PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 pushoffman is an institution around here. Great analysis and dreadful worrying all in one neat package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: I am not sure we can even call it a trend. Not going to go back through old runs to verify this but if I recall correctly we have seen the handling of the NS feature shift back and forth quit often over the last couple of days. I have to wonder if the goal posts have been somewhat set with the outliers and the solution would hopefully fall in between. If that is indeed the case, even with both outliers we do well in the region with the best possible outcome probably a compromise between the two. At this point I like where we stand and barring any major shifts think our region will do well. I agree to an extent. But the last 24 hours the guidance definitely shifted back to less digging from the northern stream. After a couple days of that going the right way it's degraded a bit. Now if it stops here your right we're fine. But I'm not assuming just because the models didn't have it further north before they won't go that way now. I do agree there is a limit to how far it could go and so the risk is low but that's the biggest risk and I'm always looking out for how we get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The balance works because the northern stream system is west of the coastal low "enough" to exert that west tug we need and pull the storm up along the coast and also pull in precip along the inverted trough connecting the two. But that balance will no longer work in our favor if the northern stream low continues to trend north and ends up near Lake Erie for instance. No matter how the balance goes it would be harder to help us. The increased distance would lower the tug and could allow the low to escape out to sea. Even if the tug is good it's now in the wrong direction pulling the precip more north then northwest and cutting off a healthy Ccb development west of the low. And it's pulling warm air up. I just don't see any net positive in that scenario. The balance your talking about will not work if the primary low gets much further north. That's my worry. I think we are basically on the same page but we are just not communicating it well back and forth so it seems as if we are not. Probably blame me because my communication skills are not the best as my wife so often tells me. So in a nutshell, I do not want to see that trough and NS energy to far north and west nor do I want to see it to far south and east. A good balance would be, if I recall correctly, yesterdays 00Z EPS run. I think from the 00z EPS run there was would be some room to play with. Stray to far from that optimal solution and then we will have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I think we are basically on the same page but we are just not communicating it well back and forth so it seems as if we are not. Probably blame me because my communication skills are not the best as my wife so often tells me. So in a nutshell, I do not want to see that trough and NS energy to far north and west nor do I want to see it to far south and east. A good balance would be, if I recall correctly, yesterdays 00Z EPS run. I think from the 00z EPS run there was would be some room to play with. Stray to far from that optimal solution and then we will have issues. I was totally fine where it was yesterday when the consensus was digging into southern KY or TN. It's now going across Ohio. That's getting close to the furthest north we can live with. So ideally I would like to see a shift back south today or at the least hold it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I was totally fine where it was yesterday when the consensus was digging into southern KY or TN. It's now going across Ohio. That's getting close to the furthest north we can live with. So ideally I would like to see a shift back south today or at the least hold it there. Agreed. A shift back down to KY would be more like yesterday's 12z Euro which was money for us. The players should all be over the raob network for the 12z runs today, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StaffordSnowman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hey everyone, new user here. Just had a couple of questions regarding this storm: 1) What did the 0Z Euro ensembles show in comparison to the operational run? I heard that the ensembles were colder, but the operational really screwed some people over... 2) Looking at the GFS runs, the rain/snow line shown seems to just be the freezing line. Since snow would likely be able to fall and stick at 32-35 degree temperatures, shouldn't that rain/snow line be a little to the east of what is being shown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 39 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: No doubt we are riding a somewhat fine balancing act here. But I do believe we have some play as the different factors balance each other out to a point in regards to the interaction between the NS and the storm. Now if we begin to see solutions that trend somewhat moderately in one direction or the other then that would be of concern. The GFS has trended towards the CMC idea in keeping the NS shortwave more separated and thus further north. I just went back and looked at several runs going back to 0z Friday, and the GFS previously was at least partially phasing the ns energy with the pacific energy under it, resulting in a trough digging further south over the lower Miss River valley. On recent runs, the northern most shortwave is holding back to the NW just enough and it dives in later after the coastal storm has moved north. That scenario possibly would result a more moderate snow event and less p-type issues, and maybe a light snow with the ns trough diving down on Wed. Lots of intricacies here and its hard to know exactly what to root for. Given my location I probably want less phasing and more separation, with a coastal track a bit further offshore. But there is nothing binary about this, and even that could end up being a miss at this latitude, and/or the NS low screws up the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Agreed. A shift back down to KY would be more like yesterday's 12z Euro which was money for us. The players should all be over the raob network for the 12z runs today, correct? 12z's are going to be big no doubt. I feel like the goalposts are already set, it's just these gusty nuisance winds are swirling in the stadium making the kick more difficult than it should be. And of course Lucy is the holder on the kick so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Not unreasonable for 2.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 32 minutes ago, PhineasC said: pushoffman is an institution around here. Great analysis and dreadful worrying all in one neat package. But he really knows his craft, and outside of the good, knowledgeable red taggers, is one I pay close attention to and trust to give good and reasonable analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Pete is subtweeting the Euro it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Not unreasonable for 2.5 days out. All things considered that'd be a win for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 A reminder that windy.tv has the euro data including temps at different levels and precipitation for every location. It is slower than the pay sources, but is great. I'm sure it'll go away at some point. The temp concerns are all lower level. Winds are more easterly than northeasterly which hurts us some. Basically straddles freezing from 850 to the surface around D.C. During the best precip around 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It's not all or nothing. But your getting into a delicate balancing act there. Not enough interaction and the northern stream wave becomes a kicker and the stj system shifts east like the ggem. 95 might actually like that as they "could" get the back edge of the ccb from the coastal and with no Ptype issues that could be good for them. But for us or those in northern va west of 95 that would be a disaster. Without any phasing the developing Ccb will be tight not expansive because it's getting interference on the nw side from the circulation of northern stream low cutting off its moisture feed inland. So there is a double edge sword. Too much phasing at the wrong time and it could delay the bombing of the southern low. Not enough and the southern low bombs but gets kicked east. Is there some magic perfect balance, sure, but I would rather simply get the northern stream system to dig more and not play with that fire. Nothing good can come from it continuing to trend north. Agreed. That northern stream vort is my biggest worry. And has been for days. This is the problem with March snowstorms IMO. Someone in our region is almost always screwed. Our areas tend to do better simply because of our temperature advantage. But for us to the far west it is VERY easy to miss the best precip. I actually think you are in the perfect spot as far as out region is concerned for this event. You have elevation and are far enough east to get in on the heavy precip. Out here we tend to get in on the deform band in the really big storms. But Miller B's with the phase taking place north of VA beach are almost always a screw job here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 What time are the GFS and Euro starting the precipitation into the DC area? Is it still between 7-9 pm Monday or has that changed? And how long is it continuing into Tuesday or Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Pete is subtweeting the Euro it seems. I went to school with him. Pete knows his stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6z GEFS is a beauty and actually increased the snow mean in the area. I'd love to get rid that isobar kink into OH though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: A reminder that windy.tv has the euro data including temps at different levels and precipitation for every location. It is slower than the pay sources, but is great. I'm sure it'll go away at some point. The temp concerns are all lower level. Winds are more easterly than northeasterly which hurts us some. Basically straddles freezing from 850 to the surface around D.C. During the best precip around 4am. Here's the link to Euro snowfall. Just move the dot to you back yard. 10 day snowfall imby is 48.4cm"19"+. Sweet! https://www.windytv.com/?950h,snowAccu,39.201,-76.630,10,m:eKqad1s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 56 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Here's the link to Euro snowfall. Just move the dot to you back yard. 10 day snowfall imby is 48.4cm"19"+. Sweet! https://www.windytv.com/?950h,snowAccu,39.201,-76.630,10,m:eKqad1s Well, that was fun! It gave me 25" in the next 6 days! I suppose I should take that with a grain of salt! Oops..Just realized it was 25 cm. Big difference. Can't get it to change to inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Here's the link to Euro snowfall. Just move the dot to you back yard. 10 day snowfall imby is 48.4cm"19"+. Sweet! https://www.windytv.com/?950h,snowAccu,39.201,-76.630,10,m:eKqad1s That is a pretty cool website... I hope it is accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not unreasonable for 2.5 days out. Seems at odds with the model guidance with the snow max in Winchester. We are significantly lighter on modeled qpf on nearly all models. Add in the convoluted evolution of this storm with that pesky NS low, and it seems we have a good recipe for screwage out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I went to school with him. Pete knows his stuff. That he does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Here's the link to Euro snowfall. Just move the dot to you back yard. 10 day snowfall imby is 48.4cm"19"+. Sweet! https://www.windytv.com/?950h,snowAccu,39.201,-76.630,10,m:eKqad1s Really cool site. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not unreasonable for 2.5 days out. Bullish for Sterling. But when you have run after run of the two major models spitting out a foot plus of snow over our area.. it would be irresponsible not to go big. It is so one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On a more fun note something showing up is the potential for this to be juiced. We're limited by the short duration but all the globals are putting down 1-1.75 qpf across our region in just 12 hours. It seems they develop convective banding along the inverted trough linking the coastal and primary lows. In march that could get fun. Ok this is for fun and to turn things more positive but did anyone see the rediculous 6z para nam. The rates are incredible. The cities do mix but start and end snow but this isn't to analyze the NAM at range, just to point out the possible rates we could see. Now it's the NAM so these are overdone but it's still incredible. These are 3 hour precip rates. This is total qpf and it's from 12 hours. Unreal. And the obligatory snow map for fun only. I propose we shift that 50 miles east to account for NAM over amping and enjoy 20" in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Normally by now I'd be leaning more OP than ENS, but this storm is different given its complexity. I'm 60/40 OP now but the ENS can still be useful to see if the wheels are about to come off. PSUHoff expressed those concerns in detail on page 27 and that's the only fly in the ointment I see. The 06z gefs look good to me, in fact a bit better since only one member has that pesky Ohio Valley energy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 OK. PSU. Lets just lock up the Para NAM and call it a day! 1.1 inches in 3 hours would be more juice than any 3 hours in last years blizzard. Crazy maps there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StaffordSnowman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: 6z GEFS is a beauty and actually increased the snow mean in the area. I'd love to get rid that isobar kink into OH though. What is this showing for the I-95 corridor through northern VA? This area has been on the rain/snow line for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It's not all or nothing. But your getting into a delicate balancing act there. Not enough interaction and the northern stream wave becomes a kicker and the stj system shifts east like the ggem. 95 might actually like that as they "could" get the back edge of the ccb from the coastal and with no Ptype issues that could be good for them. But for us or those in northern va west of 95 that would be a disaster. Without any phasing the developing Ccb will be tight not expansive because it's getting interference on the nw side from the circulation of northern stream low cutting off its moisture feed inland. So there is a double edge sword. Too much phasing at the wrong time and it could delay the bombing of the southern low. Not enough and the southern low bombs but gets kicked east. Is there some magic perfect balance, sure, but I would rather simply get the northern stream system to dig more and not play with that fire. Nothing good can come from it continuing to trend north. A lot of good analysis in here this morning. I'd add that with the 06z GFS, there now reasonably good consensus among the globals for the track of the offshore low. Although it's interesting that the 00z GEPS still had a lot of tracks farther to the east than even the CMC op. All models now appear to agree that the transfer happens later than the 00z GFS was showing. It looks like there are three scenarios on the table: 1) Euro: From what I understand, the northern stream system appears to mess with temps, which is bad for the southern parts of our region. 2) 06z GFS: Northern stream phases enough to keep low onshore, and temps along I95 are still OK (Goldilocks). 3) CMC: Northern stream doesn't phase enough, limiting precip to the west. It's hard to tell what the UKMET was showing, so I'll be optimistic and say it agrees with the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Too bad we taint on the NAM...I've about come to terms with some kind of mix even up here in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.