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March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)


psuhoffman

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  On 3/11/2017 at 6:51 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don't say I didn't tell you.  I cant quote it because it's in a locked med/long range thread but this is exactly what I posted.  The upper levels on this thing aren't anywhere close to what they were two days ago, and the southern trough isn't digging anywhere near as deep as it was just yesterday.  This is the seasonal trend.  Energy ends up way weaker than modeled.  I suspect the weakening trend continues, unless perhaps once the energy is onshore it is stronger than being modeled.

Remember when "triple phase" was being thrown out there.

The next time somebody from the Shenandoah valley tells people how a storm fails out here, maybe they won't scoff.  We might not be able to forecast for the cities but we can damn sure do it out here.  At this point we'd probably be better off hoping the Tn valley low is as strong as possible and hope we get a thump on the front end.

Lol.

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Agree 100%. You know my thoughts on these type of events. Been talking about it for days.

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  On 3/11/2017 at 6:47 PM, ers-wxman1 said:
I have posted reasoning for days haven't you been reading? 



As a red tagger, it should be expected people will ask you for your input. Some may not read this thread all the time, so perhaps you could be a bit more respectful when asked your professional opinion instead of being rude.


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3/15/14 the high was 70.  3/16/14, the low was 40 and the high was 48.  When the precip started I was 42/24.  about 8 hours later I was 25 with +SN piling up on major arteries.  All I care about is the storm itself.  Antecedent conditions this weekend are not hostile to accumulations at all.

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  On 3/11/2017 at 7:20 PM, HighStakes said:

That's pretty solid. I think we all would sign up for that. 

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for sure.  I don't have the members yet, but the orientation of the precip is better.  The low doesn't get shunted east as dramatically as the OP.  It's colder than the OP.  And it drives decent moisture well to the north and west of the OP.

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  On 3/11/2017 at 7:22 PM, Deck Pic said:

for sure.  I don't have the members yet, but the orientation of the precip is better.  The low doesn't get shunted east as dramatically as the OP.  It's colder than the OP.  And it drives decent moisture well to the north and west of the OP.

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Yes, this is exactly what we should take from the mean... we will find out how many members smash us in a little bit 

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  On 3/11/2017 at 7:18 PM, Deck Pic said:

EPS Mean..West of the OP....It's also colder than the OP, 29-31 overnight for DC metro.  

 

 

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Where do I sign on the dotted line? Quick dump of ~1" QPF mostly overnight and below freezing column. I could care less that it's not a 2" QPF bomb if we can get this scenario. 

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