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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

Totally get the NAM bashing, and it's true that regional models really shouldn't be run out to 84 hours.    But as has been noted in a few posts, the parallel NAM looks much more like the globals with the track of its surface low.    This new version, which goes live later next week, has a lot of improvements (especially in the nest).     I'm not going to b.s. anyone and say that it's going to be consistently good at day 3, but it will be better.     

In this event, I think it's worth noting that the para NAM flips a lot of the area to sleet, despite a favorable sfc track and the 850s seemingly holding.      I think this is an outcome that is sitting in the back of a lot of our minds.

 

Yea, it's one of the reasons why 'Day '07 is probably a top CIPS analog.  Pellets could ruin the event for a lot of people and it's probably one of the reasons why the SV snow maps are so low.

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5 minutes ago, Ian said:

It actually snifs out things even at range every now and then. In a lot of ways it's like most things.. if people know how to use it right they can use it fairly well. Many just treat it like part of a meal though. 

Thanks and agreed.  It has its problems/biases like every other model.  I'd like to think many here know and understand this.

Its another tool in the weather shed, and ok to use.  Did pretty well w/ last years blizz.

Nut

 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, it's one of the reasons why 'Day '07 is probably a top CIPS analog.  Pellets could ruin the event for a lot of people and it's probably one of the reasons why the SV snow maps are so low.

This is mostly banter but I was in Harrisburg PA during that storm and to echo Bob's earlier comments, it was epic.  Up there, it was 10-12" of snow followed by 2" of sleet which turned into concrete on top.  Schools were shut down for the whole week, which is way more rare up there than it is down here. I can't imagine how the DC metro would react to something like that, though as many have stated, melting will occur relatively faster in March.

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7 minutes ago, high risk said:

Totally get the NAM bashing, and it's true that regional models really shouldn't be run out to 84 hours.    But as has been noted in a few posts, the parallel NAM looks much more like the globals with the track of its surface low.    This new version, which goes live later next week, has a lot of improvements (especially in the nest).     I'm not going to b.s. anyone and say that it's going to be consistently good at day 3, but it will be better.     

In this event, I think it's worth noting that the para NAM flips a lot of the area to sleet, despite a favorable sfc track and the 850s seemingly holding.      I think this is an outcome that is sitting in the back of a lot of our minds.

 

looking forward to seeing how it does moving forward.

Not all models had 500 and surface matching up perfectly, so I think it fair to say they all will continue to correct.  Should start to close in by 12z tomorrow and will have goalposts to work from.

Nut

 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, it's one of the reasons why 'Day '07 is probably a top CIPS analog.  Pellets could ruin the event for a lot of people and it's probably one of the reasons why the SV snow maps are so low.

SV was so low because it apparently is not seeing snow accumulating when the temp is 32.1+ degrees.  The entire column was fine on the EURO.  The 18z GEFS was excellent for the entire column...

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8 minutes ago, Ian said:

It actually snifs out things even at range every now and then. In a lot of ways it's like most things.. if people know how to use it right they can use it fairly well. Many just treat it like part of a meal though. 

I like to use it to get an idea of what the meso scale features of a system might look like. But I never rely on it for the location of anything. I sort of get an idea of the dynamics from it then superimpose it onto the location of the consensus from the globals. Until inside 48 hours when the high res stuff can start weighing in a bit. 

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11 minutes ago, high risk said:

Totally get the NAM bashing, and it's true that regional models really shouldn't be run out to 84 hours.    But as has been noted in a few posts, the parallel NAM looks much more like the globals with the track of its surface low.    This new version, which goes live later next week, has a lot of improvements (especially in the nest).     I'm not going to b.s. anyone and say that it's going to be consistently good at day 3, but it will be better.     

In this event, I think it's worth noting that the para NAM flips a lot of the area to sleet, despite a favorable sfc track and the 850s seemingly holding.      I think this is an outcome that is sitting in the back of a lot of our minds.

 

Thanks for the info. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Let's just assume IP is a given for most areas.  This still could be epic for March.  It's still frozen and beats plain rain. I would prefer a longer duration storm over thump and bolt.  I'm hoping for a stall.

As the old saying goes, 'all the best ones mix'... at least along and just east of 95.  I'm under no delusion that just east of the fall line doesn't mix for a few hours.

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