SLPressure Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, yoda said: So who's ready for the 00z NAM? I am hoping that tonight's GFS will come into better alignment with the EURO While we can't take it too seriously just yet, when does it initialize? 18z GFS was pretty decent. Do we need for it to"align"? Or is that just for continuity with the individual models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, SLPressure said: While we can't take it too seriously just yet, when does it initialize? 18z GFS was pretty decent. Do we need for it to"align"? Or is that just for continuity with the individual models? It'll be another 50 minutes or more before it's out as far as Mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, SLPressure said: While we can't take it too seriously just yet, when does it initialize? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @RDM - the southern vort is pretty weak but distinct as the ns vort/low approaches. The amplification in front of the ns vort sorta kick starts the southern energy to get organized and gain latitude. I've posted that they are independent but that isn't exactly true. The reason the southern energy turns into a storm before any phase is because the northern vort tugs on it and draws it up and in. So in that respect they are "connected". The ultimate solution would be a phase into a single closed upper level low to our south or southwest ( but not too far west or it all runs inland). That doesn't appear likely at all and it's fine. What we're seeing now is the southern vort getting pulled and absorbed into the northern stream without a clean phase. And that's fine too because the southern storm becomes really strong before it passes our latitude. Because the northern stream is tugging on it, the precip field to the nw of the low is expansive. Without the tug you get a 12z cmc solution. Really, really great analysis, Bob. The one easy point to make at this time is that it will snow on Monday night into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The mean on the 2100 SREF plumes up to 12z Tuesday morning is 6.5 at DCA, though there's quite a spread spanning a range of 0 to 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It'll be another 50 minutes or more before it's out as far as Mon night. 3 minutes ago, eurojosh said: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/ Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Most storms fall into a hybrid Miller A/B.We tend to look at a "solid" Miller B as one that screws us.A true Miller A is a rare breed.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Really, really great analysis, Bob. The one easy point to make at this time is that it will snow on Monday night into Tuesday. For you yes. And I am not trying to be a downer. But the CMC solution or at least a variation of it is still on the table for those of us to the west. If the Northern vort is weaker. We could get screwed badly out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 If the Euro solution comes close to, or outright verifies, then thundersnow is a good possibility. The dynamics on that scenario are pretty robust. Even the 18z GFS OP would give some lightning to people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: For you yes. And I am not trying to be a downer. But the CMC solution or at least a variation of it is still on the table for those of us to the west. If the Northern vort is weaker. We could get screwed badly out here. Now that we are getting close to short range you should feel pretty comfortable. Trends across the board are taking your worst case option off the table. I would be very surprised if the cmc does it again. I doubt that any global will trend back towards a swing and miss between the streams. My yard's worst case scenario is on the table more than anything. And that includes a lot of rain. At least you'll be all snow almost guaranteed. My rain is your heavy snow but if you root for that then you're dead to me. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 50 minutes ago, eurojosh said: What's interesting about that is, last year's was a storm the models caught on to from 7-10 days out, and the details hardly wavered. Which suggests that the model algorithms account more for current data than for climo and past history. The models don't account for "climo and past history". Well, ok, MOS is entirely based on past history, but the models themselves are solving tons of complex equations that represent all of the processes within the atmosphere and at its interface with the land and water. There is no climatology built in to the actual model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Most storms fall into a hybrid Miller A/B. We tend to look at a "solid" Miller B as one that screws us. A true Miller A is a rare breed. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk James Miller agrees with you. The Miller A often does not affect coastal stations according to his paper in 1946. Miller B far more common. By definition this potential event is a classic Miller B which originates from an old cyclone along the SE coast. There is no refence to a hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now that we are getting close to short range you should feel pretty comfortable. Trends across the board are taking your worst case option off the table. I would be very surprised if the cmc does it again. I doubt that any global will trend back towards a swing and miss between the streams. My yard's worst case scenario is on the table more than anything. And that includes a lot of rain. At least you'll be all snow almost guaranteed. My rain is your heavy snow but if you root for that then you're dead to me. Lol You know me Bob. I want us all to be buried. You know your climo as well as I know mine. Some mixing, especially in March, has to be expected. Even out here I would be shocked if we stayed all snow honestly. I do feel better knowing that you are confident in disregarding the jumper screw job though. The air mass seems cold enough to me for just about all of us to avoid a rain storm. The Eastern Shore probably has to worry about it. Actually, Its looks like a pretty "normal" coastal snowstorm temperature wise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You know me Bob. I want us all to be buried. You know your climo as well as I know mine. Some mixing, especially in March, has to be expected. Even out here I would be shocked if we stayed all snow honestly. I do feel better knowing that you are confident in disregarding the jumper screw job though. The air mass seems cold enough to me for just about all of us to avoid a rain storm. The Eastern Shore probably has to worry about it. Actually, Its looks like a pretty "normal" coastal snowstorm temperature wise to me. One thing I'm confident of is that if anything falls out here it will be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Wxhoov said: Not that its all that important at this point but shouldnt the nam be running soon! It's running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, high risk said: The models don't account for "climo and past history". Well, ok, MOS is entirely based on past history, but the models themselves are solving tons of complex equations that represent all of the processes within the atmosphere and at its interface with the land and water. There is no climatology built in to the actual model. Thank you for that informative response... that is very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 56 minutes ago, yoda said: So who's ready for the 00z NAM? I am hoping that tonight's GFS will come into better alignment with the EURO I'm not. I'm sold on the GFS/UKMET/EURO...but the NAM always seems to do something wonky with complex setups like this until it's inside of 60 HRs. Don't think the 00z NAM will be something we like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm not. I'm sold on the GFS/UKMET/EURO...but the NAM always seems to do something wonky with complex setups like this until it's inside of 60 HRs. Don't think the 00z NAM will be something we like. I was joking about the NAM... Bob said not to talk about the long range NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: I was joking about the NAM... Bob said not to talk about the long range NAM Yup...just my standard disclaimer for when the NAM shoves the storm into Detroit or somehow shears it apart over the Bahamas, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yeah NAM is wonky I guess. Much more inland then the GFS/EURO/UKMET/CMC. Looks like more rain. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The NAM stinks, it brings the 850 mb low inland and NW of us and rains us. This is the 81 hr NAM but still, it is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yikes, NAM is a buzz kill. Thank the Gods it the NAM It stabs us in the soft underbelly with flurries, showers and a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yikes, NAM is a buzz kill. Thank the Gods it the NAM That's exactly how it looked at 18Z, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Meh. It's the NAM. But it is showing a lot of what I am worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'd still tentatively lock up this buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Meh. It's the NAM. But it is showing a lot of what I am worried about. Really? It's a great run for you methinks. You stay cold and precip heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, winterymix said: It stabs us in the soft underbelly with flurries, showers and a dry slot. Yes, showers and flurries to the tune of 1.5" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Right now, the NAM seems to be the further NW with everything. The rest of the globals GFS/UKMET/EURO and their ensembles have been so locked in on the coastal solution that it lends far more credence to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Right now, the NAM seems to be the further NW with everything. The rest of the globals GFS/UKMET/EURO and their ensembles have been so locked in on the coastal solution that it lends far more credence to them. Also, it's the NAM. And that lends far more credence to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, high risk said: Yes, showers and flurries to the tune of 1.5" of liquid. Lol. Don't mind him, he's always pretty terrible with analysis. Lovable but terrible. But again, as you said earlier people should know better with the NAM. Might have to remind them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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