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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Perfect destruction. Excellent run. Colder and wetter than 12. Better evolution and stronger vort. 

There's a bit more seperation between the northern stream and southern stream. That causes it to delay a neg tilt and dig deeper (southern stream that is).Then it explodes. That's a jump towards a Euro'esque solution.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Clearly a better run than 12z and started showing up early. HP to the N a little stronger. NS giving in a little earlier. Net result is a taintless destruction. 

I was concerned with the shortwave at first but it worked out nicely. Still on egg shells with the GFS though. Not much room for error.

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I like Tasselyer but I disagree that this is a classic miller B. It's a weird hybrid. The low off the se coast already exists and is independent of the NS low well in advance. It's more a marrying of 2 separate systems vs the NS low "giving birth" to the coastal. 

Your 100% right. I do understand that sometimes the pros have to craft their analysis to the general public but it irks me when they simplify things to the point of being flat wrong fundamentally. 

This is def a hybrid which ups our potential and reduces our risk somewhat. 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How verbatim should we take r/s line in these op runs?

It will keep moving around until game time, and then the high-res models might have a better handle on it.  It often sets up near I95 because the areas west of 95 have the advantage of elevation.

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This will be an interesting experiment for the Kuchera thing. March storm with warm air intruding at different times at multiple layers. In 18z GFS, you can basically take the fall line and add 5-10 miles SE before you hit a steep cut-off with the Kuchera method. Whereas straight up 10 to 1 snow ratios gives widspread 12"+ throughout the DMV area, well southeast as well. 

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2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Surface freezing line did push a bit west at 12Z Tuesday compared to the 12Z run, but not by a lot. Just west of I-95 now. 

Yes, it did...you can see it curve just northwest of the District (and I-95 in general up through NE MD) around 12Z Tuesday morning.  But it's like 33-34 degrees in that area.  The good news is that the 0C line at 850 is noticeably farther southeast compared to the 12Z run.  And looks downright c-o-l-d! Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in the wake of the system.

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Perfect destruction. Excellent run. Colder and wetter than 12. Better evolution and stronger vort. 

This was about a perfect run. I love that the major models gfs euro and U.K. seem to be honing in on a spread that we win from either goal post. Euro was about on the eastern edge on today's runs of the majors, and the 12z gfs was the west edge of the envelope. Yea a few outliers to the left or right within the ensembles but they always show up until inside 60 hours or so. But we do well with any of those options. All I want to see now is those outliers drop off in the next few runs then we can turn to the meso scale stuff inside 48 hours. 

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14 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

is this a cold air damning set up????

:huh: is this a real question or are you just trying to derail the thread again?

the answer is no.  this is a hybrid system, but it's mainly coming up/forming from the south.  not a bunch of moisture getting thrown over the mountains by a low to the West.

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12 minutes ago, Amped said:

Gfs clearly trending towards the euro,  it's digging the lakes low less every run and keeping the streams seprated as seen by the more elongated troff.

Bernie had an interesting point about this. He said the northern stream is hanging back on the Euro and he is concerned that it might allow the coastal storm to escape out to sea rather than move up the coast. With that seemingly happening with the GFS, I wonder if that's a legit concern.

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