Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Where's Bob Chill when you need him?

Watching the terps lose. Lol

NS low hangs on a little longer so midlevels trended warmer. Still a crushing from the cities west with mix risk. Could be noise. Could be a trend with the midlevels. I'm happy with the run. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Part of the reason with the warmer midlevels is lighter precip early on. If that's wrong then it isn't a trend. Just a function of rates. 

The precip bomb part looks like the euro but further west. It's a pretty sick run. There would def be thundersnow mixed in during the bombing process. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Northern stream digging less again this run, that part is trending towards the euro.  The southern stream is still faster and weaker.  GFS has the low half way up the Chesapeake at 84hrs while the 12z Euro still has it over cape hat

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, high risk said:

  It's an amazing run, for sure, but the sfc low is still a little bit further west than I want to see it.    While the GFS verbatim on this run keeps the cities as all snow, it's notorious for failing to capture warm layers working in above 850 mb.

Yea, that track is mix risk even for me. Models can say whatever they want. Past history tells a different story. I don't really care about mixing honestly. It's March and I'm not on a hill or mountain. The height of the storm would be absolutely epic for a lot of people. Quarter mile viz and puking. I want a piece of that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, that track is mix risk even for me. Models can say whatever they want. Past history tells a different story. I don't really care about mixing honestly. It's March and I'm not on a hill or mountain. The height of the storm would be absolutely epic for a lot of people. Quarter mile viz and puking. I want a piece of that. 

This... whoever ends up just on the western side of the RA-SN line will see just epic conditions... I'll risk a little QPF waste to IP to see that :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, that track is mix risk even for me. Models can say whatever they want. Past history tells a different story. I don't really care about mixing honestly. It's March and I'm not on a hill or mountain. The height of the storm would be absolutely epic for a lot of people. Quarter mile viz and puking. I want a piece of that. 

It drops all of this in basically 12 hours. That's what's kind of amazing to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

  It's an amazing run, for sure, but the sfc low is still a little bit further west than I want to see it.    While the GFS verbatim on this run keeps the cities as all snow, it's notorious for failing to capture warm layers working in above 850 mb.

Thanks for all of the insights.

I guess the NAM coughed up a hairball. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WxUSAF said:

It drops all of this in basically 12 hours. That's what's kind of amazing to me. 

A lot of qpf bombs showing up across guidance. Even the progressive navgem. I'm staying up all night if it looks like this on Monday. I'm not missing a minute of a storm like this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...