cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Normally by now I'd be leaning more OP than ENS, but this storm is different given its complexity. I'm 60/40 OP now but the ENS can still be useful to see if the wheels are about to come off. PSUHoff expressed those concerns in detail on page 27 and that's the only fly in the ointment I see. The 06z gefs look good to me, in fact a bit better since only one member has that pesky Ohio Valley energy now. At 72 hours out, the ensemble means have still been out-verifying the ops. This is especially true if you look at the better ensembles like the NAEFS and, I'd presume, the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It may not be much but at least the nam has shifted south a tiny bit with the ns low through 36. At least it's not north and it's in the useful nam range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It may not be much but at least the nam has shifted south a tiny bit with the ns low through 36. At least it's not north and it's in the useful nam range. I was keeping it to myself, but I thought the northern stream looked better at hour 20. You can see it shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, cae said: At 72 hours out, the ensemble means have still been out-verifying the ops. This is especially true if you look at the better ensembles like the NAEFS and, I'd presume, the EPS. Ageed. We may need to use the ensemble right up to HR 24 this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It may not be much but at least the nam has shifted south a tiny bit with the ns low through 36. At least it's not north and it's in the useful nam range. Also... just a 50 mile shift south could be huge for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 At 54 northern stream has dug further west and there are higher heights in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: At 54 northern stream has dug further west and there are higher heights in the east. It is more in line with the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Out to 7am Tuesday, combined WFO snow forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ok guys, it was three days ago. Move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: Out to 7am Tuesday, combined WFO snow forecast 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ha, yes, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 You guys thinking sleet taint or rain taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks like the snow is going to start right around rush hour on Monday evening? Could be a real mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM 5pm Monday temps upper 30s and dews in the upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM is way west of GFS at 66, low popped inland on the VA/NC border. Hoping it's just the NAM being the NAM at longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Shortwave riding the southern portions of the trough much more distinct and stronger. Probably see an quicker uptick on intensification with our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks like 850 temps go north of freezing at 6Z Tue....even in areas N and W of the cities. Surface still at or below along and just to the east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM 5pm Monday temps upper 30s and dews in the upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Its the NAM so who cares. But its a complete disaster for DC and even a little west... probably a couple inches that turns to rain/sleet before midnight. Even the I-81 folks don't do that well, western pa jackpots. its the Nam tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yeah, it's the NAM, but it's a ****ty run for most sans those well N and W of the cities. Good run for the 81 corridor and on up into Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM is worst case scenario at this point and we still get a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM is example of "careful what you wish for".Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: NAM is example of "careful what you wish for". Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk No one wishes for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Its the NAM so who cares. But its a complete disaster for DC and even a little west... probably a couple inches that turns to rain/sleet before midnight. Even the I-81 folks don't do that well, western pa jackpots. its the Nam tho NAM for sure always two days behind. For instance: NAM had snow in Va for tomorrow well north of Richmond as per its 18z run yesterday, but this past run no snow in Va at all like the rest of the models. Truly 36 hours out much safer for NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Its the NAM so who cares. But its a complete disaster for DC and even a little west... probably a couple inches that turns to rain/sleet before midnight. Even the I-81 folks don't do that well, western pa jackpots. its the Nam tho The 81 corridor gets crushed actually. That's the problem. If the track is far enough west to get us into the heavy precip. Then you get mixing issues to the east. Hopefully it's just a blip and the real models have the track a little bit further east for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 At hours 63 & 66 the 12z NAM starts the phase a little earlier and weakens the NS low faster than at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 When the nam adjusts to reality...its gonna show lots of snow for us Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nam 4k and 3k look alot better Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm not sure I totally hate what the nam just showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam 4k and 3k look alot better Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk As usual. There are so many NAMs these days you can always find one to like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.