yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The ICON is set up for an absolute gigantic hit. Woah. Of course I can't post a link because everything sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The ICON is set up for an absolute gigantic hit. Woah. Of course I can't post a link because everything sucks. That the one you posted earlier in the medium-range thread? Or wait...I guess now would be the 12Z...sorry about that. I know the previous run you said it looked like it was "set up" for a big hit but it was out of range by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that would be huge. I forget, how far out does that run Bob? It's showing the wrong map so I deleted the link. Go to metoecentre and click the hr78 panels. Very sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that would be huge. I forget, how far out does that run Bob? To 78 hrs on all 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GEFS ens close to coast. Inland snow, coast mix/rain. DCA taints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The ICON is set up for an absolute gigantic hit. Woah. Of course I can't post a link because everything sucks. Now what's the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: GEFS ens close to coast. Inland snow, coast mix/rain. DCA taints. WxBell is only out to 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now what's the ICON? German Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 ICON runs out to 78 hours. I found this explainer on it: https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html I have no idea how accurate it is, though i think there are scoring metrics here: http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/msl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Something I would like to point out before the Euro runs. Euro has had a habit of being drier with these type of systems in the somewhat longer ranges only to moisten up within 48-72 hours. Now the Euro has been upgraded fairly recently but can't recall when and/or if we have had any systems since then to get a feel for if this drier tendency is still the case. But looking at the difference in precip totals on the recent runs of the GFS and the Euro (.5-.75 inches less on Euro) both with similar setups I would question if we may be dealing with this once again. If so, don't be surprised if we see precip totals increasing over the coming runs(as well as hopefully the snow if temps allow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The ICON is set up for an absolute gigantic hit. Woah. Of course I can't post a link because everything sucks. Send me any links you want and I'll post them. I'll be online thru the euro runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Definitely some tucked members on the GEFS, hence the snowfall is cut down. Still it's good to not see any movement towards the disaster CMC solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Close up on DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Keep in mind with the GEFS inside of 120 hours is it will almost always (if not always) follow pretty close to the op. If the 18z gfs goes east so will the GEFS and on and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Definitely some tucked members on the GEFS, hence the snowfall is cut down. Still it's good to not see any movement towards the disaster CMC solution. Actually, snowfall is not cut down. If you take away the half inch on the ensemble for the system today, its exactly the same as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 A bit of a step back, going from a mean in the 06z run of around 10" for DC to around 8-9" now in the 12z. QPF is higher with the 12z, but mixing brought the snow down. 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, das said: Send me any links you want and I'll post them. I'll be online thru the euro runs... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/dwd_icon_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_078_0000. gif This is the pretty one. Just remove the space before gif. I can only post broken links or the image comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Keep in mind with the GEFS inside of 120 hours is it will almost always (if not always) follow pretty close to the op. If the 18z gfs goes east so will the GEFS and on and on. Didn't know that, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z GEFS is a slight step back from 06z suite. But here's a pro-tip from the world's leading snowmap expert: GEFS doesn't differentiate between mixing and snow. Or at least hte weatherbell maps don't. If you look at the maps, GEFS is truly all over the place with different positioning from both the NS energy and the southern piece. Based on this ensemble alone, I'd say the uncertainty is still very high for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I struggle with colors, would anyone be able to help me out with what the means is showing inch wise for IAD, DCA, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Anybody got a comparison to 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Here ya go, Bob - ETA -Dammit. Trying again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 ^ Still showing an old image. It's the board cache screwing things up. ETA: There it is! That brings back memories of some monsters of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/dwd_icon_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_078_0000. gif This is the pretty one. Just remove the space before gif. I can only post broken links or the image comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Guys -- if you are going to post images, please give some details. Don't just post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 You can access the icon model at this link. When I selected precip I had to play the animation for 1 second and then stop it to be able to go frame by frame. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?mod=dwd_icon&map=na&run=12&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: I struggle with colors, would anyone be able to help me out with what the means is showing inch wise for IAD, DCA, etc? Looks like it's showing 9" for both DCA and IAD. BWI is at 8.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Keep in mind with the GEFS inside of 120 hours is it will almost always (if not always) follow pretty close to the op. If the 18z gfs goes east so will the GEFS and on and on. Right, I almost think we're outside of its useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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