Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, high risk said: Yes, showers and flurries to the tune of 1.5" of liquid. We got 13" of snow in about 30 seconds, then dryslotted. Looks like a classic Naming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Meh. It's the NAM. But it is showing a lot of what I am worried about. Then I'm completely lost as to what you're worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Really? It's a great run for you methinks. You stay cold and precip heavy. I never looked at a snow map. I was looking at 500 and 850 levels. And looking at those levels I have no idea how it ends up with that precip map. But I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: I never looked at a snow map. I was looking at 500 and 850 levels. And looking at those levels I have no idea how it ends up with that precip map. But I will take it 850 was never a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Then I'm completely lost as to what you're worried about. Dont mind me. I am on my usual Friday night bender. Carry on. Just odd to me to see the 500 ULL over the lakes and us getting hammered like that. I guess I need to pay some attention to the surface. Or just not post any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hot off the press from an NCEP met: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Para 12k NAM is east of OP NAM, Weatherbell maps are real snowy for west of the Bay, although it's mixy for the I-95 corridor, 32f line I-95 or just east during the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I never looked at a snow map. I was looking at 500 and 850 levels. And looking at those levels I have no idea how it ends up with that precip map. But I will take it It just dumps for nine hours straight. Would probably be epic even if we mixed. But now I'm discussing a future scenario where the 78hr NAM is relevant, so I'll stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: Para 12k NAM is east of OP NAM, Weatherbell maps are real snowy for west of the Bay. Can you link this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol. Don't mind him, he's always pretty terrible with analysis. Lovable but terrible. But again, as you said earlier people should know better with the NAM. Might have to remind them again. I will be so happy if the GFS holds serve and the NAM is garbage and you are correct. Still, the NAM seems to do something naughty with the 500 mb low. Everyone go chew your fingernails til GFS is here. 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol. Don't mind him, he's always pretty terrible with analysis. Lovable but terrible. But again, as you said earlier people should know better with the NAM. Might have to remind them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM never loses the Ohio Valley energy...drags everything uber far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, PDIII said: I think you have to pay for that. Found it. DC still gets a couple hours of mix/rain. But the snowfall output is crazy out west. Too bad it's 84 hr NAM and won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Parallel NAM is money: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The NAM 12k parallel is the one which is about to go operational, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Way too much NAM analysis in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The NAM 12k parallel is the one which is about to go operational, right? The 12km parallel becomes the operational "parent" (12 km) NAM, and the 3km parallel replaces the 4 km as the NAM CONUS nest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 lol it's the NAM at 81 hours come on guys. Honestly I took it as a positive. Consider how over amped it tends to be. Then how much further north it is with the northern stream (way out of line with other guidance) all that and it still manages some snow into the cities and a rediculous dump just nw of 95. This is almost a worst case scenario and it's not that far from working out even then. To me that shows how good a setup we have. It's hard for even the NAM at range to screw it up. Unfortunately not impossible. It was a slight improvement from 18z. Expect it to fall in line as it gets into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Way too much NAM analysis in here. Every single storm. I'm willing to maybe say hr54 is ok but even then. It's tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, high risk said: The 12km parallel becomes the operational "parent" (12 km) NAM, and the 3km parallel replaces the 4 km as the NAM CONUS nest. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hot off the press from an NCEP met: QPF heavy... DCA nicely around 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Every single storm. I'm willing to maybe say hr54 is ok but even then. It's tiresome. There's almost no point to analyzing it before like the 12z Sunday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Parallel NAM is money: The low doesn't look as much like a Banana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Right now, the NAM seems to be the further NW with everything. The rest of the globals GFS/UKMET/EURO and their ensembles have been so locked in on the coastal solution that it lends far more credence to them. It does this all the time. It's not supposed to be used for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Ian said: It does this all the time. It's not supposed to be used for this. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. We need to convince NCEP to deliver the NAM after the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ian said: We need to convince NCEP to deliver the NAM after the Euro. Or they could just stop running it past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ian said: It does this all the time. It's not supposed to be used for this. Like I said considering everything it did wrong and still ended up close for DC and an epic dump just west I thought it was a positive. The NAM gonna nam at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Or they could just stop running it past 48 hours. It actually snifs out things even at range every now and then. In a lot of ways it's like most things.. if people know how to use it right they can use it fairly well. Many just treat it like part of a meal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Totally get the NAM bashing, and it's true that regional models really shouldn't be run out to 84 hours. But as has been noted in a few posts, the parallel NAM looks much more like the globals with the track of its surface low. This new version, which goes live later next week, has a lot of improvements (especially in the nest). I'm not going to b.s. anyone and say that it's going to be consistently good at day 3, but it will be better. In this event, I think it's worth noting that the para NAM flips a lot of the area to sleet, despite a favorable sfc track and the 850s seemingly holding. I think this is an outcome that is sitting in the back of a lot of our minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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