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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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Just now, Scraff said:

Maybe where some deform bands set up? Just a guess. Not sure at all. 

 

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I wonder about those little diamond shaped areas.  I'd think those show issues with the precip field.

It seems to me like it's just a consequence of the relatively low resolution of the GFS. 

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Looking over a couple of other GFS outputs, I'm not sure the low is "meant to be" that far west. There's a huge precip burst where the lowest pressure is shoved towards at h78 and 84. But looking at the isobars, it seems to me that the low center is actually supposed to be just east of Hatteras, then Ocean City, then into NJ on its negatively tilted path. 

That would help explain the favorable temp profiles despite the track.

On the NCEP website, the SLP depiction has the low just east of the Delmarva at 12Z Tuesday.

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After looking at the cmc in detail, I'm tossing it. It's really far north with the ns low and it even becomes detached from the vort digging down. That's a total outlier. Because the low is so far n, there is no interaction with the southern low. That why the precip field is so far east. If there was any support for that outcome I would consider it but there is none right now. 

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To reference what I'm talking about with the GFS's surface low depiction, here's the 'interpretation' of the surface from the more crude NCEP website:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif


That 3 tier banana high up North is textbook....just classic. Something you would see in the classroom when studying this type of storm.
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9 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Looking over a couple of other GFS outputs, I'm not sure the low is "meant to be" that far west. There's a huge precip burst where the lowest pressure is shoved towards at h78 and 84. But looking at the isobars, it seems to me that the low center is actually supposed to be just east of Hatteras, then Ocean City, then into NJ on its negatively tilted path. 

That would help explain the favorable temp profiles despite the track.

Check the H5 vs the SLP. H5 has a great track. SLP is influenced by the lower level interaction. (I think) it's fine.

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1 minute ago, eurojosh said:

Check the H5 vs the SLP. H5 has a great track. SLP is influenced by the lower level interaction. (I think) it's fine.

It is.  Ian on Twitter was expressing concerns about how we "don't do weird well" and he's right.  But we are getting awful close to game time.  If things hold good through 00z tomorrow then we'll be sitting pretty.

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Ukie looks closer to the GGEM than the GFS to me.  It's a bit to the west of the GGEM, so it probably still turns out well for the I95 crowd.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=2&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

Edit:  Here are all three models at 96 hours.

LbTGxGo.gif

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My biggest fear with late season events - - weak or rotting air mass - - is pretty much off the table. The air mass is insane for mid march. So I don't really care that much if my other fears come to fruition. I'm probably going to mix/flip. So be it. The timing is great.  Can't ask for much more. Climo where I am is extremely hostile to mid march snow. So I am fully expecting precip type issues and temp issues.  But if I get a few inches + of ripping snow in the late evening at 32-33, I'll be happy.  The worst thing is being 48/29 a few hours before onset and waiting for the cold air or relying on dynamics. The low in Albany New York on 3/5/13 was 28. The forecast low Monday morning is 6. 

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

My biggest fear with late season events - - weak or rotting air mass - - is pretty much off the table. The air mass is insane for mid march. So I don't really care that much if my other fears come to fruition. I'm probably going to mix/flip. So be it. The timing is great.  Can't ask for much more. Climo where I am is extremely hostile to mid march snow. So I am fully expecting precip type issues and temp issues.  But if I get a few inches + of ripping snow in the late evening at 32-33, I'll be happy.  The worst thing is being 48/29 a few hours before onset and waiting for the cold air or relying on dynamics. The low in Albany New York on 3/5/13 was 28. The forecast low Monday morning is 6. 

Def agree and excellent post.  I too am glad we will have a cold atmosphere ready instead of needing to get one

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9 minutes ago, cae said:

what is this, really?

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8 minutes ago, cae said:

I disagree. Look at the ukie surface at 72 and compare to the cmc. The precip field and low in Kentucky on the ukie is very different. CMC having the northern stream low way far north causes the precip shield on the southern low to be compact and far east of all other guidance. 

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