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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The ICON is set up for an absolute gigantic hit. Woah. Of course I can't post a link because everything sucks. 

 

That the one you posted earlier in the medium-range thread?  Or wait...I guess now would be the 12Z...sorry about that.  I know the previous run you said it looked like it was "set up" for a big hit but it was out of range by then.

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Something I would like to point out before the Euro runs. Euro has had a habit of being drier with these type of systems in the somewhat longer ranges only to moisten up within 48-72 hours. Now the Euro has been upgraded fairly recently but can't recall when and/or if we have had any systems since then to get a feel for if this drier tendency is still the case. But looking at the difference in precip totals on the recent runs of the GFS and the Euro (.5-.75 inches less on Euro) both with similar setups I would question if we may be dealing with this once again. If so, don't be surprised if we see precip totals increasing over the coming runs(as well as hopefully the snow if temps allow).

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Definitely some tucked members on the GEFS, hence the snowfall is cut down.  Still it's good to not see any movement towards the disaster CMC solution.

Actually, snowfall is not cut down. If you take away the half inch on the ensemble for the system today, its exactly the same as 06z. 

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12z GEFS is a slight step back from 06z suite. But here's a pro-tip from the world's leading snowmap expert: GEFS doesn't differentiate between mixing and snow. Or at least hte weatherbell maps don't. 

If you look at the maps, GEFS is truly all over the place with different positioning from both the NS energy and the southern piece. Based on this ensemble alone, I'd say the uncertainty is still very high for this system.

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