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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

 


I am gonna delete this post. ;) we don't need that logic in here. It gets the weenies riled up

 

:bike:

I gotta tell you that the euro has really got me excited.  I sooooooo want to see that low in the Tn valley weaken or disappear.  I think our low could really get going if it weren't for that.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yes, and that is a great point, the time stamp.  The CMC threw out that, at the time, crazy solution for Sunday at about 144-120 hrs, somewhere in there. By this timeframe the others also were killing it off.  You're correct.  We are about 60 hours from a point of no return.  I'm glad you posted that.  Gives me a better confidence.

This is not the signature of a storm likely to miss us to the east. Could it sure but there is very little evidence to worry about that.  For 95 I'm still way more worried about a west trend. But given this track DC actually has an advantage over NYC and Boston there. Look how much closer to danger they are. 

IMG_0881.thumb.PNG.e8b905a807d2eb20dbbf1ecc0cfcf921.PNG

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And before I get a bunch of posts thinking I said it will change to rain that's the bigger threat but unless something goes seriously wrong any change to non snow would come after a very good thump first. And even that may not happen if the east 2/3 of the guidance envelope is accurate.  If your west of the fall line your even more safe. I would be worried if I was 30 miles east of 95 but it's mid march and when do they not have to worry about mix there?  

I totally get it. I feel it too. The anxiety. It's been such crap all year. Wanting this to hurry up. Finding rediculous nonsense to worry about. But things look about as good as we can hope right now. When you have to think hard to figure out what the bigger threat to not getting at least a 6-12" dump is, then things are pretty good. 

There is always a chance it goes wrong. But there is no actual sign of that right now. 

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Since people have been asking about the models leading up to last year's blizzard, I'm putting this link here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/25/the-forecast-for-snowzilla-was-stellar-in-almost-every-way/?utm_term=.ba66ed46858b

It has a concise summary of the CWG's progression in the week leading up to the storm with links to the actual articles. 

Edited to add: And take a look at this specific article from 5-days before the blizzard: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/17/potential-for-major-winter-storm-late-next-week-but-also-major-question-marks/?utm_term=.227e4482cb58

Yes, the models were locking onto the big storm idea, but the details were far from settled. That Euro ensemble pic still showed a wide range of low positions even though the mean was near ideal. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Check this out. 12z had a cluster in OH

X9Uerh.jpg

 

18z doesn't have a single one making it north of KY

 

09aanw.jpg

 

Hey Bob, I'm curious - although the positioning of the low got better from 12z to 18z, the thermals for east of 95 seem to have gotten worse on both the op and the ensembles.  Could you help me understand why?  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

And before I get a bunch of posts thinking I said it will change to rain that's the bigger threat but unless something goes seriously wrong any change to non snow would come after a very good thump first. And even that may not happen if the east 2/3 of the guidance envelope is accurate.  If your west of the fall line your even more safe. I would be worried if I was 30 miles east of 95 but it's mid march and when do they not have to worry about mix there?  

I totally get it. I feel it too. The anxiety. It's been such crap all year. Wanting this to hurry up. Finding rediculous nonsense to worry about. But things look about as good as we can hope right now. When you have to think hard to figure out what the bigger threat to not getting at least a 6-12" dump is, then things are pretty good. 

There is always a chance it goes wrong. But there is no actual sign of that right now. 

It is a discussion thread, so it's worthy of discussion.  It makes me comfortable to have the discussion, highlights the strengths of the setup.

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3 minutes ago, B-Paq said:

Hey Bob, I'm curious - although the positioning of the low got better from 12z to 18z, the thermals for east of 95 seem to have gotten worse on both the op and the ensembles.  Could you help me understand why?  

There was a significant improvement in the mid levels on 18z vs 12z?

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

For another thread but worth mentioning the gefs has another coastal signal after day 8:ph34r:

GFS  had something poppin yesterday for next Sunday.  Didn't even look today. We do 1 week of winter well though!!  LOL  Let's get Tuesday first.   :D

 

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