hosj III Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: Maybe where some deform bands set up? Just a guess. Not sure at all. 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I wonder about those little diamond shaped areas. I'd think those show issues with the precip field. It seems to me like it's just a consequence of the relatively low resolution of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Pretty sure we buy the 0z UKIE run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looking over a couple of other GFS outputs, I'm not sure the low is "meant to be" that far west. There's a huge precip burst where the lowest pressure is shoved towards at h78 and 84. But looking at the isobars, it seems to me that the low center is actually supposed to be just east of Hatteras, then Ocean City, then into NJ on its negatively tilted path. That would help explain the favorable temp profiles despite the track. On the NCEP website, the SLP depiction has the low just east of the Delmarva at 12Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Anyone else catch the mini 700mb low the GFS forms over dc. Probably not real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty sure we buy the 0z UKIE run... How about some details, maps, comparison to prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 After looking at the cmc in detail, I'm tossing it. It's really far north with the ns low and it even becomes detached from the vort digging down. That's a total outlier. Because the low is so far n, there is no interaction with the southern low. That why the precip field is so far east. If there was any support for that outcome I would consider it but there is none right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: How about some details, maps, comparison to prior runs. Trying to compare meteocentre to the French early version of the UKIE is difficult when is upside down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 To reference what I'm talking about with the GFS's surface low depiction, here's the 'interpretation' of the surface from the more crude NCEP website:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gifThat 3 tier banana high up North is textbook....just classic. Something you would see in the classroom when studying this type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Looking over a couple of other GFS outputs, I'm not sure the low is "meant to be" that far west. There's a huge precip burst where the lowest pressure is shoved towards at h78 and 84. But looking at the isobars, it seems to me that the low center is actually supposed to be just east of Hatteras, then Ocean City, then into NJ on its negatively tilted path. That would help explain the favorable temp profiles despite the track. Check the H5 vs the SLP. H5 has a great track. SLP is influenced by the lower level interaction. (I think) it's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Unfortunately, tonight's UKIE doesn't show us where the SLP is at 84... we can guess though... and I think it would be fine for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Check the H5 vs the SLP. H5 has a great track. SLP is influenced by the lower level interaction. (I think) it's fine. It is. Ian on Twitter was expressing concerns about how we "don't do weird well" and he's right. But we are getting awful close to game time. If things hold good through 00z tomorrow then we'll be sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 UK has a 1013 off CHS (with weak 1016 reflection in KY) to a 984 near the cape. Seems to be a classic BM track based on the 24 hour map. Precip inbound at 72 (as far as the precip goes out for U.K.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 $20 says the Euro will be a monster with the UKMET going almost 980 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: UK has a 1013 off CHS (with weak 1016 reflection in KY) to a 984 near the cape. Seems to be a classic BM track based on the 24 hour map. Precip inbound at 72 (as far as the precip goes out for U.K.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ukie looks like a classic track to me. 24 hour gap sucks but I doubt in this case a tucked track ends up at the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 what time is the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yup, the NCEP "crude" surface plot of the 0Z GFS run shows a super surface low track east of the VA Capes and east of Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, EB89 said: Is the Euro at12:30 or 2:30? Starts arriving in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie looks like a classic track to me. 24 hour gap sucks but I doubt in this case a tucked track ends up at the benchmark. Confirms my thoughts that it is east of the 12z run. Not at all what I wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Oh @Bob Chill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, ohwxguy said: Starts arriving in about an hour. Starts running at 12:45am eastern...but once we move the clocks forward tomorrow night, it'll be at 1:45am eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ukie looks closer to the GGEM than the GFS to me. It's a bit to the west of the GGEM, so it probably still turns out well for the I95 crowd. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=2&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Edit: Here are all three models at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Maue posted a 1 hourly loop of the 00z GFS on his twitter if anyone's interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Oh @Bob Chill... Bob's german model would be a huge hit. The wiener schnitzel storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Confirms my thoughts that it is east of the 12z run. Not at all what I wanted to see. I think it would give everyone a decent amount and reduce mixing in areas between 95 and the western shore of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 My biggest fear with late season events - - weak or rotting air mass - - is pretty much off the table. The air mass is insane for mid march. So I don't really care that much if my other fears come to fruition. I'm probably going to mix/flip. So be it. The timing is great. Can't ask for much more. Climo where I am is extremely hostile to mid march snow. So I am fully expecting precip type issues and temp issues. But if I get a few inches + of ripping snow in the late evening at 32-33, I'll be happy. The worst thing is being 48/29 a few hours before onset and waiting for the cold air or relying on dynamics. The low in Albany New York on 3/5/13 was 28. The forecast low Monday morning is 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: My biggest fear with late season events - - weak or rotting air mass - - is pretty much off the table. The air mass is insane for mid march. So I don't really care that much if my other fears come to fruition. I'm probably going to mix/flip. So be it. The timing is great. Can't ask for much more. Climo where I am is extremely hostile to mid march snow. So I am fully expecting precip type issues and temp issues. But if I get a few inches + of ripping snow in the late evening at 32-33, I'll be happy. The worst thing is being 48/29 a few hours before onset and waiting for the cold air or relying on dynamics. The low in Albany New York on 3/5/13 was 28. The forecast low Monday morning is 6. Def agree and excellent post. I too am glad we will have a cold atmosphere ready instead of needing to get one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, cae said: Ukie looks closer to the GGEM than the GFS to me. It's a bit to the west of the GGEM, so it probably still turns out well for the I95 crowd. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=2&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 what is this, really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, cae said: Ukie looks closer to the GGEM than the GFS to me. It's a bit to the west of the GGEM, so it probably still turns out well for the I95 crowd. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=2&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 I disagree. Look at the ukie surface at 72 and compare to the cmc. The precip field and low in Kentucky on the ukie is very different. CMC having the northern stream low way far north causes the precip shield on the southern low to be compact and far east of all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Mmmmm good.... tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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