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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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It's not complicated with "all of the NAMs".   There is an operational parent (12 km) and a nest (4 km).    There is a parallel version of each which will become operational later this week;  the resolution of the nest increases from 4 km to 3 km.

Anyhow, if you look at the parallel 12 km NAM on mageval.ncep.noaa.gov, the surface low is in a MUCH better location and closer to the globals.   But even this solution in the new NAM changes most of the area over to ZR or IP for a while.      

 

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I see the NAM as giving a careful hint of the amount of uncertainty in this event. While the range may not be its wheelhouse, there are plenty of moving parts with this. For the time of year, this would be nearing a record event for many cities IF what guidance is projecting is correct. March is a volatile month and dynamic things can happen. 

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

It's not complicated with "all of the NAMs".   There is an operational parent (12 km) and a nest (4 km).    There is a parallel version of each which will become operational later this week;  the resolution of the nest increases from 4 km to 3 km.

Anyhow, if you look at the parallel 12 km NAM on mageval.ncep.noaa.gov, the surface low is in a MUCH better location and closer to the globals.   But even this solution in the new NAM changes most of the area over to ZR or IP for a while.      

 

Thank you! An island of sanity in a sea of bad analysis. 

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5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I see the NAM as giving a careful hint of the amount of uncertainty in this event. While the range may not be its wheelhouse, there are plenty of moving parts with this. For the time of year, this would be nearing a record event for many cities IF what guidance is projecting is correct. March is a volatile month and dynamic things can happen. 

Think an expectation of snow to mix is a smart move at this point.  Need things to align perfectly for a big one in January and it's March.  This seems like a classic snow to mix setup for the obvious reasons...low a bit north...warmer than usual Atlantic...march sun angle (tues morning)...etc. an all snow event would be pretty incredible.

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15 minutes ago, high risk said:

It's not complicated with "all of the NAMs".   There is an operational parent (12 km) and a nest (4 km).    There is a parallel version of each which will become operational later this week;  the resolution of the nest increases from 4 km to 3 km.

Anyhow, if you look at the parallel 12 km NAM on mageval.ncep.noaa.gov, the surface low is in a MUCH better location and closer to the globals.   But even this solution in the new NAM changes most of the area over to ZR or IP for a while.      

 

It's still the NAM so I'm not getting upset over it, but the new para nam is awful. My worst fear lol. It develops slow and so all the really good heavy stuff is north of us. It cut our precip from 2-2.5 qpf to .5-1. 

I want a juiced up bomb. At least 1.5 qpf. It's march and we have a primary to our nw. A weak system with .7 qpf isn't going to get it done. Give me a juiced up bomb and I'll take my chances on temps but my worst fear is this morphing into some pathetic .75 qpf thing with marginal temps and we're left fighting for 3-5" of slop. 

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's still the NAM so I'm not getting upset over it, but the new para nam is awful. My worst fear lol. It develops slow and so all the really good heavy stuff is north of us. It cut our precip from 2-2.5 qpf to .5-1. 

I want a juiced up bomb. At least 1.5 qpf. It's march and we have a primary to our nw. A weak system with .7 qpf isn't going to get it done. Give me a juiced up bomb and I'll take my chances on temps but my worst fear is this morphing into some pathetic .75 qpf thing with marginal temps and we're left fighting for 3-5" of slop. 

When you constantly look for your worst nightmare you tend to find it

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's still the NAM so I'm not getting upset over it, but the new para nam is awful. My worst fear lol. It develops slow and so all the really good heavy stuff is north of us. It cut our precip from 2-2.5 qpf to .5-1. 

I want a juiced up bomb. At least 1.5 qpf. It's march and we have a primary to our nw. A weak system with .7 qpf isn't going to get it done. Give me a juiced up bomb and I'll take my chances on temps but my worst fear is this morphing into some pathetic .75 qpf thing with marginal temps and we're left fighting for 3-5" of slop. 

 

          We are admittedly still outside of the best range for regional models, so I will also assume for now that the para NAM is a "dry" outlier and hope that some of the 12z global runs come in with super wet solutions.

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