yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 BWI area closing in on 2 feet at 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Where's Bob Chill when you need him? Watching the terps lose. Lol NS low hangs on a little longer so midlevels trended warmer. Still a crushing from the cities west with mix risk. Could be noise. Could be a trend with the midlevels. I'm happy with the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This is an obscene look... just boom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Some really bad analysis in this thread From now until the storm at least, I'm gonna be listening to you, Bob, and PSU exclusively during all main model runs, lol (And I truly appreciate you guy's analysis) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Some really bad analysis in this thread My fault. I got spooked by the 540 line further north. Didn't care for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Soundings at both DCA and BWI look great all the way through... what an epic run... Kuchera showing 1ft+ at both at 90 and still coming down... 10:1 is even higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 00z GFS is pure money. Just about perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ah... hello again Mr. GGEM... nice to see you again... thank you for your return to the fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: My fault. I got spooked by the 540 line further north. Didn't care for that. As did I. 850s are very borderline down my way. You guys are hours north of me, so it makes a big difference at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Part of the reason with the warmer midlevels is lighter precip early on. If that's wrong then it isn't a trend. Just a function of rates. The precip bomb part looks like the euro but further west. It's a pretty sick run. There would def be thundersnow mixed in during the bombing process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's an amazing run, for sure, but the sfc low is still a little bit further west than I want to see it. While the GFS verbatim on this run keeps the cities as all snow, it's notorious for failing to capture warm layers working in above 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I hope the euro puts the stake in the heart of the tn valley low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Northern stream digging less again this run, that part is trending towards the euro. The southern stream is still faster and weaker. GFS has the low half way up the Chesapeake at 84hrs while the 12z Euro still has it over cape hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looking pretty good for NW Burbs of DC, huh? Pivotal gives me 14", so I guess I answered my own question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 DC-BWI crushed 2 feet amounts near BWI according to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Some really bad analysis in this threadUse the force, Luke. I'm only catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: It's an amazing run, for sure, but the sfc low is still a little bit further west than I want to see it. While the GFS verbatim on this run keeps the cities as all snow, it's notorious for failing to capture warm layers working in above 850 mb. Yea, that track is mix risk even for me. Models can say whatever they want. Past history tells a different story. I don't really care about mixing honestly. It's March and I'm not on a hill or mountain. The height of the storm would be absolutely epic for a lot of people. Quarter mile viz and puking. I want a piece of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 TT has areas just east of DC getting 18"+ when it shows them mixing. Anyone know why? Just poor algorithm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 We're now within 72 hours of precip reaching the southern areas of the sub forum. Goalposts continuing to narrow and support a signicant event for a majority of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Sold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, that track is mix risk even for me. Models can say whatever they want. Past history tells a different story. I don't really care about mixing honestly. It's March and I'm not on a hill or mountain. The height of the storm would be absolutely epic for a lot of people. Quarter mile viz and puking. I want a piece of that. This... whoever ends up just on the western side of the RA-SN line will see just epic conditions... I'll risk a little QPF waste to IP to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, that track is mix risk even for me. Models can say whatever they want. Past history tells a different story. I don't really care about mixing honestly. It's March and I'm not on a hill or mountain. The height of the storm would be absolutely epic for a lot of people. Quarter mile viz and puking. I want a piece of that. It drops all of this in basically 12 hours. That's what's kind of amazing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, high risk said: It's an amazing run, for sure, but the sfc low is still a little bit further west than I want to see it. While the GFS verbatim on this run keeps the cities as all snow, it's notorious for failing to capture warm layers working in above 850 mb. Thanks for all of the insights. I guess the NAM coughed up a hairball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 qpf last four runs of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: TT has areas just east of DC getting 18"+ when it shows them mixing. Anyone know why? Just poor algorithm? You can mix for a bit and still get a ton of snow if the storm is dropping 2+ inches of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Whoa. My area jumped from 1.3" to 2". That would be one epic storm if it happened that way up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: It drops all of this in basically 12 hours. That's what's kind of amazing to me. A lot of qpf bombs showing up across guidance. Even the progressive navgem. I'm staying up all night if it looks like this on Monday. I'm not missing a minute of a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It drops all of this in basically 12 hours. That's what's kind of amazing to me. euro is a much longer duration storm. goes to almost 1am wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The GFS and Euro are both showing significant wind near the bay... any chance the eastern counties end up with a bliz warn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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