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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

It's a radar reflectivity simulation, the scale is a measure of how heavily snow/sleet/zr/rain would be falling.

Probably has something to do with the fact that that region goes from 1-9 inches in 3 hours (81-84) on the NAM...

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19 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Before someone goes ape sh$t and yells at me for posting the hour 84 NAM I have a real question about this... 

On the NAM...  on TT it gives a scale for snow on the bottom right hand corner... what is that scale measuring... and has anyone seen pink depicted for snow before? 

It says mm/hr but 14 mm is about .55 inches of snow... doesnt seem right

 

Screen Shot 2017-03-10 at 3.54.12 PM.png

I believe that's mm/hr of QPF in the form of snow. Makes sense that a half inch of QPF per hour would be the top of the scale. 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

For anyone sweating the 18z NAM, and they should know better, the 18z parallel NAM, which will become the operational NAM later next week, has a coastal low just like all of the other guidance.

 

Is that the one based off the 3k NAM nest?

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Great video from Bernie. He seems a little bearish south of NYC, but he isn't even all that bullish north of there and is generally pretty conservative with amounts so who knows. Love his breakdowns though.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/expert-forecasts/snowstorm-early-next-week-for-the-northeast/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4

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11 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

Is that the one based off the 3k NAM nest?

        It's the other way around.    This is the 12 km parent  parallel NAM, and the 3 km nest is driven by the parent.    TT only shows the parallel nest, but you can see the NAM parent on mageval.ncep.noaa.gov  (it's the NAM on that page).

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I like Tasselyer but I disagree that this is a classic miller B. It's a weird hybrid. The low off the se coast already exists and is independent of the NS low well in advance. It's more a marrying of 2 separate systems vs the NS low "giving birth" to the coastal. 

I was wondering about that, because someone posted a discussion this morning from WPC that said it was a combination of Miller A and B.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

It didn't look that much further south to me.  Maybe hair

Every little bit counts. 1032 isobar to our north is further south. Both point towards at least a little less worry with temps. Just speculating though. We'll know in a few minutes. 

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5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

This isn't 3/5/13...GFS has DCA 39/14 at 5 pm

 

heck, that's not even 3/93 (not comparing this to that, but just saying that is an extremely favorable temp profile for this area before a storm).  really can't beat that in march.

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