yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I am gonna delete this post. we don't need that logic in here. It gets the weenies riled up I gotta tell you that the euro has really got me excited. I sooooooo want to see that low in the Tn valley weaken or disappear. I think our low could really get going if it weren't for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nice tightening from 12z. Just excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Holy Cow Yoda. That's a huge jump from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes, and that is a great point, the time stamp. The CMC threw out that, at the time, crazy solution for Sunday at about 144-120 hrs, somewhere in there. By this timeframe the others also were killing it off. You're correct. We are about 60 hours from a point of no return. I'm glad you posted that. Gives me a better confidence. This is not the signature of a storm likely to miss us to the east. Could it sure but there is very little evidence to worry about that. For 95 I'm still way more worried about a west trend. But given this track DC actually has an advantage over NYC and Boston there. Look how much closer to danger they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Nice tightening from 12z. Just excellent That's a near perfect mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z also dropped ALL of the far NW lows from 12z. Just excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 18z also dropped ALL of the far NW lows from 12z. Just excellent. Was just about to post this as well... very nice to see that... leads me to believe that its headed toward a EURO-type solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Check this out. 12z had a cluster in OH 18z doesn't have a single one making it north of KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z also dropped ALL of the far NW lows from 12z. Just excellent. Ehh, I count 8 NW track city screwjobs, more than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Keeping that NS vort at our below our latitude is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 And before I get a bunch of posts thinking I said it will change to rain that's the bigger threat but unless something goes seriously wrong any change to non snow would come after a very good thump first. And even that may not happen if the east 2/3 of the guidance envelope is accurate. If your west of the fall line your even more safe. I would be worried if I was 30 miles east of 95 but it's mid march and when do they not have to worry about mix there? I totally get it. I feel it too. The anxiety. It's been such crap all year. Wanting this to hurry up. Finding rediculous nonsense to worry about. But things look about as good as we can hope right now. When you have to think hard to figure out what the bigger threat to not getting at least a 6-12" dump is, then things are pretty good. There is always a chance it goes wrong. But there is no actual sign of that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Check this out. 12z had a cluster in OH 18z doesn't have a single one making it north of KY That low transfer position is nearly perfect. Get it to happen from east Tn, and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Since people have been asking about the models leading up to last year's blizzard, I'm putting this link here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/25/the-forecast-for-snowzilla-was-stellar-in-almost-every-way/?utm_term=.ba66ed46858b It has a concise summary of the CWG's progression in the week leading up to the storm with links to the actual articles. Edited to add: And take a look at this specific article from 5-days before the blizzard: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/17/potential-for-major-winter-storm-late-next-week-but-also-major-question-marks/?utm_term=.227e4482cb58 Yes, the models were locking onto the big storm idea, but the details were far from settled. That Euro ensemble pic still showed a wide range of low positions even though the mean was near ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Check this out. 12z had a cluster in OH 18z doesn't have a single one making it north of KY Hey Bob, I'm curious - although the positioning of the low got better from 12z to 18z, the thermals for east of 95 seem to have gotten worse on both the op and the ensembles. Could you help me understand why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: And before I get a bunch of posts thinking I said it will change to rain that's the bigger threat but unless something goes seriously wrong any change to non snow would come after a very good thump first. And even that may not happen if the east 2/3 of the guidance envelope is accurate. If your west of the fall line your even more safe. I would be worried if I was 30 miles east of 95 but it's mid march and when do they not have to worry about mix there? I totally get it. I feel it too. The anxiety. It's been such crap all year. Wanting this to hurry up. Finding rediculous nonsense to worry about. But things look about as good as we can hope right now. When you have to think hard to figure out what the bigger threat to not getting at least a 6-12" dump is, then things are pretty good. There is always a chance it goes wrong. But there is no actual sign of that right now. It is a discussion thread, so it's worthy of discussion. It makes me comfortable to have the discussion, highlights the strengths of the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 This includes the follow up threats Day 6-9 which jump the mean another 3". That right there is lol for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, B-Paq said: Hey Bob, I'm curious - although the positioning of the low got better from 12z to 18z, the thermals for east of 95 seem to have gotten worse on both the op and the ensembles. Could you help me understand why? There was a significant improvement in the mid levels on 18z vs 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It is a discussion thread, so it's worthy of discussion. It makes me comfortable to have the discussion, highlights the strengths of the setup. I'm not trying to stop the discussion. My intent was to calm nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I haven't seen quality snow on snow in years IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GEFS probabilities: 1" 99.9% 3" 80% 6" 50% 12" 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Ehh, I count 8 NW track city screwjobs, more than 12z. The 18z GEFS was better in every category compared 12z. I'm not seeing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: For another thread but worth mentioning the gefs has another coastal signal after day 8 GFS had something poppin yesterday for next Sunday. Didn't even look today. We do 1 week of winter well though!! LOL Let's get Tuesday first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: GEFS probabilities: 1" 99.9% 3" 80% 6" 50% 12" 30% This is for DC, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Let's keep this thread on Tuesday and not jump ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, yoda said: This is for DC, correct? Yes, for our backyard. Higher probabilities north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nice tightening from 12z. Just excellent The key is do more members make landfall in NE like the OP or keep it off the coast of ME like the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not trying to stop the discussion. My intent was to calm nerves. Of course. And those discussions calm mine. You guys don't sugar coat things. Your confidence gives me confidence even in this god awful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: The key is do more members make landfall in NE like the OP or keep it off the coast of ME like the euro? Why is the "key" what tha storm does in New England? Looking for some mega wrap around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The 18z GEFS was better in every category compared 12z. I'm not seeing the same thing. The 18z individual snowmaps do show a decent amount of naso great solutions. More then I remember seeing earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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