gymengineer Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Sorry to continue to drive this point, but those of you with a Weatherbell subscription--- does it also put the 0Z GFS surface low position at H84 in the Chesapeake Bay? Again, this is the NCEP crude plot of the surface low at that time: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif View product description Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Mmmmm good.... tasty Reduction compared to 18z. Still several NW solutions. Not complaining about 9" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Sorry to continue to drive this point, but those of you with a Weatherbell subscription--- does it also put the 0Z GFS surface low position at H84 in the Chesapeake Bay? Again, this is the NCEP crude plot of the surface low at that time: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif View product description No. It's like 50-75 east of ocean city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Bob's gonna love this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Reduction compared to 18z. Still several NW solutions. 15 of the 20 members show DC in 6"+... 10 of the 20 in 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gefs definitely tightened up the spread and supports the op well. We're getting close to the end of the useful gefs range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 15 of the 20 members show DC in 6"+... 8 of the 20 in 12"+ Yeah its similar to 18z except there's less ridiculous 1.5'+ solutions. Tightened up the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 15 of the 20 members show DC in 6"+... 8 of the 20 in 12"+ Yes, the gefs tightened everything up. Consensus very supportive of the op. It's a great run. No other way to spin it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Great GFS run. Btw my co-worker, the medium range forecaster on tonight, has a perfect name for this system. The "Cherry Pie" storm, in light of the blooming cherry blossoms (fail) and the fact that it'll be on 3/14 (π day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Time to put more weight in the OP vs ensembles but GEFS MSLP lines up well with the OP (to be expected at this stage). Coalescing around a fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yes, the gefs tightened everything up. Consensus very supportive of the op. It's a great run. No other way to spin it When is the last time we could say that 10 of teh 20 members support over a foot of snow for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: No. It's like 50-75 east of ocean city. So, is only the tropicaltidbits site showing the Bay solution? The other GFS plots I've seen also have the low east of the Delmarva, which would make that 0Z GFS run a sign-on-the-dotted-line run for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, yoda said: When is the last time we could say that 10 of teh 20 members support over a foot of snow for DC? Jan 2016 of course. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: When is the last time we could say that 10 of teh 20 members support over a foot of snow for DC? In March? Not common. But it happened for the January blizzard last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bob's gonna love this look. Now that's a cluster! Stray low in southeast OH, not sure if that's a remnant of the NS wave. But what a grouping right off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hoping we see the 1"+ QPF scenario hold. It's been awhile since we had a wet, tree killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GEFS is super wet too. 1.6" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm going to call it 3/13-14/2017 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I might need some assist on PBP. Not sure I will be home in time and phone at 12% . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree. Look at the ukie surface at 72 and compare to the cmc. The precip field and low in Kentucky on the ukie is very different. CMC having the northern stream low way far north causes the precip shield on the southern low to be compact and far east of all other guidance. That's a good point. The track of the coastal on the Ukie is closer the GGEM, but the GGEM maintains more separation with the northern low even at 96. The Ukie probably still throws a good amount of precip inland, and I think it would be a very good track for the I95 crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: That's a good point. The track of the coastal is closer the GGEM, but the GGEM maintains more separation with the northern low even at 96. The Ukie probably still throws a good amount of precip inland, and I think it would be a very good track for the I95 crowd. The cmc is likely wrong. It's really on an island with handling the ns low. And what makes it even stranger is the vort actually does dig southward but leaves the low behind. Very odd evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 low in Saranac Lake the morning of 3/5/13: 17 degrees. Forecast low in Saranac Lake on Monday morning. -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Euro lows monday morning DCA: 23 IAD: 22 BWI: 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Come on guys, stay on topic. Matt is screwing with u guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 DCA 5pm - 44/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Snow arrives around 9pm in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 pretty far west....dicey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1008mb on SC coast at 72. Very similar to the GFS but slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 850 temp flirts with DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 thermals are kind of gross.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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