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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Normally by now I'd be leaning more OP than ENS, but this storm is different given its complexity.  I'm 60/40 OP now but the ENS can still be useful to see if the wheels are about to come off.  PSUHoff expressed those concerns in detail on page 27 and that's the only fly in the ointment I see.  The 06z gefs look good to me, in fact a bit better since only one member has that pesky Ohio Valley energy now.

At 72 hours out, the ensemble means have still been out-verifying the ops.  This is especially true if you look at the better ensembles like the NAEFS and, I'd presume, the EPS.

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2 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Its the NAM so who cares. But its a complete disaster for DC and even a little west... probably a couple inches that turns to rain/sleet before midnight. Even the I-81 folks don't do that well, western pa jackpots. its the Nam tho

NAM for sure always two days behind.  For instance: NAM had snow in Va for tomorrow well north of Richmond as per its 18z run yesterday, but this past run no snow in Va at all like the rest of the models.  Truly 36 hours out much safer for NAM.

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5 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Its the NAM so who cares. But its a complete disaster for DC and even a little west... probably a couple inches that turns to rain/sleet before midnight. Even the I-81 folks don't do that well, western pa jackpots. its the Nam tho

The 81 corridor gets crushed actually. That's the problem. If the track is far enough west to get us into the heavy precip. Then you get mixing issues to the east. Hopefully it's just a blip and the real models have the track a little bit further east for you guys.

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