to our nw. A weak system with .7 qpf isn't going to get it done. Give me a juiced up bomb and I'll take my chances on temps but my worst fear is this morphing into some pathetic .75 qpf thing with marginal temps and we're left fighting for 3-5" of slop. When you constantly look for your worst nightmare you tend to find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's still the NAM so I'm not getting upset over it, but the new para nam is awful. My worst fear lol. It develops slow and so all the really good heavy stuff is north of us. It cut our precip from 2-2.5 qpf to .5-1. I want a juiced up bomb. At least 1.5 qpf. It's march and we have a primary to our nw. A weak system with .7 qpf isn't going to get it done. Give me a juiced up bomb and I'll take my chances on temps but my worst fear is this morphing into some pathetic .75 qpf thing with marginal temps and we're left fighting for 3-5" of slop. We are admittedly still outside of the best range for regional models, so I will also assume for now that the para NAM is a "dry" outlier and hope that some of the 12z global runs come in with super wet solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 at hour 36, southern storm that becomes the main vort looks a bit stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: at hour 36, southern storm that becomes the main vort looks a bit stronger We want to see a stronger southern stream, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Northern piece digging a little more at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 SLP SE of ILM at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I haven't gotten yelled at this AM so lets get it on. The "NAM" at 500 shows a Northern stream vort dropping down and interacting with the southern, all too far west for my taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NS vort down in KY at 57 this run. Should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, winterymix said: I haven't gotten yelled at this AM so lets get it on. The "NAM" at 500 shows a Northern stream vort dropping down and interacting with the southern, all too far west for my taste. I'm about to start moving your NAM posts to banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The low position a top 60h seems perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Both lows are closer together this run, should mean an earlier phase I'd think. Northern low further south is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Good run... brief changeover for cities maybe, but another demolishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gfs looks good all around. Not west. Not mixey. On to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hmm, slightly colder, but drier so far at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 We hold onto 850s at hr66... Could be a good run. Don't have 2m temps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Good run... brief changeover for cities maybe, but another demolishing. ? There is no panel where we changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: ? There is no panel where we changeover To be fair, at hr66 the metro flirts with slightly above 32 ground temps. Other then that it's seemingly ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hmm, slightly colder, but drier so far at 66 It's the dance with the devil. No trend into the danger zone. We still have breathing room for a tighter track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ? There is no panel where we changeover The 850 0C on IWM looked like it got really close to the cities... I said 'maybe' It's hard to tell with the free maps as zoomed out as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: ? There is no panel where we changeover It looks like DC loses the surface freezing line sometime between 9 and 12z and it's long gone by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The one thing I am noticing on the GFS is surface temps. They obviously crash at precip onset. But the freezing line really straddles the cities through the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hmm, slightly colder, but drier so far at 66 much! This run is not good for dca one bit. eta: <1" qpf, iwm has 3-4" as total snow depth locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 h72....surface temps are at or slightly above along and east of 95, but below freezing above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: The one thing I am noticing on the GFS is surface temps. They obviously crash at precip onset. But the freezing line really straddles the cities through the entire event. Typical with big events in DC. It's part of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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