stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Perfect destruction. Excellent run. Colder and wetter than 12. Better evolution and stronger vort. Yes..I figured it would be....Ok, I'll hold right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Clearly a better run than 12z and started showing up early. HP to the N a little stronger. NS giving in a little earlier. Net result is a taintless destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Perfect destruction. Excellent run. Colder and wetter than 12. Better evolution and stronger vort. There's a bit more seperation between the northern stream and southern stream. That causes it to delay a neg tilt and dig deeper (southern stream that is).Then it explodes. That's a jump towards a Euro'esque solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks great, but isn't this still pretty tight for S/E in particular? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Clearly a better run than 12z and started showing up early. HP to the N a little stronger. NS giving in a little earlier. Net result is a taintless destruction. I was concerned with the shortwave at first but it worked out nicely. Still on egg shells with the GFS though. Not much room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: I was concerned with the shortwave at first but it worked out nicely. Still on egg shells with the GFS though. Not much room for error. No, there isn't. It's good to see the GFS step towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Enough can't be said about the air mass leading into the storm. I love that we aren't chasing dropping temps in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Surface freezing line did push a bit west at 12Z Tuesday compared to the 12Z run, but not by a lot. Just west of I-95 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nice shift east on the GFS, more in line with the GEFS mean. The low stays offshore this run. Edit: GFS is still slightly faster than the Euro bringing the storm up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looking at sounding per pivotalwx, 96hr has the warmest temp of 33 at the surface for near DC. Column is below or at 32 the whole way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like Tasselyer but I disagree that this is a classic miller B. It's a weird hybrid. The low off the se coast already exists and is independent of the NS low well in advance. It's more a marrying of 2 separate systems vs the NS low "giving birth" to the coastal. Your 100% right. I do understand that sometimes the pros have to craft their analysis to the general public but it irks me when they simplify things to the point of being flat wrong fundamentally. This is def a hybrid which ups our potential and reduces our risk somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 How verbatim should we take r/s line in these op runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 is this a cold air damning set up???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 difference from 12z to 18z is the LP goes from over the Delmarva to off OC by about 75/100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, H2O said: Looking at sounding per pivotalwx, 96hr has the warmest temp of 33 at the surface for near DC. Column is below or at 32 the whole way up. It's about as perfect as we can want. Basically time to start putting more weight in OP vs ensembles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10:1 10:1 seems to underplay the rain-snow line, Kuchera seems to overplay the amount of snow west of DC. Either way, I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: How verbatim should we take r/s line in these op runs? It will keep moving around until game time, and then the high-res models might have a better handle on it. It often sets up near I95 because the areas west of 95 have the advantage of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Definitely a little better than 12z. I though the snow totals might be significantly higher along 95 given some of the play by play, but it did come up a few inches from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This will be an interesting experiment for the Kuchera thing. March storm with warm air intruding at different times at multiple layers. In 18z GFS, you can basically take the fall line and add 5-10 miles SE before you hit a steep cut-off with the Kuchera method. Whereas straight up 10 to 1 snow ratios gives widspread 12"+ throughout the DMV area, well southeast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: near perfect track....epic run I'll say - it ends in heavy rain for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Surface freezing line did push a bit west at 12Z Tuesday compared to the 12Z run, but not by a lot. Just west of I-95 now. Yes, it did...you can see it curve just northwest of the District (and I-95 in general up through NE MD) around 12Z Tuesday morning. But it's like 33-34 degrees in that area. The good news is that the 0C line at 850 is noticeably farther southeast compared to the 12Z run. And looks downright c-o-l-d! Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in the wake of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gfs clearly trending towards the euro, it's digging the lakes low less every run and keeping the streams seprated as seen by the more elongated troff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Perfect destruction. Excellent run. Colder and wetter than 12. Better evolution and stronger vort. This was about a perfect run. I love that the major models gfs euro and U.K. seem to be honing in on a spread that we win from either goal post. Euro was about on the eastern edge on today's runs of the majors, and the 12z gfs was the west edge of the envelope. Yea a few outliers to the left or right within the ensembles but they always show up until inside 60 hours or so. But we do well with any of those options. All I want to see now is those outliers drop off in the next few runs then we can turn to the meso scale stuff inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS has a potent clipper zipping through on Thurs. Yes, I'm greedy for snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 So how's the wind looking during this event? Seems decent (10-20 mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: is this a cold air damning set up???? is this a real question or are you just trying to derail the thread again? the answer is no. this is a hybrid system, but it's mainly coming up/forming from the south. not a bunch of moisture getting thrown over the mountains by a low to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 One things for sure, this is going to be a juicy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Amped said: Gfs clearly trending towards the euro, it's digging the lakes low less every run and keeping the streams seprated as seen by the more elongated troff. Bernie had an interesting point about this. He said the northern stream is hanging back on the Euro and he is concerned that it might allow the coastal storm to escape out to sea rather than move up the coast. With that seemingly happening with the GFS, I wonder if that's a legit concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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