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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

So who's ready for the 00z NAM?

I am hoping that tonight's GFS will come into better alignment with the EURO

While we can't take it too seriously just yet, when does it initialize?

18z GFS was pretty decent.  Do we need for it to"align"? Or is that just for continuity with the individual models?

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2 minutes ago, SLPressure said:

While we can't take it too seriously just yet, when does it initialize?

18z GFS was pretty decent.  Do we need for it to"align"? Or is that just for continuity with the individual models?

It'll be another 50 minutes or more before it's out as far as Mon night.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@RDM - the southern vort is pretty weak but distinct as the ns vort/low approaches. The amplification in front of the ns vort sorta kick starts the southern energy to get organized and gain latitude. 

I've posted that they are independent but that isn't exactly true. The reason the southern energy turns into a storm before any phase is because the northern vort tugs on it and draws it up and in. So in that respect they are "connected".

The ultimate solution would be a phase into a single closed upper level low to our south or southwest ( but not too far west or it all runs inland). That doesn't appear likely at all and it's fine. What we're seeing now is the southern vort getting pulled and absorbed into the northern stream without a clean phase. And that's fine too because the southern storm becomes really strong before it passes our latitude. Because the northern stream is tugging on it, the precip field to the nw of the low is expansive. Without the tug you get a 12z cmc solution. 

 

Really, really great analysis, Bob. The one easy point to make at this time is that it will snow on Monday night into Tuesday.

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6 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Really, really great analysis, Bob. The one easy point to make at this time is that it will snow on Monday night into Tuesday.

For you yes. And I am not trying to be a downer. But the CMC solution or at least a variation of it is still on the table for those of us to the west. If the Northern vort is weaker. We could get screwed badly out here. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

For you yes. And I am not trying to be a downer. But the CMC solution or at least a variation of it is still on the table for those of us to the west. If the Northern vort is weaker. We could get screwed badly out here. 

Now that we are getting close to short range you should feel pretty comfortable. Trends across the board are taking your worst case option off the table. I would be very surprised if the cmc does it again. I doubt that any global will trend back towards a swing and miss between the streams. 

My yard's worst case scenario is on the table more than anything. And that includes a lot of rain. At least you'll be all snow almost guaranteed. My rain is your heavy snow but if you root for that then you're dead to me. Lol

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50 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

What's interesting about that is, last year's was a storm the models caught on to from 7-10 days out, and the details hardly wavered. Which suggests that the model algorithms account more for current data than for climo and past history.

         The models don't account for "climo and past history".     Well, ok,  MOS is entirely based on past history, but the models themselves are solving tons of complex equations that represent all of the processes within the atmosphere and at its interface with the land and water.     There is no climatology built in to the actual model.

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18 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Most storms fall into a hybrid Miller A/B.

We tend to look at a "solid" Miller B as one that screws us.

A true Miller A is a rare breed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

James Miller agrees with you. The Miller A often does not affect coastal stations according to his paper in 1946.  Miller B far more common.  By definition this potential event is a classic Miller B which originates from an old cyclone along the SE coast. There is no refence to a hybrid.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Now that we are getting close to short range you should feel pretty comfortable. Trends across the board are taking your worst case option off the table. I would be very surprised if the cmc does it again. I doubt that any global will trend back towards a swing and miss between the streams. 

My yard's worst case scenario is on the table more than anything. And that includes a lot of rain. At least you'll be all snow almost guaranteed. My rain is your heavy snow but if you root for that then you're dead to me. Lol

You know me Bob. I want us all to be buried. You know your climo as well as I know mine. Some mixing, especially in March, has to be expected. Even out here I would be shocked if we stayed all snow honestly. I do feel better knowing that you are confident in disregarding the jumper screw job though. The air mass seems cold enough to me for just about all of us to avoid a rain storm. The Eastern Shore probably has to worry about it. Actually, Its looks like a pretty "normal" coastal snowstorm temperature wise to me.

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You know me Bob. I want us all to be buried. You know your climo as well as I know mine. Some mixing, especially in March, has to be expected. Even out here I would be shocked if we stayed all snow honestly. I do feel better knowing that you are confident in disregarding the jumper screw job though. The air mass seems cold enough to me for just about all of us to avoid a rain storm. The Eastern Shore probably has to worry about it. Actually, Its looks like a pretty "normal" coastal snowstorm temperature wise to me.

One thing I'm confident of is that if anything falls out here it will be snow

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12 minutes ago, high risk said:

         The models don't account for "climo and past history".     Well, ok,  MOS is entirely based on past history, but the models themselves are solving tons of complex equations that represent all of the processes within the atmosphere and at its interface with the land and water.     There is no climatology built in to the actual model.

Thank you for that informative response... that is very interesting

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56 minutes ago, yoda said:

So who's ready for the 00z NAM?

I am hoping that tonight's GFS will come into better alignment with the EURO

I'm not.  I'm sold on the GFS/UKMET/EURO...but the NAM always seems to do something wonky with complex setups like this until it's inside of 60 HRs.  Don't think the 00z NAM will be something we like.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm not.  I'm sold on the GFS/UKMET/EURO...but the NAM always seems to do something wonky with complex setups like this until it's inside of 60 HRs.  Don't think the 00z NAM will be something we like.

I was joking about the NAM... Bob said not to talk about the long range NAM ;)

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Right now, the NAM seems to be the further NW with everything.  The rest of the globals GFS/UKMET/EURO and their ensembles have been so locked in on the coastal solution that it lends far more credence to them.

Also, it's the NAM. And that lends far more credence to them.

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