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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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Sorry to continue to drive this point, but those of you with a Weatherbell subscription--- does it also put the 0Z GFS surface low position at H84 in the Chesapeake Bay? 

Again, this is the NCEP crude plot of the surface low at that time: 

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2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Sorry to continue to drive this point, but those of you with a Weatherbell subscription--- does it also put the 0Z GFS surface low position at H84 in the Chesapeake Bay? 

Again, this is the NCEP crude plot of the surface low at that time: 

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No. It's like 50-75 east of ocean city. 

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I disagree. Look at the ukie surface at 72 and compare to the cmc. The precip field and low in Kentucky on the ukie is very different. CMC having the northern stream low way far north causes the precip shield on the southern low to be compact and far east of all other guidance. 

That's a good point.  The track of the coastal on the Ukie is closer the GGEM, but the GGEM maintains more separation with the northern low even at 96.  The Ukie probably still throws a good amount of precip inland, and I think it would be a very good track for the I95 crowd.

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1 minute ago, cae said:

That's a good point.  The track of the coastal is closer the GGEM, but the GGEM maintains more separation with the northern low even at 96.  The Ukie probably still throws a good amount of precip inland, and I think it would be a very good track for the I95 crowd.

The cmc is likely wrong. It's really on an island with handling the ns low. And what makes it even stranger is the vort actually does dig southward but leaves the low behind. Very odd evolution. 

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