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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

TT has areas just east of DC getting 18"+ when it shows them mixing. Anyone know why? Just poor algorithm?

Need to look at soundings to see what's actually going on. If someone has the output for BWI and DCA that would be helpful. I usually have to wait to obtain them. 

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Need to look at soundings to see what's actually going on. If someone has the output for BWI and DCA that would be helpful. I usually have to wait to obtain them. 



Pivotal weather offers soundings for each hr, no need to wait. Just click the location you want to see.
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It's fun how you always pretend to be shocked that Parkton is looking good for a given storm. 



Oh I never doubted that it wouldn't be good up here. But it's a big jump from 1.3 to 2, all snow. I'm already planning to take the day off, play with the kiddo and enjoy. Just a matter of how much at this point.
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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A lot of qpf bombs showing up across guidance. Even the progressive navgem. I'm staying up all night if it looks like this on Monday. I'm not missing a minute of a storm like this. 

I'm a bit skeptical of these huge qpf totals. The 500mb evolution is pretty, don't get me wrong, but not "perfect" for a widespread 1-2' sort of event. Seems wetter than I'd guess, particularly for the short GFS duration.

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro is a much longer duration storm. goes to almost 1am wednesday morning

Euro likes to drag things out. Won't be that long.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I'm a bit skeptical of these huge qpf totals. The 500mb evolution is pretty, don't get me wrong, but not "perfect" for a widespread 1-2' sort of event. Seems wetter than I'd guess, particularly for the short GFS duration.

In your theory, would "drier" also translate to "colder" here, or not really related?

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not to nitpick, but why is there a 10 inch marker in the lighter pink shaded area over Baltimore? Lol Should have a 15 or something!

That's just noise. My guess is it has something to do with the bay right there. If you look at all of the model runs for this storm, it's hard an odd output for Baltimore while all around it is significantly higher. Even DC has been shown to have consistently higher totals. Don't sweat it.

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2 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Canadian is better than 12z, but still on the very eastern fringe of guidance. 

 

 

Canadian 3:10:17.png

Yeah but it shifted notably back west and the totals are really high just east of 95. It will find its way back over the next couple of days.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Let the fringed cries begin. 

You have no understanding of how this area can get left out on precip.  Sometimes we make up for it with colder temps, but our biggest threat is a later development on the coast and that low to the west is the culprit.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc keeps the ns low intact all the way to basically lake Erie and never phases. I'm going to say that's wrong. 

This whole thing has the feel that the other globals are just playing catch up to the euro. Just a hunch 

Yeah, it seems they're all figuring things out and slowly catching up to the Euro. It generally does best with Miller As so maybe it's our new Miller C model. Ha

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