Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: Whoa. My area jumped from 1.3" to 2". That would be one epic storm if it happened that way up here My home in Reisterstown gets it good too. Parr's Ridge probably sees 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: TT has areas just east of DC getting 18"+ when it shows them mixing. Anyone know why? Just poor algorithm? Need to look at soundings to see what's actually going on. If someone has the output for BWI and DCA that would be helpful. I usually have to wait to obtain them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: Whoa. My area jumped from 1.3" to 2". That would be one epic storm if it happened that way up here It's fun how you always pretend to be shocked that Parkton is looking good for a given storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Need to look at soundings to see what's actually going on. If someone has the output for BWI and DCA that would be helpful. I usually have to wait to obtain them. Pivotal weather offers soundings for each hr, no need to wait. Just click the location you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Personally for my area. The run is not great. Cuts my QPF substantially. Probably just noise I guess. And the GEM is an utter disaster for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 What do some of the big guns think in here in relation to this GFS driving the primary low up the Appalachians? I am not sure any model has shown this look? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Let the fringed cries begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: Pivotal weather offers soundings for each hr, no need to wait. Just click the location you want to see. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's fun how you always pretend to be shocked that Parkton is looking good for a given storm. Oh I never doubted that it wouldn't be good up here. But it's a big jump from 1.3 to 2, all snow. I'm already planning to take the day off, play with the kiddo and enjoy. Just a matter of how much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'll take it. Not to nitpick, but why is there a 10 inch marker in the lighter pink shaded area over Baltimore? Lol Should have a 15 or something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Canadian is better than 12z, but still on the very eastern fringe of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A lot of qpf bombs showing up across guidance. Even the progressive navgem. I'm staying up all night if it looks like this on Monday. I'm not missing a minute of a storm like this. I'm a bit skeptical of these huge qpf totals. The 500mb evolution is pretty, don't get me wrong, but not "perfect" for a widespread 1-2' sort of event. Seems wetter than I'd guess, particularly for the short GFS duration. 4 minutes ago, Ji said: euro is a much longer duration storm. goes to almost 1am wednesday morning Euro likes to drag things out. Won't be that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks like the southern low gets the energy later and this creates a sharp precip cutoff southwest of DC. Could be a trend to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GGEM came back west but still on the eastern side of the goalposts. 1.1" QPF DC and the 0.5" line runs through Loudoun. No mixing issues for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The run was painful for central and southwest VA so hopefully the Euro evolution is correct. Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 A 21 inch gradient on the GFS in about 15 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I'm a bit skeptical of these huge qpf totals. The 500mb evolution is pretty, don't get me wrong, but not "perfect" for a widespread 1-2' sort of event. Seems wetter than I'd guess, particularly for the short GFS duration. In your theory, would "drier" also translate to "colder" here, or not really related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not to nitpick, but why is there a 10 inch marker in the lighter pink shaded area over Baltimore? Lol Should have a 15 or something! That's just noise. My guess is it has something to do with the bay right there. If you look at all of the model runs for this storm, it's hard an odd output for Baltimore while all around it is significantly higher. Even DC has been shown to have consistently higher totals. Don't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Canadian is better than 12z, but still on the very eastern fringe of guidance. Yeah but it shifted notably back west and the totals are really high just east of 95. It will find its way back over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 When does the Ukie come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Let the fringed cries begin. You have no understanding of how this area can get left out on precip. Sometimes we make up for it with colder temps, but our biggest threat is a later development on the coast and that low to the west is the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, EB89 said: When does the Ukie come out? 20 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 CMC looks a lot better and who doesn't love seeing numbers approaching 2 feet on the GFS, but I have to echo some others that the placement of the low that far west is very worrisome. I would expect a lot more mixing and totals to come way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I am hearing the ukie is east and goes over the benchmark. Does anyone have maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Cmc keeps the ns low intact all the way to basically lake Erie and never phases. I'm going to say that's wrong. This whole thing has the feel that the other globals are just playing catch up to the euro. Just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, EB89 said: Sold! Anyone concerned about the lack of snow just to the SW on this run? Big gradient from like Warrenton to Charlottesville. I dont want that SW edge creeping up to us in the DMV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'll take it. I wonder about those little diamond shaped areas. I'd think those show issues with the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc keeps the ns low intact all the way to basically lake Erie and never phases. I'm going to say that's wrong. This whole thing has the feel that the other globals are just playing catch up to the euro. Just a hunch Yeah, it seems they're all figuring things out and slowly catching up to the Euro. It generally does best with Miller As so maybe it's our new Miller C model. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, EB89 said: Sold! Oh, the tragedy of being a snow lover on the mid-shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I wonder about those little diamond shaped areas. I'd think those show issues with the precip field. Maybe where some deform bands set up? Just a guess. Not sure at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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