March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS has a potent clipper zipping through on Thurs. Yes, I'm greedy for snow on snow. 

Heh!  Yeah, it actually goes underneath us in that flow, and it's quite cold at the surface still through Thursday.  Maybe 1-2" it looks like...

[osfan24]

That GFS run was actually significantly drier overall. Guessing it's just a hiccup. A lot of totals northeast of us really cut back, at least on Kuchara.

[eurojosh]

Just now, osfan24 said:

That GFS run was actually significantly drier overall. Guessing it's just a hiccup. A lot of totals northeast of us really cut back, at least on Kuchara.

Drier - or further west north of us giving more folks rain in new England and coastal nj?

[H2O]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS has a potent clipper zipping through on Thurs. Yes, I'm greedy for snow on snow. 

Not that this storm is like Jan 96, that one had a nice 3-4" clipper swing through mid week. Would be very similar 

[PDIII]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

That GFS run was actually significantly drier overall. Guessing it's just a hiccup. A lot of totals northeast of us really cut back, at least on Kuchara.

This is the mid Atlantic sub forum... so wetter means wetter for us.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Bernie had an interesting point about this. He said the northern stream is hanging back on the Euro and he is concerned that it might allow the coastal storm to escape out to sea rather than move up the coast. With that seemingly happening with the GFS, I wonder if that's a legit concern.

???

But that's not what's happening with the GFS (or did you mean the CMC earlier?).  It's a bit east of 12Z (which was actually inland near the MD/DE border, too close for comfort), and runs up the coast, actually cutting into southern New England.  Now, that's not to say a track too far to the east isn't any concern, just that this is not being depicted on the GFS or the Euro, or even many of the respective ensemble members (though some showed a too easterly track).  I think others have said that's currently an outlier track.

[NaoPos]

verbatim, some issues with H7 low transferring overhead. Would like to see that a little more south. That brings dry slot/temp issues into play. Again, strictly verbatim via 18z GFS

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That GFS run was actually significantly drier overall. Guessing it's just a hiccup. A lot of totals northeast of us really cut back, at least on Kuchara.

Um, what?  Why do we care about NE of us?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

verbatim, some issues with H7 low transferring overhead. Would like to see that a little more south. That brings dry slot/temp issues into play. Again, strictly verbatim via 18z GFS

Yes I saw that.  This is a good first step though towards the 12z EURO  so it'll be interesting to see what the 00z suite does.

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Um, what?  Why do we care about NE of us?

I thought it was drier for us initially, but then realized it was just a drier run overall.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

verbatim, some issues with H7 low transferring overhead. Would like to see that a little more south. That brings dry slot/temp issues into play. Again, strictly verbatim via 18z GFS

Maybe...but this is valid 18Z Tuesday, which would be after nearly all the precip here has occurred.  Going by the 2m temperatures shown, it goes just above freezing at the surface around I-95 and east, but cools after that as the low pulls northeast.  We get a little after 12 or 18Z but not much.

ETA:  But I think I see what you're saying...if it transfers farther south, we could score some wrap-around bands.

[yoda]

Just now, osfan24 said:

I thought it was drier for us initially, but then realized it was just a drier run overall.

Just reread what Deck Pic and Bob Chill said and leave it at that... we don't care about anyone outside this forum when it comes to snow

[NaoPos]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes I saw that.  This is a good first step though towards the 12z EURO  so it'll be interesting to see what the 00z suite does.

The euro has a better structure and positioning of the stacked system (surface, 850,700mb lows) and earlier developed. This GFS run did make some changes @ H5 that trended to a more euro type solution. (let the southern vort develop on its own and create these features, then let the H5 low pull it in, slow it down a la euro)

Not saying the euro is right or wrong here though. But these are things we should start seeing to clear up the next 48 hours.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

The euro has a better structure and positioning of the stacked system (surface, 850,700mb lows) and earlier developed. This GFS run did make some changes @ H5 that trended to a more euro type solution. (let the southern vort develop on its own and create these features, then let the H5 low pull it in, slow it down a la euro)

Not saying the euro is right or wrong here though. But these are things we should start seeing to clear up the next 48 hours.

Agreed on the second paragraph.  Hope we see the Euro solution verify.

[Amped]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Bernie had an interesting point about this. He said the northern stream is hanging back on the Euro and he is concerned that it might allow the coastal storm to escape out to sea rather than move up the coast. With that seemingly happening with the GFS, I wonder if that's a legit concern.

More concerned about a change to rain..   Only model that hat it OTS is the Cannadian, and it digs the NS too far east, not west. 

[PDIII]

So I am in.  the run to run consistency is there. all the models are showing a major snow storm. we have an excellent air mass to work with.  

Regardless of what happens with temps on tueday all the models are showing that initial thump of snow overnight.

if the cities see less than 4, I say its a bust. 6 to 10 would be a reasonable showing.... 

[cae]

The 18z GFS was drier for much of this forum, especially the eastern side.  It's because the storm shifted from an onshore to an offshore track.  It's a drier track, but probably also a safer one near the cities for temps and precipitation type.

[Bob Chill]

Maybe I'm too optimistic or something but I don't see a single thing to be "worried about" or "down about" with the 18z gfs. The biggest issue from 12z was cleared up. The mix line solidly shifted SE. NS low gave up earlier. Cold HP to the north was stronger. Coastal storm took a perfect track. I mean come on man. There were only good trends here. And the LEAD IS SHORTENING. 

The 18z gefs is not the final solution with precip and mix lines and all that stuff. But as a STEP towards the final solution...it was a great run. Heck, 0z can now actually take a small STEP BACK and we're still sitting pretty. What if 18z went further west than 12z but dumped more precip? Other than the far NW folks, who would be happy about that run? Not me. I would have hated it. 

[yoda]

Bob's new favorite model... the 18z DWD-ICON

 

 

[snowmagnet]

5 minutes ago, PDIII said:

So I am in.  the run to run consistency is there. all the models are showing a major snow storm. we have an excellent air mass to work with.  

Regardless of what happens with temps on tueday all the models are showing that initial thump of snow overnight.

if the cities see less than 4, I say its a bust. 6 to 10 would be a reasonable showing.... 

I feel like less than 6" would be a bust. The CMC made me really nervous this afternoon, but otherwise it seems like we have had fairly good consistency for about 36 hours. How does it compare to the model run consistency before the Jan '16 blizzard?   I remember feeling really confident about that one, but I think it was a Miller A, right?

[Bob Chill]

ICON is a big hit in the making. Thanks Yoda. I looked at it already but I'm sick of cached links/images so I'm done posting them. Am I doing something wrong or is it the forum? I'm definitely copying the correct link. Something goes wrong between that and making the post. 

[PDIII]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

I feel like less than 6" would be a bust. The CMC made me really nervous this afternoon, but otherwise it seems like we have had fairly good consistency for about 36 hours. How does it compare to the model run consistency before the Jan '16 blizzard?   I remember feeling really confident about that one, but I think it was a Miller A, right?

The January 2016 blizzard was spitting out 3 inches of total qpf for about 8 Days leading up to the storm. And it was really never any question about precipitation type. This storm although it has been pretty well prognosticating, it doesn't come anywhere near last year storm in terms of models locking onto it

[mappy]

I feel like less than 6" would be a bust. The CMC made me really nervous this afternoon, but otherwise it seems like we have had fairly good consistency for about 36 hours. How does it compare to the model run consistency before the Jan '16 blizzard?   I remember feeling really confident about that one, but I think it was a Miller A, right?

The CMC should t make anyone nervous. Especially since the Euro didn't really budge. So that's just silly.

Regarding the Jan storm last year, models were showing it a week out and never wavered.

[midatlanticweather]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Maybe I'm too optimistic or something but I don't see a single thing to be "worried about" or "down about" with the 18z gfs. The biggest issue from 12z was cleared up. The mix line solidly shifted SE. NS low gave up earlier. Cold HP to the north was stronger. Coastal storm took a perfect track. I mean come on man. There were only good trends here. And the LEAD IS SHORTENING. 

The 18z gefs is not the final solution with precip and mix lines and all that stuff. But as a STEP towards the final solution...it was a great run. Heck, 0z can now actually take a small STEP BACK and we're still sitting pretty. What if 18z went further west than 12z but dumped more precip? Other than the far NW folks, who would be happy about that run? Not me. I would have hated it. 

 

Well said bob! I want as many in the snow party as possible! 

[Bob Chill]

This one is for the dc proper folks. Panasonic 15 day meteogram...what's not to love?

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

The CMC should t make anyone nervous. Especially since the Euro didn't really budge. So that's just silly.

Regarding the Jan storm last year, models were showing it a week out and never wavered.

 

I get what you're saying, but don't shoot me for saying this.  Yes, the euro and its consistency gives me great confidence.  However, if anyone is still watching Sunday, that event is playing out very much like the CMC said it would while the gfs and euro had a good storm here.  When the CMC came out with that solution it was scoffed at.

I do think this is different with a strong sw creating this storm vs a weakling disturbance riding the leading edge of a cold airmass.

[snowmagnet]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

The CMC should t make anyone nervous. Especially since the Euro didn't really budge. So that's just silly.

Regarding the Jan storm last year, models were showing it a week out and never wavered.

 

I thought the Blizzard last year was modeled for about a week out, but wasn't sure. Wish they were all that easy.  I get really crazy when it comes to coastal snow possibilities around here. Glad to have found this forum since I usually drive my family and friends crazy before snowstorms.  

 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I get what you're saying, but don't shoot me for saying this.  Yes, the euro and its consistency gives me great confidence.  However, if anyone is still watching Sunday, that event is playing out very much like the CMC said it would while the gfs and euro had a good storm here.  When the CMC came out with that solution it was scoffed at.

I do think this is different with a strong sw creating this storm vs a weakling disturbance riding the leading edge of a cold airmass.

I get what you're saying too. And I would definitely feel more nervous if it was 24-36 hours ago when the CMC showed what it did. A lot of the important plates and silverware are set on the table by hr48-60 right now. Seeing the 18z gfs was a bit of a relief. You have the gfs/euro looking very similar right now and this is under d4. 

But there's still time for the wheels to come off. If 12z tomorrow locks into a big solution across the board then getting whiffed becomes a very slim chance. Gonna be a long 18 hours...lol

[mappy]

I get what you're saying, but don't shoot me for saying this.  Yes, the euro and its consistency gives me great confidence.  However, if anyone is still watching Sunday, that event is playing out very much like the CMC said it would while the gfs and euro had a good storm here.  When the CMC came out with that solution it was scoffed at.

I do think this is different with a strong sw creating this storm vs a weakling disturbance riding the leading edge of a cold airmass.

I am gonna delete this post. we don't need that logic in here. It gets the weenies riled up

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I get what you're saying too. And I would definitely feel more nervous if it was 24-36 hours ago when the CMC showed what it did. A lot of the important plates and silverware are set on the table by hr48-60 right now. Seeing the 18z gfs was a bit of a relief. You have the gfs/euro looking very similar right now and this is under d4. 

But there's still time for the wheels to come off. If 12z tomorrow locks into a big solution across the board then getting whiffed becomes a very slim chance. Gonna be a long 18 hours...lol

Yes, and that is a great point, the time stamp.  The CMC threw out that, at the time, crazy solution for Sunday at about 144-120 hrs, somewhere in there. By this timeframe the others also were killing it off.  You're correct.  We are about 60 hours from a point of no return.  I'm glad you posted that.  Gives me a better confidence.