Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Totally get the NAM bashing, and it's true that regional models really shouldn't be run out to 84 hours. But as has been noted in a few posts, the parallel NAM looks much more like the globals with the track of its surface low. This new version, which goes live later next week, has a lot of improvements (especially in the nest). I'm not going to b.s. anyone and say that it's going to be consistently good at day 3, but it will be better. In this event, I think it's worth noting that the para NAM flips a lot of the area to sleet, despite a favorable sfc track and the 850s seemingly holding. I think this is an outcome that is sitting in the back of a lot of our minds. Yea, it's one of the reasons why 'Day '07 is probably a top CIPS analog. Pellets could ruin the event for a lot of people and it's probably one of the reasons why the SV snow maps are so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ian said: It actually snifs out things even at range every now and then. In a lot of ways it's like most things.. if people know how to use it right they can use it fairly well. Many just treat it like part of a meal though. Thanks and agreed. It has its problems/biases like every other model. I'd like to think many here know and understand this. Its another tool in the weather shed, and ok to use. Did pretty well w/ last years blizz. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, it's one of the reasons why 'Day '07 is probably a top CIPS analog. Pellets could ruin the event for a lot of people and it's probably one of the reasons why the SV snow maps are so low. This is mostly banter but I was in Harrisburg PA during that storm and to echo Bob's earlier comments, it was epic. Up there, it was 10-12" of snow followed by 2" of sleet which turned into concrete on top. Schools were shut down for the whole week, which is way more rare up there than it is down here. I can't imagine how the DC metro would react to something like that, though as many have stated, melting will occur relatively faster in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, high risk said: Totally get the NAM bashing, and it's true that regional models really shouldn't be run out to 84 hours. But as has been noted in a few posts, the parallel NAM looks much more like the globals with the track of its surface low. This new version, which goes live later next week, has a lot of improvements (especially in the nest). I'm not going to b.s. anyone and say that it's going to be consistently good at day 3, but it will be better. In this event, I think it's worth noting that the para NAM flips a lot of the area to sleet, despite a favorable sfc track and the 850s seemingly holding. I think this is an outcome that is sitting in the back of a lot of our minds. looking forward to seeing how it does moving forward. Not all models had 500 and surface matching up perfectly, so I think it fair to say they all will continue to correct. Should start to close in by 12z tomorrow and will have goalposts to work from. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Let's just assume IP is a given for most areas. This still could be epic for March. It's still frozen and beats plain rain. I would prefer a longer duration storm over thump and bolt. I'm hoping for a stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, it's one of the reasons why 'Day '07 is probably a top CIPS analog. Pellets could ruin the event for a lot of people and it's probably one of the reasons why the SV snow maps are so low. SV was so low because it apparently is not seeing snow accumulating when the temp is 32.1+ degrees. The entire column was fine on the EURO. The 18z GEFS was excellent for the entire column... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ian said: It actually snifs out things even at range every now and then. In a lot of ways it's like most things.. if people know how to use it right they can use it fairly well. Many just treat it like part of a meal though. I like to use it to get an idea of what the meso scale features of a system might look like. But I never rely on it for the location of anything. I sort of get an idea of the dynamics from it then superimpose it onto the location of the consensus from the globals. Until inside 48 hours when the high res stuff can start weighing in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, high risk said: Totally get the NAM bashing, and it's true that regional models really shouldn't be run out to 84 hours. But as has been noted in a few posts, the parallel NAM looks much more like the globals with the track of its surface low. This new version, which goes live later next week, has a lot of improvements (especially in the nest). I'm not going to b.s. anyone and say that it's going to be consistently good at day 3, but it will be better. In this event, I think it's worth noting that the para NAM flips a lot of the area to sleet, despite a favorable sfc track and the 850s seemingly holding. I think this is an outcome that is sitting in the back of a lot of our minds. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 One take away from the NAM is how juiced this could be. Some 8" rates in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Let's just assume IP is a given for most areas. This still could be epic for March. It's still frozen and beats plain rain. I would prefer a longer duration storm over thump and bolt. I'm hoping for a stall. As the old saying goes, 'all the best ones mix'... at least along and just east of 95. I'm under no delusion that just east of the fall line doesn't mix for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Through 48 I see no big changes. SS low is a bit further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gone all day. Did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Doesn't look anymore like the Euro with the southern stream than 18z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NS is bit further N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 75 1008mb SLP over of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks to me the low is further east northeast at 69. Instead of CHS, it is more closer to MYR. Looks a little warmer with the 850 line further north than previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 78 1004mb SLP over HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 850 line certainly further NW than 18z at 72 with precipitation about to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 QPF bomb east of the 850 line doesn't look as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Where's Bob Chill when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The low is really cranking at 78 as it is near Hatteras. One would think that deform band to the northwest would be more expansive than what the GFS is depicting. Pretty consolidated imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Lol. It's fine at 81 hours verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 DC 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Soundings on Pivotal are all snow at 78 at both DCA and BWI... Edit: and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 InstantWeatherMaps giving the DC area 12-16" by 87 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 so much panic in these threads....and then...wow...DC 12 plus inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I do not know what everyone is worry about looking at the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Some really bad analysis in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Thermals look fine for cities. Western precip a little less this run, but its just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wow, rates look insane. +7" in 6 hours around DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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